Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

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Tom Kessenich
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Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

Post by Tom Kessenich » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:24 pm

With Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown is a Top 2 fantasy WR and potentially the No. 1 player in fantasy (although Julio Jones is gonna have something to say about that). Without Big Ben Brown is ... well ... what is he going to be?

A few years ago when Aaron Rodgers got hurt, Jordy Nelson went from being a WR1 lock to a shaky WR3. The decline in QB play was so severe it impacted Nelson's fantasy value significantly. Will the same happen to Brown now that Pittsburgh is turning to Michael Vick?

I've yet to see a single analysis of the situation that doesn't paint this as the most dire situation ever. Absolutely nobody I've seen thinks things will go well for Brown with Vick at QB. What does everyone here think? We know Brown is unlikely to be WR1 in fantasy without Ben but can this work out OK? Or is Antonio Brown's fantasy value about to take an enormous hit?

Post your thoughts here and we could talk about them on our Sirius show Wednesday night.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
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TR
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Re: Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

Post by TR » Tue Sep 29, 2015 3:03 pm

Tom Kessenich wrote:With Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown is a Top 2 fantasy WR and potentially the No. 1 player in fantasy (although Julio Jones is gonna have something to say about that). Without Big Ben Brown is ... well ... what is he going to be?

A few years ago when Aaron Rodgers got hurt, Jordy Nelson went from being a WR1 lock to a shaky WR3. The decline in QB play was so severe it impacted Nelson's fantasy value significantly. Will the same happen to Brown now that Pittsburgh is turning to Michael Vick?

I've yet to see a single analysis of the situation that doesn't paint this as the most dire situation ever. Absolutely nobody I've seen thinks things will go well for Brown with Vick at QB. What does everyone here think? We know Brown is unlikely to be WR1 in fantasy without Ben but can this work out OK? Or is Antonio Brown's fantasy value about to take an enormous hit?

Post your thoughts here and we could talk about them on our Sirius show Wednesday night.
I would expect the Steelers to go more run heavy now that they have Leveon Bell back and DeAngelo Williams has proven to still have juice in his legs. But who really knows with Todd Haley...maybe he won't alter the gameplan that much and still let VIck fling it behind that great oline..can't see Vick running around like he used to with his high risk for injury..he can still get the ball downfield so deep threats like Martavis Bryant should benefit.

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Re: Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

Post by renman » Tue Sep 29, 2015 3:14 pm

I think it is a catastrophic loss that negatively impacts Brown owners. I think many underestimate how good Big Ben is and how much he has carried this team and offense for years. I am sure Haley will try to run some bubble screens with Vick to get the ball in Browns hands. Guess what? The defense likely will know this too and will defend it. Many of the plays Brown makes downfield are a result of great simultaneous reads between Ben and Brown. I do not think Vick (nor should he be expected to) will be able to be in sync with Brown in that way for plays down the field and I do not think Vick will be able to fit the ball into tight windows to Brown like Ben did. I could see Vick make a big play downfield after faking a bubble screen to Brown and then turning to throw downfield to Wheaton, Coates, Hey Bey, or Bryant for a big play.

I would not be surprised to see Browns insane streak of 5 receptions and 50 years end during the time Ben is out.

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Don Draper
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Re: Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

Post by Don Draper » Tue Sep 29, 2015 4:53 pm

Vick is a piece of shit. A.brown owners be prepared for a lot of sub 10 point games

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Re: Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

Post by boutrous11 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:17 pm

Different places on the interwebs (semi-big reddit thread, cbs rankings this week, fantasy sharks rankings this week to name a few) have Brown still having elite #s w/o Big Ben. I'm at a loss as to why people think this. I'm w/ all of you, I think his stats are going to drop considerably. Maybe still top 15-20 w/ Ben out, that's about it...

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Don Draper
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Re: Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

Post by Don Draper » Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:32 pm

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Re: Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

Post by Don Draper » Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:34 pm

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CoMoHusker
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Re: Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

Post by CoMoHusker » Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:32 am

In Vick's defense, Brown did drop a TD that he should have caught (by his standards). Vick didn't lose this game. Scobee and some questionable calls by Tomlin (Scobee forced his hand) loomed large. Vick did make a bad throw on 4th down that most likely ices the game but he should have never been in that spot. My guess is that Scobee will be out of a job this week.
Go Big Red!

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Re: Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

Post by renman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:02 am

Looks like my prediction that Browns 5 for 50 streak would end during the time Vick was in didn't take long. Having said that, I was stunned by some of the decisions that Tomlin made. Then to compound really odd decisions some of the play calling blew my mind on top of it. Weird night and game...

If anyone ever questions how good Big Ben is all you have to do is look at that game. He is a very underrated QB in the NFL and has been for a long time. He absolutely carries this organization.

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Tom Kessenich
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Re: Antonio Brown: What Will Happen To Him With Vick At QB?

Post by Tom Kessenich » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:25 am

This is a tough one IMO. The numbers themselves look bad and would indicate everyone subscribing to The Sky Is Falling Narrative were on the money. However, looking at the game itself you can see how close Brown was to having a good game. Had he caught the 36-yard TD pass right in his hands no Brown owner would be complaining today. I realize you don't get those points and ultimately it doesn't matter how close he may have been to something other than what the final results were but I think it speaks to the possibility that this situation isn't a slam dunk lock for Brown's value to take an enormous hit each week.

I realize that may sound like a Brown owner grasping at anything that could make this situation better than it looks and I won't deny that's a part of it. But i'm also trying to look at the situation within context rather than Vick stinks so Brown's done even if the "Vick stinks" part isn't far off.

That being said, as a Brown owner I hope Ben gets back real real REAL soon.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
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