How Many RBs Will Be 1st-Round Picks In 2013?

[Tom Kessenich]

We've had plenty of discussion about the RB position and how the lack of standout options resulted in a lot of different strategies in the first round of drafts this season. But while RB depth is still shaky more legitimate RB1s have emerged (or re-emerged in the case of Adrian Peterson) as this season has gone along. That has me wondering how many RBs will be taken in the first round next year? Here are the ones I think either are locks to be taken in the opening round or will merit strong consideration barring a major injury this season:

Arian Foster
Adrian Peterson
Ray Rice
LeSean McCoy
Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
Marshawn Lynch

I think those seven are locks for the first-round or would be on my board. Then you have some other potentially strong contenders such as:

Chris Johnson (if he finishes the way he's playing now he's locked back in as a first-round pick)
Jamaal Charles (a new coaching staff would help him immensely)
C.J. Spiller (may still be in a time share but such a dynamic player)

That's 10 RBs who have potential first-round value in my eyes. I think we're looking at another RB-dominated first round in 2013 with so many strong options potentially available. The end of the first round looks like a potential gold mine if you want to build a strong RB corps as you could get a strong RB1 in the first and another quality RB in the second. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a return to the old-school RB-RB approach in a lot of leagues next year.

What does everyone here think? Do you see a RB-dominated opening round the way I do next season? Are there other RBs who should be considered I didn't list? Someone I should remove? What says you?

[mattjb]

I make you right Tom.

The next question which on the list will be busts because we now statistically several of them will be.

[boutrous11]

matt i just read post 3 times and still don't what you're.

[boutrous11]

i think AJ Green and Calvin can be considered first round locks.

[chriseibl]

I think Spiller will for sure be a first round pick next year. Regardless of his situation, I think he'll have some people believing he can be a top 3 back if he can get more touches than Fred. I think people will shy away from Lynch just being unsure of when all that pounding he absorbs will catch up to him.

It will definitely be interesting to see if Chris Johnson can work his way back to the #8 pick or so after going nearly half a season with being a horrible bust.

[Tom Kessenich]

i think AJ Green and Calvin can be considered first round locks.

I agree. Then you wonder which QBs, if any, will go in the first round. No matter how it shakes out I think the end of the first round, early second round will have a lot of value.

[gorgo]

The number of rbs in the firsrt two rounds should return to the the pre-2013 qb frenzy levels and the tes will drop for the most part as well. The value of the top rbs is higher than ever with the point per reception especially with the running back by comittee trend. Getting as sure a return on your first two round investment as possible should make the first four rounds go back to being primarily rb and wr target rich. The players who waited for P Manning-- RGlll and A Luck are laughing all the way to the bank at the first round qb dementia this year.

[JETS SB]

As much as there is a lot of RB talent in the 1st round, I think many will tend to still take a WR tandem or top QB, then scoop up a few of the RB's left in the pool after the 1st round frenzy. Don't forget, we still have guys coming off injuries such as MJD, McFadden, Murray, Matthews, and Bradshaw, along with solid RB's such as CJ2K, Forte and Gore, and risers such as LeShoure, Ridley, and A Morris. Still a huge amount of RB talent for guys who wait.

I think one of the big questions next year is, where will guys like Newton and Stafford drop to, and will guys still draft Rodgers, Brady, and Brees in the 1st round. Even though there was big value in some of the later QBs this year such as Manning, Ryan, Luck, and RG3, I can see where 8 QBs could go in the 1st two rounds (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Ryan, Manning, Luck, Newton, Stafford). Maybe the final three hold out until the 3rd round, but that is still a lot of QBs going early.

All I know is, I am hoping the Jets go 1-15 next year and we get rid of Rex and draft us some Johnny Football!!!

[Sandman62]

I agree Al that there will likely still be plenty of owners who, realizing the 50:50 chances of early-RBs success, will prefer to wait til mid-rounds to face those odds.

As for the QBs, I also agree that we could see 7 or 8 drafted in the first few rounds; but should there be, with so much similarity after the true top tier?

If Stafford, Newton and Luck are in the early-round discussion, then why not also RGIII, Palmer and Dalton (currently all ahead of them in PPG) or Freeman and Roethlisberger (both less than 1 point behind them)? It's a rhetorical question though because I actually think that, after the true top tier QBs are drafted next year, Stafford may sniff round-2 draft status. And maybe RGIII too, perhaps for the same reasons Newton did this year (a perception of repeatable rushing TDs). But they'll both carry more risk than other QBs who'll be drafted early.

I agree that Stafford has yardage upside, based on what he did last year; plus he's on pace this year for over 4300 yards. But his TDs are pathetic. Welcome to tier 2.

Newton's big year last season was really more like half a big season, and largely based on his rushing TDs, which most would agree are very unrepeatable (take note RGIII and Luck lovers!). I highly doubt many will fall for that trap again. And if they do, even better for those who don’t.

Luck is on pace for over 4200 yards and looks like a real fine player. But even with his rushing TDs, he’d require a huge jump in passing TDs (on pace for just 16) to reach early-round status, IMO. Again, what's the likelihood that he repeats with a large number of rushing TDs again next year?

I believe there’s really only a small top tier of just 4 or 5 proven QBs. The rest are all pretty much the same and IMO shouldn’t be drafted until round 4 or 5 at the earliest in most cases. That doesn’t mean that I disagree that we could see another 2 or 3 drafted earlier; but I do think it could turn into an early-round draft mistake from which it’d be tough to recover. To me, this whole second tier is interchangeable for the most part with the likes of Romo, Rivers and Eli. Yes, one or two may pull away from the crowd, but good luck determining which from year to year.

Last year, the lack of OTAs seemed to affect defenses more negatively than offenses. Another part of the spike in QB production was due to further relaxing of the defenseless player rule. Or likely a combination of both. At any rate, here are some comparisons of QBs in last year's QB-friendly feeding frenzy vs. this year:

Last year:
• Yards: Three QBs eclipsed 5000 and another almost reached it. Two more were over 4600, and four more over 4000. That's ten over 4000, but with a clear two-tier distinction.
• TDs: The top QBs threw 46, 45, 41, 39; then there was a big dropoff to the next 5, who all threw between 26-31. Again, a clear two-tier distinction.
• NFFC Points: Five were between 471-530 (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, Newton); the next group started at 408. However, even within what most thought (by ADP) to be the top tier, the clear distinction was "consistent track record over a number of years", which Stafford and Newton lacked. I always felt that the top tier of QBs was really just the usual top 3, with Stafford, Vick and Ryan in the next tier.

This year
(and understand that even these on-pace numbers may not be reached, with bad weather still ahead):
• Yards: There are again a large number on pace for over 4000 (8), but they're all clustered between 4165-4555. The top 5 are between 4328-4555.
• TDs: Just two are on pace to reach 40, then a big dropoff to 34, 32, three 29s and two 27s.
• NFFC Points: Five are on pace for 399-463 (Brees, Ryan, Manning, Brady, Rodgers). Then a dropoff to 357. Again, we see the usual longtime consistent producers (welcome back, Peyton!), plus one newcomer. Perhaps Ryan will carry a little more risk next year as an early-round pick, like Stafford and Newton did this year? But I can see many people willing to take that risk, similar to how they did this year.

The bottom line is that in 2012, Stafford and Newton were attractive due to their single year of overachievement. Some people like to gamble that they’d repeat and drafted them early. There will be a similar group among next year’s QBs who’ll provide the same temptation. For me, I prefer to live by the “Don’t lose your league with who you draft in round 1” approach, and will not chase the glory of enjoying their first repeat. I’ll stick with the proven, consistent QBs, if my draft position leads me to a QB in round one. Of course, to each their own.

[JETS SB]

Maybe I am wrong but Luck's rushing TDs have all been short yardage and he just as well could have thrown short TDs in those circumstances. My point is , Luck is going to be a stud for years to come and probably a 1st or 2nd round pick every year. I'm my opinion RG3 and Newton will not be at Luck's level.