Portfolio Diversification?

lichtman · Post by **lichtman** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:32 am

I've got #4 pick on Saturday and #5 in the Gekko league next week. I definitely want to take Priest with the #4, but I think LT is just a shade behind him (names have been changed to protect the innocent).

Given only a slight difference in preceived value, am I better off diversifying my portfolio by not doubling up on Priest?

As the second draft progresses, I am sure to face the issue again and again -- unless I see someone as uncommon value, should I try to avoid picking them for both teams (assuming that I judge other available players as being virtually the same).

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 4:29 am

How to draft a fantasy team
Step 1: create a draftboard ranking players at each position based on expected value
Step 2: draft your team utilizing the board

You should follow the same steps for each draft. They are independent events and should not impact how you draft your other teams. The whole point to ranking players is to select the player that will likely produce the most value with each pick you take.

If you think Portis is a 20-point a game player and Alexander is a 19-point a game player, and if they are both available when you pick then you take Portis EVERY time in EVERY league. You have to trust your board; because if your board is accurate then by taking Alexander you are sacrificing points for no good reason.

If you don’t have the sack to create your own board and take risks then you have NO chance to win in any of your leagues. Because if you are correct on your assumptions about player’s values then you pass on them, the teams behind you will get more value from their picks than they should, and will therefore do better than you.

Jersey Dawg · Post by **Jersey Dawg** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 4:49 am

Interestingly enough, I just finished 2 drafts; one at 4 and one at 5. Oddly enough, I have the same exact first 2 round results. In draft one, I picked 4 and took "Priest". In draft 2, I had pick 5 and took "Priest" as well since pick 4 took who I had rated as my 5th choice in draft 1. In round 2 I also took the same players in each draft. I also have the same defense and very similar players at 2 other positions.

I agree with NNOY, pick the player you have ranked the highest and hope to win both leagues.

Pete

lichtman · Post by **lichtman** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 4:59 am

I posted this on the footballguys board as well. I don't necessarily agree with diversifying, but I was surprised at how uniformly negative the reaction has been.

NNOY -- what do you mean about making my own draft board? I have a great one that came with my Sporting News magazine. Those guys are professionals -- how could I hope to do any better?

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:09 am

I HATE diversifying. Some weeks you know you have to lose because your main guys are playing each other. It's one of the reasons I try to limit the number of teams that I have, so I can truly enjoy watching the game and rooting for my players.

That said, I wouldn't go crazy and reach to get the same guys. But if they are within a point or two, I take the same guy and go for the homerun. When you are wrong, you lose all your leagues, but when right you have a great season...and an enjoyable one because your allegiances aren't split.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:20 am

JerseyPaul,

I agree that you need to gauge when players on your board are likely to go. If you see a guy you really like projected to go in the 10th round or higher on every board then you should not take him in the 8th round in all your leagues.

I generally do 5-6 leagues a year and end up with a handful of guys on at least four of my teams. But I am careful to get a feel for where others have my players ranked. It’s always nice when you have two players next to each other on your board and you end up getting both of them in the late rounds.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:32 am

I try to draft the same players in every draft. Oh ya, I use ESPN fantasy football rankings for all my leagues. Makes it easier that way.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:44 am

The reason you don’t simply use a service’s draftboard is the same reason you don’t simply bet the money line on every NFL favorite each week. The chalk picks don’t always come through, that holds true for both players and teams performances.

I co-host a weekly fantasy league show on http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com (tonight at 7pm EDT) and I founded the fantasy sports website http://www.drafthelp.com (shameless self-plugs but it helps me make my point here.) So, I of course make my own board each year since I need to make an attempt at being privy to all that encompasses fantasy sports. However, long before any of that I made my own draftboard going back as far as I can remember. (We actually have some stuff on the site about the importance of making draftboards and how to do it.)

You need to add your own opinion to the “experts” advice. As you will see from competing in this league in the days of perfect information on the Internet many of the “experts” are as useless Dan Marino will be to your fantasy team this year. A lot of these guys do certainly know their stuff and they often get information before anyone else, however there are plenty of people outside of the industry’s inner circle that will dominate them in this league.

I like many of the “fringe experts” live outside the inner circle of the industry. If the truth be known about 20% of these guys are sharp, on the money guys (from what I’ve seen the Krause guys fit this bill), I’d say 60% of the “experts” do nothing more than filter advice and information they pick up from sources any of us can access, and the remaining 20% are idiots. What separates the majority of these guys from everyone else is marketing. They tout this and tout that, but leagues like the NFFC force them into showing substance. Keep a close eye on the standings this year. My bet is that no more than 2-3 of the “experts” will crack the top-10. I believe the best fantasy players in the country actually reside outside of the industry, (most of them are likely IT people, financial or legal professionals.) In the end, winning a league is about math and statistics NOT marketing, and this is the perfect venue for such proof to be verified.

johnbriganti · Post by **johnbriganti** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:32 am

nnoy,

Well said. Using some "commercial" ranking sheet may be okay for the novice owner or someone playing in a free league, but when you take the next step and want to compete with the pros you need to have a little more amunition.

That amunition includes instinct, logic and the ability to decide what position at a specific pick will bring the most value.

Playing with the best one needs to do a little more work.

Signed,
An Engineer in Mn (John)

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:33 am

is ESPN's rankings good enough? please advise. i only have another day till draft. help?