Analyzing The QBs For 2012
Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:48 am
The NFFC is the only High Stakes Fantasy Football league where quarterbacks receive 6 points per passing TD. Why do we give QBs 6 points per passing touchdown rather than just 4 or 3 points to make them less valuable? The reason is simple: Because that's what they earn on the playing field and because THEY ARE SO VALUABLE.
Determining when to take a quarterback in the NFFC and where you can get the most value is one of the biggest decisions you have to make each year. It's not an easy decision and sometimes it works well when you take a QB early (Aaron Rodgers last year 13th overall) or when you take a QB late (Cam Newton, ADP of 210 last year). Sometimes you get burned with an early round QB (Michael Vick, ADP of 16 last year) and sometimes you get burned with one late (Sam Bradford, ADP of 98).
I don't think there is a perfect formula here, but since your QB is going to score 300 or so points for you to be successful (including a bye week fill-in), you'll need to make sure you have that position covered fully or you won't win in the NFFC. Plain and simple there folks. So get a good one at a good value in the draft and then pray for good health.
But one thing you can say about the QB position is that it's much harder to find a diamond in the rough here than at any other position. Yes, last year we did see Cam Newton and Tim Tebow emerge and surprise us in a big way. But it's tougher here to find a starting, productive every week QB after Draft Day than it is at the other skill positions. Starting RBs or WRs or TEs emerge regularly due to injuries and teams can win with a great FAAB pickup like Victor Cruz at those positions. But it doesn't happen as much at QB.
So you need a good starting QB and one who hopefully can stay in your lineup and productive for weeks on end.
Last year was a mixed bag of results at the QB position, but maybe we can learn a little something from past history. Let's look at last year's ADPs, last year's scoring for the position and their weekly averages, and then let's look at this year's ADP. Maybe we can find some correlations that can help us all on Draft Day. Okay, first the past:
2011 NFFC ADP for QBs:
1. Aaron Rodgers - 13
2. Michael Vick - 16
3. Tom Brady - 24
4. Philip Rivers - 27
5. Drew Brees - 29
6. Tony Romo - 46
7. Peyton Manning - 59
8. Matt Ryan - 60
9. Matt Schaub - 61
10. Ben Roethlisberger - 64
11. Matthew Stafford - 72
12. Eli Manning - 89
13. Josh Freeman - 92
14. Sam Bradford - 98
15. Joe Flacco - 109
16. Jay Cutler - 118
17. Kevin Kolb - 124
18. Mark Sanchez - 137
19. Matt Cassel - 140
20. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 154
NFFC QB Scoring Points In 2011, Average Points Per Game
1. 1 Aaron Rodgers - 539.8 points, 35.9 points per game
2 Drew Brees - 504.4 points, 31.5 ppg
3 Tom Brady - 476.7 points, 29.7 ppg
4 Cam Newton - 455.7 points, 28.4 ppg
5 Matthew Stafford - 436.7 points, 27.2 ppg
6 Eli Manning - 371.4 points, 23.2 ppg
7 Matt Ryan - 370.9 points, 23.1 ppg
8 Tony Romo - 368 points, 23.0 ppg
9 Philip Rivers - 347.6 points, 21.7 ppg
10 Mark Sanchez - 330.4 points, 20.6 ppg
11 Ryan Fitzpatrick - 307.1 points, 19.1 ppg
12 Ben Roethlisberger - 306.8 points, 20.4 ppg
13 Michael Vick - 287 points, 22.0 ppg
14 Joe Flacco - 284.9 points, 17.8 ppg
15 Andy Dalton - 282.8 points, 17.6 ppg
16 Josh Freeman - 274.9 points, 18.3 ppg
17 Alex Smith - 261 points, 16.3 ppg
18 Matt Hasselbeck - 250 points, 15.6 ppg
19 Tim Tebow - 249.8 points, 19.2 ppg
20 Colt McCoy - 229.5 points, 17.6 ppg
2012 NFFC QBs ADPs
1. Aaron Rodgers, 2
2. Tom Brady, 6
3. Drew Brees, 9
4. Matthew Stafford, 11
5. Cam Newton, 17
6. Michael Vick, 34
7. Tony Romo, 44
8. Eli Manning, 52
9. Philip Rivers, 53
10. Peyton Manning, 54
11. Matt Ryan, 57
12. Ben Roethlisberger, 69
13. Robert Griffin III, 80
14. Jay Cutler, 81
15. Matt Schaub, 85
16. Josh Freeman, 98
17. Carson Palmer, 105
18. Andy Dalton, 107
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick, 113
20. Joe Flacco, 115
First, let's analyze last year: Rodgers and Vick were first round picks and only one panned out for fantasy owners. Rodgers was a bargain at #13 overall as he led all QBs in scoring average at an incredible 35.9 ppg. Brees was a bargain at #29 and Rivers was a disappointment just before him. The real bargains were Stafford at 72, Eli at 89 and Cam Newton at 210. Nobody was a bigger bargain than Cam at 210, while Tim Tebow was the best FAAB pickup among all QBs. Of the Top 14 QBs taken last year, 11 finished in the Top 14 in QB points; Cam, Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick slipped into the Top 14.
Is there anyone in this year's ADP who could be the bustout performers that Stafford or Newton or Tebow was last year? Could Romo be this year's Drew Brees? Could Peyton be this year's Matthew Stafford? Could RGIII be this year's Cam Newton? Could Carson Palmer lead a new group into the Top 14?
I don't have the answers, but I'd be interested in your thoughts about the QB position. The NFFC puts more value on them, so let's lead off with the QBs as we analyze each position thoroughly. Enjoy and I look forward to your feedback.
Determining when to take a quarterback in the NFFC and where you can get the most value is one of the biggest decisions you have to make each year. It's not an easy decision and sometimes it works well when you take a QB early (Aaron Rodgers last year 13th overall) or when you take a QB late (Cam Newton, ADP of 210 last year). Sometimes you get burned with an early round QB (Michael Vick, ADP of 16 last year) and sometimes you get burned with one late (Sam Bradford, ADP of 98).
I don't think there is a perfect formula here, but since your QB is going to score 300 or so points for you to be successful (including a bye week fill-in), you'll need to make sure you have that position covered fully or you won't win in the NFFC. Plain and simple there folks. So get a good one at a good value in the draft and then pray for good health.
But one thing you can say about the QB position is that it's much harder to find a diamond in the rough here than at any other position. Yes, last year we did see Cam Newton and Tim Tebow emerge and surprise us in a big way. But it's tougher here to find a starting, productive every week QB after Draft Day than it is at the other skill positions. Starting RBs or WRs or TEs emerge regularly due to injuries and teams can win with a great FAAB pickup like Victor Cruz at those positions. But it doesn't happen as much at QB.
So you need a good starting QB and one who hopefully can stay in your lineup and productive for weeks on end.
Last year was a mixed bag of results at the QB position, but maybe we can learn a little something from past history. Let's look at last year's ADPs, last year's scoring for the position and their weekly averages, and then let's look at this year's ADP. Maybe we can find some correlations that can help us all on Draft Day. Okay, first the past:
2011 NFFC ADP for QBs:
1. Aaron Rodgers - 13
2. Michael Vick - 16
3. Tom Brady - 24
4. Philip Rivers - 27
5. Drew Brees - 29
6. Tony Romo - 46
7. Peyton Manning - 59
8. Matt Ryan - 60
9. Matt Schaub - 61
10. Ben Roethlisberger - 64
11. Matthew Stafford - 72
12. Eli Manning - 89
13. Josh Freeman - 92
14. Sam Bradford - 98
15. Joe Flacco - 109
16. Jay Cutler - 118
17. Kevin Kolb - 124
18. Mark Sanchez - 137
19. Matt Cassel - 140
20. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 154
NFFC QB Scoring Points In 2011, Average Points Per Game
1. 1 Aaron Rodgers - 539.8 points, 35.9 points per game
2 Drew Brees - 504.4 points, 31.5 ppg
3 Tom Brady - 476.7 points, 29.7 ppg
4 Cam Newton - 455.7 points, 28.4 ppg
5 Matthew Stafford - 436.7 points, 27.2 ppg
6 Eli Manning - 371.4 points, 23.2 ppg
7 Matt Ryan - 370.9 points, 23.1 ppg
8 Tony Romo - 368 points, 23.0 ppg
9 Philip Rivers - 347.6 points, 21.7 ppg
10 Mark Sanchez - 330.4 points, 20.6 ppg
11 Ryan Fitzpatrick - 307.1 points, 19.1 ppg
12 Ben Roethlisberger - 306.8 points, 20.4 ppg
13 Michael Vick - 287 points, 22.0 ppg
14 Joe Flacco - 284.9 points, 17.8 ppg
15 Andy Dalton - 282.8 points, 17.6 ppg
16 Josh Freeman - 274.9 points, 18.3 ppg
17 Alex Smith - 261 points, 16.3 ppg
18 Matt Hasselbeck - 250 points, 15.6 ppg
19 Tim Tebow - 249.8 points, 19.2 ppg
20 Colt McCoy - 229.5 points, 17.6 ppg
2012 NFFC QBs ADPs
1. Aaron Rodgers, 2
2. Tom Brady, 6
3. Drew Brees, 9
4. Matthew Stafford, 11
5. Cam Newton, 17
6. Michael Vick, 34
7. Tony Romo, 44
8. Eli Manning, 52
9. Philip Rivers, 53
10. Peyton Manning, 54
11. Matt Ryan, 57
12. Ben Roethlisberger, 69
13. Robert Griffin III, 80
14. Jay Cutler, 81
15. Matt Schaub, 85
16. Josh Freeman, 98
17. Carson Palmer, 105
18. Andy Dalton, 107
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick, 113
20. Joe Flacco, 115
First, let's analyze last year: Rodgers and Vick were first round picks and only one panned out for fantasy owners. Rodgers was a bargain at #13 overall as he led all QBs in scoring average at an incredible 35.9 ppg. Brees was a bargain at #29 and Rivers was a disappointment just before him. The real bargains were Stafford at 72, Eli at 89 and Cam Newton at 210. Nobody was a bigger bargain than Cam at 210, while Tim Tebow was the best FAAB pickup among all QBs. Of the Top 14 QBs taken last year, 11 finished in the Top 14 in QB points; Cam, Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick slipped into the Top 14.
Is there anyone in this year's ADP who could be the bustout performers that Stafford or Newton or Tebow was last year? Could Romo be this year's Drew Brees? Could Peyton be this year's Matthew Stafford? Could RGIII be this year's Cam Newton? Could Carson Palmer lead a new group into the Top 14?
I don't have the answers, but I'd be interested in your thoughts about the QB position. The NFFC puts more value on them, so let's lead off with the QBs as we analyze each position thoroughly. Enjoy and I look forward to your feedback.