It's Been A Tough Start For Top 4 Draft Spots

[Greg Ambrosius]

I don't like to look at draft spot strength until we're done with all of the byes because obviously those play a huge role in the final point tallies. But with only six more teams left to go on byes, I thought it would be interesting to look at the Top 20 teams in our three national contests to see if there is a noticeable trend. And there is: The top four spots where the Running Backs were being taken are among the weakest draft spots in 2014. That certainly isn't a shock, but the numbers are revealing.

In the NFFC Classic, only two of the Top 20 teams come from the Top 4 spots and three of those spots (1, 3, 4) didn't have any teams in the Top 20. Heck, there are three teams from No. 14 in the Top 20 alone. Here's a look at the Top 20 teams through Week 10 in the NFFC Classic:

NFFC Classic
Draft Spot - # of Teams In Top 20
No. 1 - 0 teams
No. 2 - 2 teams
No. 3 - 0 teams
No. 4 - 0 teams
No. 5 - 1 team
No. 6 - 1 team
No. 7 - 2 teams
No. 8 - 3 teams
No. 9 - 2 teams
No. 10 - 2 teams
No. 11 - 2 teams
No. 12 - 1 team
No. 13 - 1 team
No. 14 - 3 teams

Nos. 1-4: 2 teams
Nos. 5-8: 7 teams
Nos. 9-11: 6 teams
Nos. 12-14: 5 teams

Highest spot for:
No. 1 = 41st overall
No. 3 = 29th overall
No. 4 = 32nd overall

In the NFFC Primetime, only three of the Top 20 teams came from the Top 4 spots. All spots were represented in the Top 20 except No. 3. Here's a look at the Top 20 teams in the NFFC Primetime and where they drafted from:

NFFC Primetime Top 20 Teams Through Week 10:
Draft Spot - # of Teams In Top 20
No. 1 - 1 team
No. 2 - 1 team
No. 3 - 0 teams
No. 4 - 1 team
No. 5 - 2 teams
No. 6 - 1 team
No. 7 - 4 teams
No. 8 - 3 teams
No. 9 - 2 teams
No. 10 - 3 teams
No. 11 - 1 team
No. 12 - 1 team

Nos. 1-3: 2 teams
Nos. 4-6: 4 teams
Nos. 7-9: 9 teams
Nos. 10-12: 5 teams

The highest spot for No. 3 is 50th overall.

In the Online Championship, nobody from the Top 3 spots are in the Top 20. This one is very interesting:

Rotowire Fantasy Football Online Championship
Draft Spot - # of Teams In Top 20
No. 1 - 0 teams
No. 2 - 0 teams
No. 3 - 0 teams
No. 4 - 2 teams
No. 5 - 3 teams
No. 6 - 0 teams
No. 7 - 1 team
No. 8 - 2 teams
No. 9 - 4 teams
No. 10 - 6 teams
No. 11 - 1 team
No. 12 - 1 team

Nos. 1-3: 0 teams
Nos. 4-6: 5 teams
Nos. 7-9: 7 teams
Nos. 10-12: 8 teams

Highest finish for these draft spots are:
No. 1 = 90th overall
No. 2 = 54th overall
No. 3 = 35th overall
No. 6 = 44th overall

Thoughts?

[KenGill]

Interesting.
Not hard to figure out why either.

McCoy = BUST. 6 bad games out of 9 including a 19 yard gem last night.

Charles = 533 yards & 6 TD's. Not bad, but more was needed. His owner including myself likely dug an 0-2 hole to open season

Peterson - HUGE BUST and should be in jail.

[kjduke]

Peterson - HUGE BUST and should be in jail.

And witches should be burned at the stake, and commie sympathizers should be expelled.

Social media is turning people into one big, mad, ridiculous and dangerous lynch mob.

People that violate others' rights belong in jail, not those whose views, upbringing and frame of reference differ from your own. The US jails more people than any country in the world; it's destroying our freedom, economy and the legacy of what the US is (was). I have listened to as many self-righteous Boomer Esiason's on this topic as I can take.

Adrian Peterson needs some education, not jail. You want to throw someone in Jail ... how about administrators that push athletes through college without having them learn anything?

[got heeem]

really ! you said that people should be in jail for violating peoples rights .doesn't his child have rights ? no one needs to be whipped like he whipped his child .you must have no kids.to think the way you think .

[kjduke]

really ! you said that people should be in jail for violating peoples rights .doesn't his child have rights ? no one needs to be whipped like he whipped his child .you must have no kids.to think the way you think .

I don't believe in coddling, never have. Didn't want to be coddled, wouldn't do it, don't like it.

AP is behaving like his parents did. He could use an education ... if he had a better perspective on social issues, psychology, history, he'd probably be a better parent. He gave his kid a welt. The legal system called it a misdemeanor. That sounds appropriate and hopefully he learns something.

What's worse for society - coddled kids that are incapable of self-reliance and feel entitled, or kids that are disciplined and taught responsibility and consequences for their actions?

[chriseibl]

really ! you said that people should be in jail for violating peoples rights .doesn't his child have rights ? no one needs to be whipped like he whipped his child .you must have no kids.to think the way you think .

I feel that some behaviors, like what Peterson did, are influenced tremendously by how they were raised. My guess is Peterson isn't a terrible person but that he grew up in an environment where what he did is normal. Same with Mike Vick and dogs. These acts warrant education to me more than punishment.

People are more shaped by how they were raised than anything. 90+% of people believe in whatever religion their parents believe in. Baby slave owners and baby nazis grew up to be adult slave owners and adult nazis largely because of their parents. Adrian Peterson is likely no more or less a child abuser than his father was.

Wait, we're talking about draft spots?

[wiljiro]

It's not that complicated, really.

If you are going to be one of the top 4 picks you ABSOLUTELY have to hit on that first round - Specifically because of the reverse third - If you fail on Round 1 - Unless you were lucky enough to have Gronk / Thomas fall to you in the third, you are done -

People talk about luck in this "game"? This is where it really comes into play - There is no way to predict what McCoy is going through, a Calvin injury, or that AP would go "Richard Pryor" on his son -

W

[bald is beautiful]

Peterson - HUGE BUST and should be in jail.

And witches should be burned at the stake, and commie sympathizers should be expelled.

Social media is turning people into one big, mad, ridiculous and dangerous lynch mob.

People that violate others' rights belong in jail, not those whose views, upbringing and frame of reference differ from your own. The US jails more people than any country in the world; it's destroying our freedom, economy and the legacy of what the US is (was). I have listened to as many self-righteous Boomer Esiason's on this topic as I can take.

Adrian Peterson needs some education, not jail. You want to throw someone in Jail ... how about administrators that push athletes through college without having them learn anything?

I agree 100%.

[Coltsfan]

If you were top 4 and didn't take Forte then it has probably been a tough road. I am surprised that there aren't more "Forte" teams in the top spots. You could have easily paired him with Foster or Cobb or maybe even Murray. One team of mine started Forte/Murray/Ellington and it's done very well. But there were a lot of land mines early on.

My guess is that Charles will have a decent finish and some of the teams who started Charles will emerge. I'm not so sure about McCoy teams. Also, there might be some Calvin teams in the top 4 who are getting killed by his injury.


Wayne

[Frozen Tundra]

I don't believe in drafting RBs in the first round. Yes it is almost certain that one RBs will lead the league in points (non QBs) any given year. The problem is nobody knows which RB will do that. Trying to guess that is a very risky exercise. Failing to pick the right one and having a high first round pick is definitely a recipe for a disastrous season.