So one industry draft is in the books. What did we learn from that one along with all of the early NFFC drafts?
Let's count the ways to the "10 Things We Learned From Pre-July Drafts" with a look at the FSTA draft board here:
https://rtsports.com/siriusxm-fsta
1. The Top 8 Are Set: It sure looks like the top of the First Round is set in stone. The first 3 picks appear to be David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott in one form or another, followed by the WRs of Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans. LeSean McCoy is settling in at pick 8, but after that it's more wide open. Does the draft start at Pick 9? It certainly looks that way.
2. Love Affair For Jay Ajayi: Ajayi has received some early season love this year as his ADP in the NFFC is currently at 15. Rotowire's Chris Liss jumped on him with the 9th pick in the FSTA draft and several other industry writers are also very high on him. He did have three of the four 200-yard rushing games last year and he had four games over 20 points, but he also had four games between 10-15 points and seven games under 10 points. That's not the type of steady production you want from your first pick, or is it?
3. Long Last Love For Gronk: Rob Gronkowski has an ADP of 25 in the NFFC, which means he's just outside of the second round, but in the FSTA draft he went 21st and Travis Kelce went 25th. Kelce's ADP in the NFFC is 33. Gronk missed 8 games to injury last year, but he had back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons before that with a total of 23 TD receptions. Kelce had his first 1,000 yard season in 2016, but finished with only four TDs. Are both worthy of picks in the Top 35?
4. No love for Cooks at 27? Tom and I took Brandin Cooks at pick 27 and DeAndre Hopkins at 30. Their ADPs at the time were 20 and 21, yet we received criticism from the likes of John Hansen on the Cooks pick. Why? Because he and others felt that there wouldn't be enough targets for Cooks to make an impact. That seems absurd with Brady, who doesn't care about past production and will get the ball to whomever is open. The last time Brady had a deep threat like Cooks he threw 50 TD passes, many of them to Randy Moss. As for Hopkins, he will have to deal with bad QB play again this year, but can it be worse than last year? We don't think so, but others disagree.
5. Lotsa Love For Rookie RBs: We are seeing three rookie Running Backs going in the first three rounds in a lot of drafts this year. They include Leonard Fournette (ADP of 22), Christian McCaffrey (30) and Joe Mixon (38). In the FSTA draft they went 23rd (Fournette), 31st (Mixon) and 37th (McCaffrey). There isn't a rookie WR going inside the Top 100, so it's these three guys or bust for the rookies this year it seems. Will they return this value? What do you think?
6. Return Of The Running Backs: This year has an old school feel to it with three Running Backs leading off the draft and 7 of the first 14 picks being RBs. The first three rounds consist of 17 RBs and 22 WRs, something we haven't seen for years. Are people chasing last year's great Running Back stats or are RBs as valuable as top WRs these days? Time will tell if this year is a repeat of last year.
7. Wait on QBs: This point hasn't changed in years, but even the Top QBs aren't getting love in the early rounds. Aaron Rodgers is the top QB as he's going 27th in the NFFC, with Tom Brady going 31st. Drew Brees follows at 46th, but remember most of these are Draft Champions results, where QBs likely will be going earlier than in other league formats. In the FSTA, Rodgers went 52nd and Brady went 59th and this was a 14-team league. Three other QBs went in the 6th round, four QBs went in the 7th round, three QBs went in the 8th round and three more QBs went in the 9th round.
8. Top Heavy Picks in Straight Serpentine Drafts: It feels like the Top 3 teams have an advantage in a straight serpentine draft, especially in a 14-team format like we saw in the FSTA draft. Getting a Top RB early allows you to still get 2 solid WRs in Rounds 2 and 3, while still having great options after that. It just feels like there is a distinct advantage at the top without Third Round Reversal.
9. Sleeper WR Picks: Tyreek Hill is the fastest rising wideout now that he's the No. 1 option in Kansas City. His ADP in the NFFC is 44 and he went 45th in the FSTA draft. Martavis Bryant is also on the rise now that he's back with the Steelers as his ADP is 56 and we took him 55th in the FSTA draft. I also like Willie Snead at 60 as he will have a much more prominent role under Drew Brees. One other interesting pick: Is Randall Cobb really going 102nd? Okay, I get it, I understand why, but geez, seems like value to me.
10. Sleeper RB Picks: Running Backs on the rise include Ameer Abdullah (NFFC ADP of 69, 64th pick in FSTA), Mike Gillislee (74 & 72), and Tevin Coleman (64 and 58). Maybe the most interesting duo is in New Orleans where Mark Ingram went 63rd in the FSTA draft and Adrian Peterson went 84th. Are they both going to excel or are drafters gambling that one will emerge ahead of the other?
10 Lessons Learned. Let's see if things change during the next 2+ months of live drafts.
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
We'll take all the advice we can get. Thanks all.
Are you kidding me. He finished 2016 as the WR 39 and that was with a rookie QB and no WR1 in front of him. He really wasn't bad. His TD's dropped from 8 in 2014 and 8 in 2015 to 3 last year. If he gets 8 last year he scores 201 pts. That's good for WR 19.