How About Those Rookies This Year?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Doug Martin's explosive 36.4 point performance last night made me stand up and take notice of this year's incredible rookie class. It's not too often that you are rewarded for going ALL IN on rookies, but this year could be the exception. Take a look at the list of rookies below and their ADPs in our NFFC 12-team drafts and let me know if you're impressed or not. Many of these players are providing great fantasy value:

Trent Richardson (ADP of 27), 15.5 NFFC points per game
Doug Martin (ADP of 35), 16.6 ppg, 4th among RBs
Justin Blackmon (ADP of 76), 4.7 ppg
David Wilson (ADP of 95), 2.1 ppg
RG III (ADP of 110), 28.7 ppg, 3rd among QBs
Kendall Wright (ADP of 117), 11.0 ppg
Andrew Luck (ADP of 127), 24.2 ppg
Russell Wilson (ADP of 145), 16.0 ppg
Ronnie Hillman (ADP of 153)
Isiah Pead (ADP of 154)
Alshon Jeffrey (ADP of 161)
Coby Fleener (ADP of 165), 6.4 ppg
Michael Floyd (ADP of 176)
Brian Quick (ADP of 185)
Stephen Hill (ADP of 226), 9.3 ppg
Ryan Tannehell (ADP of 308), 16.7 ppg
Brandon Weeden (ADP of 327), 19.5 ppg
Greg Zuerlein, (ADP of 323), 12.1 ppg, 1st among kickers
Justin Tucker, (ADP of 328), 11.1 ppg
Blair Walsh, (ADP of 352), 10.4 ppg


That's a pretty impressive list of rookies. Sure, there's been some misses with Blackmon and Wilson, but there are a lot more hits here than misses. Pretty impressive if you ask me and the five rookie QBs starting have more than held their own. They look like a very solid group. And the three rookie kickers have provided even better value and look to be mainstays at that position for years to come. All in all, it's a VERY solid rookie class this year, wouldn't you say?

[Don Draper]

B.R.O.Y.L.E.S.

[Greg Ambrosius]

B.R.O.Y.L.E.S.

He is next up, no doubt about it.

I just mentioned him on SiriusXM and noted that in the NFFC Classic he went for $200-$400 and between $100 and $200 in the NFFC Primetime. I really liked this kid at Oklahoma and I'm rooting for him because of the knee injury. I hope he makes it all the way back because this was a potential first round pick before that injury.

[mattjb]

Kyle Rudolph isn't a rookie.

[Sandman62]

Just my opinion (which you did ask if we are impressed)...

As much fun as it is to watch some of these rookies blossom, I am not all that impressed with most of them for fantasy purposes.

RGIII: Stud. Similar to Cam and Tebow last year and Vick in past years, most of his production comes from running. Class act, great athlete, wise beyond his years, no doubt. No complaints, I'm sure from any of his owners, as he's exceeded expectations.

The other rookie QBs? More impressive as NFL starters than fantasy, where I doubt they're used regularly beyond occasional bye week replacements (which does serve a purpose, but to me, doesn't fall into the "impressive" [for fantasy] category). As a Browns fan, I definitely like what I'm seeing from Weeden though.

Doug Martin (actually 5th, not 4th, in avg PPG after last night's game): Definitely impressed watching him. Seems like a do-it-all RB, for sure. Before last night, he was averaging 13.3 PPG, which would have tied him for 21st. He was the 17th drafted RB by ADP. Will he continue averaging 16.6 like his average including last night or revert back closer to his first 6 games? Either way, I'm sure his owners are quite impressed and pleased. And his remaining schedule, and his current usage, do seem to pave the way for continued success.

Trent Richardson: Drafted as the 12th RB by ADP; though he's still 11th in PPG, he's had 4 great games and 3 awful ones. Plus he may not play these next 2 games, or at least may be minimized (or he plays and goes off!? Who really knows?) But if he doesn't produce these next couple weeks and bounces back and forth on the injury report the rest of the season, isn't this exactly why some people shied away from an NFL-unproven rookie RB with such a high ADP? Again though, as a Browns fan, I sure hope he can stay on the field with Weeden, despite my not owning him in fantasy.

Kendall Wright: No complaints. A nice WR3 or flex option, depending upon the league. ADP was WR47; currently WR46 in PPG. Right on the money. However, much of his production came before Britt was back. I have both of them on one team and am expecting Wright's production to be directly reduced by Britt's return going forward, as long as Britt stays healthy.

The kickers: Definitely impressed by these guys because of by how much they've exceeded ADP, which means, if you waited past the normal kicker run and grabbed these guys, you likely got to pad your bench at other positions. Or, more likely in most cases, we dumped our drafted kicker and grabbed one of them off waivers in the first few weeks.
ADPs/Actual: Zuerlein 19th/tied for 2nd, Tucker 20th/7th (6th if we ignore the new WAS kicker), Walsh 25th/9th (or 8th, again ignoring WAS kicker).
That said, the difference between K1 and K12 is about 2 PPG; yes, that 32 season points can certainly help, but maybe not that much. The real help with kickers though may be less about their PPG and more about their wild volatility. IOW, some kickers, especially these rookies, have had some HUGE games that have likely helped win some fantasy games.

Overall, I guess I respectfully disagree with "there are a lot more hits here than misses". To me, a "hit" is someone that has exceeded expectations enough to be an every-week start in my lineup - and there are precious few of those beyond the kickers.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Kyle Rudolph isn't a rookie.

So true. My bad. I don't follow those Vikings very closely!!

[Tom Kessenich]

isn't this exactly why some people shied away from an NFL-unproven rookie RB with such a high ADP?

I thought the primary reasoning was because the Browns were expected to be awful and a rookie RB on a bad offense wouldn't produce. I don't recall too many people predicting a significant injury and saying that's the reason why he wouldn't be a RB1. Richardson has proven that, when healthy, he's a stud and a legit RB1. None of that surprises me as I'm sure you well know. What has surprised me is how good Weeden has been. I didn't expect him to play this well this season. But with Weeden playing well and Josh Gordon looking good plus Richardson the Browns' offense isn't the disaster many expected it to be this season. Of course, they badly need Richardson to get healthy and it's fair to wonder if that will be the case the rest of the season due to his injury.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Overall, I guess I respectfully disagree with "there are a lot more hits here than misses". To me, a "hit" is someone that has exceeded expectations enough to be an every-week start in my lineup - and there are precious few of those beyond the kickers.

Always enjoy the dissenting view, Mike!! No problem on the disagreement, but as you can see from their ADPs many of these rookies weren't drafted with your criteria in mind. Their ADPs for the most part are below 120 and even RGIII (14th QB taken in Primetime leagues) and Luck (16th QB taken) weren't drafted as fulltime starters. My criteria would be a little different than yours and that goes for rookies or veterans: Are you getting greater value than expected with every pick? For the most part, the rookies are providing better value according to their ADPs than expected. And those kickers have greatly exceeded values. Remember, David Akers has an ADP of 164 and 12 kickers were picked 100+ spots before any of the rookies. So there's great value there.

And from a fantasy standpoint, I think Luck, RGIII, Richardson, Martin and many others are going to be major factors for years to come. That happens with every rookie class, of course, but it's not every year that they produce big-time right from Week 1 of their rookie season. I see more positives than negatives here, but that's just the sunny kind of guy I am.

[Sandman62]

isn't this exactly why some people shied away from an NFL-unproven rookie RB with such a high ADP?

I thought the primary reasoning was because the Browns were expected to be awful and a rookie RB on a bad offense wouldn't produce. I don't recall too many people predicting a significant injury and saying that's the reason why he wouldn't be a RB1. Richardson has proven that, when healthy, he's a stud and a legit RB1. None of that surprises me as I'm sure you well know. What has surprised me is how good Weeden has been. I didn't expect him to play this well this season. But with Weeden playing well and Josh Gordon looking good plus Richardson the Browns' offense isn't the disaster many expected it to be this season. Of course, they badly need Richardson to get healthy and it's fair to wonder if that will be the case the rest of the season due to his injury.

Agreed. I did think the Browns offense wouldn't be this good. But I also know I'd mentioned my opinion that RBs with no NFL history could hit the rookie wall or whatever, but NO history of non-injury certainly meant potential for more risk than a proven RB who plays most games.

[Sandman62]

My criteria would be a little different than yours and that goes for rookies or veterans: Are you getting greater value than expected with every pick?

To each their own Greg. But with the exception of the players I highlighted, I'm not that impressed because a guy on my bench who I hoped to not use except for byes now and then is beating his ADP by a few spots. IOW, I'm not getting that greater value because he's still bench-fodder.