What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

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Greg Ambrosius
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What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:31 am

Tom and I will be hosting a two-hour show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio on New Year's Eve from 5 to 7 pm ET and we'd love to take a look at the first two rounds of 2014 in the NFFC. It's going to be a crazy year again and we might as well whet the appetites of that audience with some potential names and positions for 2014.

C'mon, let's see your early lists and have some fun with this. The best Top 14 gets mentioned on the air. If you want to live dangerously, let's see your Top 25 for 2014. We'll use an entire segment of the show for this, so help us along.

Who's ready to take the dive into the first round? Thanks all.
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius

chriseibl
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Re: What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

Post by chriseibl » Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:38 pm

Thease are not so much my personal rankings but here's my early guess on how drafters will approach 2014...

1.) Jamaal Charles - With Andy Reid turning Charles into a PPR monster he now has a high floor to go with his high ceiling. Scary to think he didn't even have that many huge plays in 2013 until Week 15. I doubt many players look elsewhere with their first pick in 2014.
2.) LeSean McCoy - Similar pass catching, do-it-all ability as Charles, McCoy doesn't leave much to be desired. If he stays healthy, his workload and big plays ensure he'll be worth the pick.
3.) Adrian Peterson - Not the lock for #1 as he has been in the past but I doubt Peterson drops too much as he's yet to show much decline in his abilities from the guy who was a #1 pick year in and year out. People will continue to call Purple Jesus's name early in fantasy draft next year.
4.) Peyton Manning - Dominating 2013 performance shoots him up draft boards in 2014. Could drop a couple of spots if he loses Decker though which is something to keep an eye on.
5.) Matt Forte - Similar to McCoy and Charles but Forte drops a little as he's a little older. Forte came through as many expected he would in Trestman's offense in 2013 and unexpected got the vast majority of the goal-line carries. Those do it all backs are quite rare in fantasy.
6.) Calvin Johnson - This is probably higher than he actually goes in 2014 because he went around 6th in 2013 coming off of a slightly better, much healthier season. That being said, it's hard for me to pick any one player people would clearly rather have next year.
7.) Josh Gordon - Carried fantasy teams week in and week out in 2013. People have to be intrigued by the idea that a typical WR doesn't really get going unti lhis 3rd year meaning we may not have seen his ceiling, though that intrigue is somewhat inhibited by QB questions. Those QB questions didn't hurt him in 2013.
8.) Jimmy Graham - An easy way to win a position is taking Jimmy Graham and not worrying about TE. High floor, high upside.
9.) Giovani Bernard - It wouldn't surprise me if his draft stock soared even higher if word gets out that he'll have a full-time role in 2014. Big play ability puts his ceiling as high as anyone's.
10.) Eddie Lacy - Slotted below Bernard as he's less of a pass-catching threat, Lacy should benefit next year by playing most of his season with Mr. Rodgers.
11.) A.J. Green - A safe pick. Dalton is willing to spread it out when Green gets too much defensive attention but we all know who he'll target most.
12.) LeVeon Bell - Do it all back would be higher up if not for concerns about running behind a so-so line. A big play or two next pre-season would likely move him a couple spots in the eyes of drafters.
13.) Demaryius Thomas - Moves up a couple of spots if Decker ends up elsewhere. Hitting his peak with Peyton Manning makes him a safe bet for production.
14.) Marshawn Lynch - Mileage be damned, Lynch isn't that old yet and is still running like a beast on a good team with a great defense. Christine Michael/Robert Turbin are talented guys but there hasn't been any sign that Lynch's touches are going to be reduced any time soon.

And a 2nd round below.

15.) Zac Stacy - Should go high with people excited to see what he can do over a full season as the starter.
16.) Dez Bryant - A sure bet for red zone looks. Tony and Dez's back are both legitimate concerns.
17.) Antonio Brown - His 2013 season might suggest he should go higher but I think people want a guy who they know for sure will get red zone looks.
18.) DeMarco Murray - A productive, overall healthy season proved why he was drafted in the first round in 2012. Good for gamblers with short memories.
19.) Arian Foster - I think people will go back to Foster if he looks healthy in the pre-season. He should be primed for another heavy workload with Tate likely out of the picture and represents.
20.) Julio Jones - Wouldn't surprise me to see him shoot up the list with a big pre-season game.
21.) Doug Martin - Fairly high productivity for Mike James and Bobby Rainey makes me feel Martin could have gotten it together in the 2nd half of the season.
22.) Alshon Jeffery - People will take Jeffery a tad higher than Marshall, just as they did with Roddy/Julio in 2012.
23.) Brandon Marshall - Cutler not coming back would drop Marshall from the 2nd round but everyone expects Cutler back at this point.
24.) Reggie Bush - Despite a quality season and being an integral part of the passing game, could fall a little from last year now that they know how involved Joique Bell is.
25.) Drew Brees - At 6 points per passing td, some guys are going to want to be assured solid production in the playoffs from the position.
26.) Pierre Garcon - Coming off a big season and probably deserves to go higher but doesn't get as much hype as the big names ahead of him.
27.) DeSean Jackson - Also comes off a big season and people will expect more of the same with Foles behind center.
28.) Andre Ellington - If people can become convinced that he's getting all the touches, wouldn't surprise me to see Ellington take a huge leap forward given his current per touch productivity.

Just missed the cut -
Aaron Rodgers - Will occasionally be taken high based on the dropoff after him to the next QB.
Alfred Morris - Creeps into the 2nd round if there's talk of using him as a receiver.
Shane Vereen - The unpredictability of Belichick will always make people cautious.
Jordy Nelson - Not sure who will be most targed with Cobb coming back but Rodgers spreads it around more than Cutler.
Julius Thomas - Enters the 2nd round if Decker leaves
Last edited by chriseibl on Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:10 am, edited 2 times in total.

nails
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Re: What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

Post by nails » Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:40 pm

My list:

1. J. Charles
2. AP (could change if they don't upgrade at QB)
3. McCoy
4. Matt Forte (mr. safe).
5. Calvin Johnson.
6. A.J Green (some may consider gordon better which he may be but AJ is safer).
7. Dem Thomas
8. Josh Gordon
9. Dez bryant
10. Eddie Lacy (i have him and Bell same ranking).
10. Lev Bell
11. M. Lynch (again safe)
12. Zach Stacey (little bit of a risk)
13. B. Marshall (getting older)
14. A. Jeffrey (i could swap him with marshall)
15. Antonio Brown (PPR Machine)
16. G. Bernard (i think he will be main bell cow)
17. P. Garcon (PPR Machine and will only improve on TD's in 2014)
18. Julio Jones (could change depending on pre-season see how he looks)
19. Jordy Nelson (very sneaky WR come 2014 could slide on draft boards and could have monster 2014 campaign
20. Manning (i wouldn't draft a QB but you have to rank him 1st QB off the board.. some will put him in 1st round i can't do it.

If this year has confirmed one thing it's confirmed that WR's are king in these leagues. Note, i started out the primetime this year with AP, R. Bush and D. Murray. i finished most points in my league however come playoff time, my WR's fell off the board. Where in my auction leagues, i drafted WR's galore, and dominated in playoffs. WAY WAY too many RB's off the board in 2013 that stunk. I'm not taking ANY risk in 2014 in the 1st 2 rounds.. worse case i'll go WR WR and take stabs at RB's along the way. in 2013, if you did that and didn't get Julio Jones, and you were able to get wood head, or Stacey off waiver wire, or someone else, you probably did well.

i didn't put a whole lot of thought into this and i may change it up a bit I'm sure over next few days but i've been thinking about this for a few days now.. and no i won't put J. Graham or Gronk in here.. i just won't draft a QB or TE in 1st 4 rounds of any drafts NO MATTER WAT.

Mike Weber..
Bring it on .

David U Kennedy
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Re: What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

Post by David U Kennedy » Sun Dec 29, 2013 9:46 am

1. Jamaal Charles or Lesean McCoy I see theses 2 as interchangeable. Kelly's offense may get even better!!
2. Peyton Manning depends on what they do in offseason. How many teams did he carry this year? Safe safe safe
3. Adrian!!! just love the guy
4. Jimmy Graham. The master at TE. With Gronk no longer trustable I think Graham is a great start to a team.
5. Megatron a true difference maker and will be king till I see otherwise at WR.
6. Giovani Bernard this guy will be the big story in 2014.
7. Matt Forte good all round player. Cross your fingers for him to stay healthy.
8. AJ Green he is just a STUD
9. Ray Rice he will return to health and top form. probably be a major bargain in 2014
10. Doug Martin stud talent who will get his touches
11. Julio Jones great great player who will be best WR if he can stay on the field
12. Dez Bryant has all the tools but will his immaturity cost him.
13. Lacy now is the time to draft Eddie early in his career

BillyWaz
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Re: What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

Post by BillyWaz » Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:25 pm

This is what I think will happen (not necessarily what I would do)

ROUND ONE
1) RB Jamaal Charles- Only possible other choice IMO is McCoy. What more can you ask for?
2) RB LeSean McCoy- A great multi-dimensional player to build your team around.
3) QB Peyton Manning- Too much production to ignore....if Decker leaves, he maybe goes down a few spots, but I bet Decker stays.
4) RB Adrian Peterson- Tread on the tires? So what....these tires are made of steel!
5) RB Matt Forte- I think he is clearly ahead of next RB, and will be taken here more often than not.
6) WR Calvin Johnson- Still the king of WR's until dethroned, but footsteps are close.
7) WR Josh Gordon- If he gets any decent QB production...WOW.
8) WR AJ Green- Just a consistent stud.
9) RB Eddie Lacy- Wasn't great early on, but has really come on.
10) RB MarShawyn Lynch- Name recognition and the fact he is a RB gets him here.
11) TE Jimmy Graham- Such an advantage at the position, tough to argue.
12) WR DeMaryius Thomas- Only one ball to go around, but he is the guy.
13) RB LeVeon Bell- I think he deserves 1st round talk....bellcow, catches, goalline (plus his OL will be much healthier)
14) WR Antonio Brown- Hard to argue with the production. He scored 8 times + 1 on a punt.


ROUND TWO

15) RB DeMarco Murray- Only question is can he stay healthy?
16) RB Giovanni Bernard- He could rise 3 or 4 spots if BGE isn't back OR he looks awesome in preseason.
17) WR Brandon Marshall- If Cutler is back, it is clear that he is still who looks for most.
18) WR Julio Jones- As long as he is healthy in preseason, people won't be able to resist.
19) WR Dez Bryant- Explosive as ever, but it seems there are so many games he isn't a focus of the gameplan.
20) RB Reggie Bush- With a new coach who knows how to use him, he could easily find himself late first round.
21) WR Eric Decker- If he stays in Denver, I can see him here.
22) WR Alshon Jeffery- Such a talent...Cutler still prefers Marshall.
23) QB Drew Brees- Could easily see him in the 3rd, or at the end of the first. Solid.
24) RB Doug Martin- As long as new coach isn't preaching RBBC with James, then he has shown what he can do.
25) WR Jordy Nelson- In a prolific offense, and he is Rodgers guy.
26) RB Zac Stacy- Wanted to put him higher, but until the offense shows it can move ball through the air, he has a target on his chest.
27) RB CJ Spiller- I think getting him here is a lottery ticket, but there is a reason people were jumping on him as early as #4 this year.
28) WR Pierre Garcon- When a guy catches over 100 passes and is focal point of offense, you gotta respect that.

JETS SB
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Re: What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

Post by JETS SB » Mon Dec 30, 2013 1:22 pm

1. Charles
2. McCoy
3. Forte
4. Calvin Johnson
5. AP
6. D Thomas
7. E Lacy (He will be #1 in 2015)
8. Josh Gordon
9. Dez bryant
10. AJ Green
11. L Bell
12. M. Lynch
13. B Marshall
14. P Manning (He wont last this long, but I would wait)
15. A. Jeffrey
16. Antonio Brown
17. J Jones
18. D Murray
19. G Bernard
20. Jordy Nelson
21. D Brees
22. J Graham
23. P Garcon
24. A Rodgers
25. E Decker
26. Z Stacy
27. D Jackson
28. R Cobb

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Tom Kessenich
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Re: What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

Post by Tom Kessenich » Mon Dec 30, 2013 1:32 pm

I have the first 7 spots on my board locked up:

1. Charles
2. McCoy
3. Forte
4. Peterson
5. Megatron
6. Lacy
7. Graham

After that it's gonna be wide open. I do think next year will be a good year to go WR-WR (or Graham-WR) to start and then try to hit on value RBs in Rounds 3-5. I think there will be a lot of potential options in those rounds to choose from.
Tom Kessenich
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Twitter - @TomKessenich

Greg Ambrosius
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Re: What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Mon Dec 30, 2013 1:38 pm

I was listening to John Hanson on SiriusXM Radio today and he said he had some concerns over Megatron's latest knee surgery. He said he wasn't even sure he'd have him as the No. 1 receiver going into 2014 and would instead put A.J. Green there, saying that Megatron will be 29 next year and is starting to pile up the lower leg injuries. I'd have to think that Johnson will be No. 1 on most peoples' boards next year when it comes to WRs, but Hanson's points are interesting.

Any concerns from anyone here?
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
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Tom Kessenich
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Re: What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

Post by Tom Kessenich » Mon Dec 30, 2013 1:43 pm

Too early for me to be concerned about Calvin. He's still so talented and as long as he is healthy heading into camp next season I can't see putting another WR ahead of him. As far as who could succeed him as fantasy's No. 1 WR Green is definitely a worthy choice but hardly a slam dunk in my eyes. If Decker leaves Denver I could see Demaryius Thomas ascending to No. 1 overall. Hell, he could get there with Decker still in the fold. He's that good and obviously so is Peyton. A healthy Julio Jones has that upside and may have done it this season. If the Browns get a real NFL quarterback, Josh Gordon absolutely could be No. 1. Dez Bryant has that talent and potential as well.

Lots of elite options at WR right now. This may be the golden age of wide receiver talent in the NFL. Definitely helps that the game is governed to be a pass-friendly league but the WR talent is also really impressive.
Tom Kessenich
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bald is beautiful
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Re: What Will The First Round Look Like In 2014?

Post by bald is beautiful » Mon Dec 30, 2013 2:50 pm

Greg Ambrosius wrote:I was listening to John Hanson on SiriusXM Radio today and he said he had some concerns over Megatron's latest knee surgery. He said he wasn't even sure he'd have him as the No. 1 receiver going into 2014 and would instead put A.J. Green there, saying that Megatron will be 29 next year and is starting to pile up the lower leg injuries. I'd have to think that Johnson will be No. 1 on most peoples' boards next year when it comes to WRs, but Hanson's points are interesting.

Any concerns from anyone here?
I've been saying for the past 10 weeks he was heading for knee surgery in the offseason. All that missed practice time, and two missed games, told me he probably had a meniscus issue but was playing through it and toughing it out. I'd need to know more about what this knee surgery will be for before I react to where he should be drafted. If it is a routine cleanup procedure, then I won't be too concerned. He still has at least 4 great seasons left in him.

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