Is H2H Really The Bastion Of Fantasy Football?

[Greg Ambrosius]

It's been an interesting last couple of weeks in the NFFC despite what has turned out to be some of the most amazing league races we've ever held in our first 9 seasons. There have been a handful of threads asking for rules changes to prevent H2H championship teams from stealing playoff spots from "more worthy" teams. The "sky is falling" proposals began well before we saw the final results of the regular season, but you'd think all of fantasy football was coming apart by these posts.

The same type of rules discussions -- which are good by the way, don't get me wrong there -- are also taking place on our competitor's message boards. H2H is loathed by some owners in games that have only an 11-game regular season because so much money is at stake there based on one or two lucky matchups. It was the format that WCOFF started in 2002 with an 11-week regular season and is embraced by some in the industry.

I'll admit that I was way too "old school" when I devised the rules for the NFFC in 2004 because I put too much emphasis on the head to head records. Back in the first two seasons of the NFFC, we rewarded $5,000 to the league's H2H champion and $1,750 to the league's Total Points champion. We didn't even have a league playoff if the H2H champion had fewer points than the Total Points champion. That team lost out on a lot of prize money and then asked me "what the hell are you doing with this setup?"

I listened to our customers and changed the 14-team format to include Third Round Reversal and KDS, while also changing the league payouts to be equal for the H2H champion and the Total Points champion. And if two owners split those league titles then we created a three-week league playoff in Weeks 14-16 for the remaining prize money. I think it's the fairest way in the industry to determine the league's best team.

That being said, we look to tweak our rules every year to make them as fair as possible. Head-to-head definitely needs to be looked at every year and with 53 Main Event leagues between the Classic and Primetime we have a great sample size to see whether H2H is really as bad as everyone says it is. Maybe, just maybe, the most common way of deciding fantasy football leagues isn't as bad as others make it out to be. Let's see.

Again, the goal is to reward the most money to the best teams. It's also to have a playoff format that the masses can understand easily and quickly. There's also other contests in the space that we get compared to. It's possible that KDS and 3RR is already confusing, but we keep those in place because we think it helps owners fairly compete in each league. So doing anything too drastic with the playoffs needs to be looked at before making any changes.

Back to H2H.

In the NFFC Primetime:
19 of 35 leagues (54.3%) had the H2H champion as the Total Points champion
30 of 35 leagues (85.7%) had the H2H champion among the Top 3 in total points
5 of 35 leagues (14.3%) had the 3rd most points team miss the Championship Round (* an area we should look at)
2 teams earned a Wild Card spot for finishing 4th in points in their league but among the Top 15% overall
30 of 35 leagues (85.7%) still had H2H league titles up for grabs after Week 11
28 of 35 leagues (80%) still had H2H league titles up for grabs after Week 12
7 of 35 leagues (20%) finished with at least two teams tied for the H2H title

In the NFFC Classic:
6 of 18 leagues (33.3%) had the H2H champion as the Total Points champion
13 of 18 leagues (72.2%) had the H2H champion among the Top 3 in total points
5 of 18 leagues (27.8%) had the 3rd most points team miss the Championship Round (* an area we should look at)
0 teams earned a Wild Card spot in 2012, the first time that has happened
All 18 leagues still had H2H league titles up for grabs after Week 11
15 of 18 leagues (83.33%) still had H2H league titles up for grabs after Week 12
7 of 18 leagues (38.9%) finished with at least two teams tied for the H2H title

I've listed all of this as much for my own research as for you owners. It's important that we tweak our rules and payouts each year to make this contest as fair as possible. But the data shows that H2H titles have gone down to the wire, are competitive with many teams hanging in deep into the season, that our league playoff setup is needed to make sure we're paying the most money to the best team, and that most H2H teams are also among the highest scoring teams in the contest.

That being said, I don't like it that the 3rd highest scoring team in the league receives no league prize money AND misses a shot for some significant overall prize money. There's still a lot of good teams that were left out of the Championship Rounds and had we corrected that this year it would have added 5 teams to each contest (Primetime and Classic). That wouldn't have hurt the Championship Rounds at all.

So again, unless I'm missing something, H2H hasn't been the killer some had predicted. There is always going to be a lucky team here or there in any playoff setup, but for the most part it's worked for the NFFC. 43 of 53 leagues (81.1%) had their H2H champion also in the Top 3 in the league in total points. We also had 43 of 53 leagues with H2H titles still up for grabs heading into the final week of the regular season. Can we add a better safety net to protect top scoring teams? Yes. And that's where my thought process lies today.

Good luck to all of the Championship Round teams. Our focus should be on congratulating them and watching a historic playoff run. But I appreciate the passion and the thoughts that go into every discussion and I'm sure they will continue throughout. But now we have more facts to cite when trying to kill H2H or improve it in our national contests.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Just to add to my post above about the 5 teams in each contest that failed to earn any prize money because a H2H title team slipped in ahead of them, here's how they finished in comparison to the 3rd place team (2nd most points) in those leagues:

NFFC Classic
20.2 points behind 3rd place team
7.65 points behind 3rd place team
82.4 points behind 3rd place team
8.55 points behind 3rd place team
40.80 points behind 3rd place team

NFFC Primetime
37.75 points behind 3rd place team
43.8 points behind 3rd place team
6.8 points behind 3rd place team
65.35 points behind 3rd place team
32.90 points behind 3rd place team

There's no definitive conclusion here other than a few teams were very close to finishing 3rd and others were well behind. The 5 Classic teams finished 40th, 44th, 48th, 53rd and 83rd overall, so they obviously did a lot of things right. The five Primetime teams finished 85th, 94th, 97th, 120th and 145th overall. Again, some worthy teams there.

[wiljiro]

Greg,

My two cents -

Fantasy Football to me has always been about H2H. It was not until I started playing High Stakes that it became apparent how cruel, or unfair in some cases, that type of format could be. My local leagues all still run on a Head to Head / Tournament Playoff format.

That being said I think the NFFC does the best job of any other High Stakes League of keeping a fair balance between the importance of points and H2H. H2H determines the league champ, but ONLY if that H2H winner outscores the rest of their league after 13 weeks. If after 13 weeks you have the best H2H AND the most points, you deserve to be league champion.

If you are H2H champ, but you don't lead in points, then you will compete H2H against the team that is ahead of you.

What could possible by fairer or more logical than that??

Do I wish a third place team in OnLine would make some money for their effort, and have a chance at the "Dance"? Sure. Do I think a third place in points team in Prime Time deserves a bit of love? Absolutely. But there is no way to make everyone happy.

Much like the MLB playoffs no matter how many teams you add to the mix, their will always be someone looking in from the outside that will complain that the format was not fair to them. No matter where you put the cut line at Q School - There will be a player who does not get his card who will complain that more players should be allowed on the PGA tour.

I for one hope you listen to all the "Noise" on these boards, and take the advice to heart, but don't make any wholesale changes to format or pay structure. They are fine as they are.

I have a 6-7 Prime Time team that is in the dance, and lead my league in points, and has consistently been in the top 30 all season. I am a prime example of how the format benefited a team that deserved to be recognized.

On the other hand I have another team in Prime that lead it's league in points by over 150 going into the final week, but H2H was tied with another squad. A team we coincidentally were PLAYING that final week of the season. So we had a mini "Super Bowl" - How great is that?

I know two examples is a very small sample size, but I think they show, at least in my opinion, that the format works.

Good luck to everyone over the next three weeks, and someone please explain to me why the Packers just signed Ryan Grant.... Why not just sign Dorsey Levins and call it a day?

Peace,

Wiljiro

[JETS SB]

Greg,

My two cents -

Fantasy Football to me has always been about H2H. It was not until I started playing High Stakes that it became apparent how cruel, or unfair in some cases, that type of format could be. My local leagues all still run on a Head to Head / Tournament Playoff format.

That being said I think the NFFC does the best job of any other High Stakes League of keeping a fair balance between the importance of points and H2H. H2H determines the league champ, but ONLY if that H2H winner outscores the rest of their league after 13 weeks. If after 13 weeks you have the best H2H AND the most points, you deserve to be league champion.

If you are H2H champ, but you don't lead in points, then you will compete H2H against the team that is ahead of you.

What could possible by fairer or more logical than that??

Do I wish a third place team in OnLine would make some money for their effort, and have a chance at the "Dance"? Sure. Do I think a third place in points team in Prime Time deserves a bit of love? Absolutely. But there is no way to make everyone happy.

Much like the MLB playoffs no matter how many teams you add to the mix, their will always be someone looking in from the outside that will complain that the format was not fair to them. No matter where you put the cut line at Q School - There will be a player who does not get his card who will complain that more players should be allowed on the PGA tour.

I for one hope you listen to all the "Noise" on these boards, and take the advice to heart, but don't make any wholesale changes to format or pay structure. They are fine as they are.

I have a 6-7 Prime Time team that is in the dance, and lead my league in points, and has consistently been in the top 30 all season. I am a prime example of how the format benefited a team that deserved to be recognized.

On the other hand I have another team in Prime that lead it's league in points by over 150 going into the final week, but H2H was tied with another squad. A team we coincidentally were PLAYING that final week of the season. So we had a mini "Super Bowl" - How great is that?

I know two examples is a very small sample size, but I think they show, at least in my opinion, that the format works.

Good luck to everyone over the next three weeks, and someone please explain to me why the Packers just signed Ryan Grant.... Why not just sign Dorsey Levins and call it a day?

Peace,

Wiljiro

I agree that wholesale changes arent necessary and some level of H2H is necessary, if only for the excitement of the competition. My proposed changes were to expand the classic playoff teams from 3 to 4 teams (no additional payout for the 4th eligible team), adding one more points eligible team into the playoffs, in a 14 team contest. Can anyone tell me, in any sports industry, where expanding the playoff structure, allowing more teams to be eligible, has failed?

[Greg Ambrosius]

I'm not going to debate the merits of adding a 4th place team to the Championship Round in the NFFC Classic here right now, but obviously if you do that you're going to have a lot of teams ranked much lower in total points in the Championship Round than others NOT in the Championship Round. I can post the 4th place scores and overall rankings later, but not every 4th place team is among the top teams in overall points. I'll post that later.

Also, the difference between 3rd place Classic teams and 4th place teams is 31.19 points. The difference between 1st and 4th is 115.56 points. Again, I'm not saying that's a reason not to include more teams in the Championship Round, but it's opening up more debates with more teams. As Jared said earlier, this is the one contest where you really have a legitimate shot at the grand prize if you can get through the tough regular season.

Anyway, here were the average point totals per Classic league for the Top 4 scoring teams in 2012:

1st Place - 1,890.12 points per team
2nd Place - 1,835.8 points per team
3rd Place - 1,805.75 points per team
4th Place - 1,774.56 points per team

[HOF]

Have and always will play H2H before any other format.

I just hope that a few of your big boy spenders don't end up speaking for everyone and the current format is nixed.

Great info.

[CALI CARTEL]

H2H rewards teams who are consistent -- they may not put up 200 points every other week, but if they throw up 140 to 160, they'll be in the mix for a H2H win every week. Now, sometimes a team is consistently mediocre (or just plain bad) and runs into a cake-walk schedule and goes 11-2 with the 9th best points, it happens (how else can you explain the Cleveland Browns making the playoffs in 2002?).

On the other hand, teams with monster point totals tend to be volatile, while putting up 200 one week, they might be down around 130 the next, then 165, then 140, then 180, etc, etc. If those teams run into a couple rough weeks when they were in the 150+ range and lose, then their record won't represent their point total at all.

It's part of the game and needs to be looked at as such, teams will get lucky, but the consistent teams will tend to have records that more accurately reflect the level of their points scored.

[Coach JP]

Have and always will play H2H before any other format.

I just hope that a few of your big boy spenders don't end up speaking for everyone and the current format is nixed.

Great info.

Agreed. If I want a strictly points based league, I turn to MLB. A lot of excitement/joys/downs of fantasy football is playing a specific team and specific players. There's nothing better than rooting against certain players because your opponent has them. NFFC does a great job of balance, and rewards both H2H and points.

The H2H high stakes aspect is why I will be back, knowing I could get lucky some years and I could be on the short end of the stick in the luck department.

[JETS SB]

I'm not going to debate the merits of adding a 4th place team to the Championship Round in the NFFC Classic here right now, but obviously if you do that you're going to have a lot of teams ranked much lower in total points in the Championship Round than others NOT in the Championship Round. I can post the 4th place scores and overall rankings later, but not every 4th place team is among the top teams in overall points. I'll post that later.

Also, the difference between 3rd place Classic teams and 4th place teams is 31.19 points. The difference between 1st and 4th is 115.56 points. Again, I'm not saying that's a reason not to include more teams in the Championship Round, but it's opening up more debates with more teams. As Jared said earlier, this is the one contest where you really have a legitimate shot at the grand prize if you can get through the tough regular season.

Anyway, here were the average point totals per Classic league for the Top 4 scoring teams in 2012:

1st Place - 1,890.12 points per team
2nd Place - 1,835.8 points per team
3rd Place - 1,805.75 points per team
4th Place - 1,774.56 points per team

Yes and as in your illustration, several of those 3rd place teams (in points) did not make the playoffs this year in the Classic. To me, that cannot happen.

[kjduke]

In the NFFC Primetime:
30 of 35 leagues (85.7%) had the H2H champion among the Top 3 in total points

In the NFFC Classic:
13 of 18 leagues (72.2%) had the H2H champion among the Top 3 in total points

So out of 672 teams across two contests, 10 teams made the playoffs because of H2H.

Yeah, for 98.5% of all teams in the NFFC main events H2H was a complete farce - all of the hand-wringing over a close game, celebrating a last minute win, agony of a close loss ... absolutely and completely meaningless for 98.5% of everyone in the contest. That data supports exactly what I have been saying for two years, that H2H is no more than a facade to appease the masses.

Does that make me a strong H2H supporter? Not really, because I like to see winning flow to the strongest teams over the course of a season. But if we are going to have H2H, and I think that's a foregone conclusion, make it relevant.

Put the top two H2H teams into a league playoff. If someone ties them for best record, add a third as a wildcard. After the top 2 H2H teams are in, put in the top two points teams that didn't make it. If the third-highest point team didn't make it, they're in as a wildcard too. And finally, so we are not overly-rewarding those who made it only because of scheduling luck, give the higher scoring teams a carryover point advantage for the playoff. I've suggested 0.25 pts per regular season point over the lowest scoring playoff team. That feels about right - meaning that a team that out-scored an opponent by 100 during the regular season starts with a 25 pt advantage - not so much to overcome, but also not trivial.