Q&A With Greg & Tom After Last Week's Auction

[Greg Ambrosius]

Next week Tom and I put our reputations on the line against 10 other NFFC members in the annual Tom & Greg Auction League. These haven't gone well for us in the past as both of us are getting our asses handed to us again in baseball and neither of us have ever won one of these. I did finish with the best record in this football league last year and made the Championship Round, but as you can see there's no ring on my finger for that.

But these are always fun and this will actually be the first auction league of the season. We are all making up the values as we go along, so let's see who has the deeper pocketbooks for this year's top picks. We'll post the top values and our team results after Tuesday's auction.

With the auction in mind -- and with our office surrounded by 100,000 car freaks for the annual Iola Old Car Show (see here: http://iolaoldcarshow.com) -- I thought I'd set aside some time today and this weekend to be available for any questions you may have. Tom and I want to do more of these throughout the off-season so that everyone is on the same page with what is going on here. We have a lot of changes coming in the next year, but we think this season will be very similar to past seasons. The big transformation happens after this football season.

Anyway, use this thread to ask any industry questions, any company questions, any football questions and we'll jump in to answer them. I want to start a new thread each week and even set aside a day and time that we can all get together for a chat. Maybe each Monday makes sense. We also are looking into doing something more regularly like expanding our High Stakes Fantasy Advantage into a more regular podcast so that again we can reach out to more people on a regular basis. And we may have something else brewing for the upcoming season that we can announce later in the off-season.

Should be a fun, fun season, so let's get cracking. The auction is just a few days away and I have to learn how to use that +$1 button!! And then I have to remember to bid Tom up on every Packer wideout. I know where he's going this year with his bids!!

Thanks and send in your thoughts and questions. We'll respond.

[Greg Ambrosius]

On Wednesday night on our High Stakes Fantasy Advantage show on SiriusXM, we had Evan Silva of Rotowire.com on the show. As I stated on another thread, Evan has Ezekiel Elliott ranked 7th in his pre-season rankings because of the threat of a suspension and the loss of two starting offensive linemen. He also surprised us by having Christian McCaffrey ranked 47th overall, ranked well below fellow rookie RBs Leonard Fournette (24th) and Joe Mixon (31st).

Evan emphatically stated that Mixon has the highest ceiling among all rookies, while McCaffrey is the biggest risk among rookies. He believes Fournette will be steady and productive, but he likes Mixon's upside better.

He also had concern about the shoulder injuries to Andrew Luck and Cam Newton. He said he'd take those guys in the 10th or 11th round, but not before. We suggested that if that's the case he won't be getting those guys and he agreed.

All interesting points. Thoughts on any of this?

[Greg Ambrosius]

SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio also polled its hosts to formulate a Top 100 that was unveiled over the Fourth of July holiday. Here's a look at that Top 100:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KwS ... vQInY/edit

The Top 20 doesn't look all that different from the NFFC's. Maybe Jay Ajayi at 11 is a little higher, but over the last week in the NFFC his ADP has been 12.40. Gronk is a little higher at 19 than in the NFFC (25) and Aaron Rodgers is at 26 which is a little earlier than where he's going in the NFFC (29).

Two interesting differences involve Brandin Cooks and DeAndre Hopkins. You don't see Hopkins going ahead of Cooks much in the NFFC, but on this list Cooks is at 27 and Hopkins is 21. That doesn't seem right. Last week in the FSTA Draft with many of these same guys, Tom and I got Cooks at 27 and Hopkins at 30.

The NFFC likes Christian McCaffrey more than our colleagues at Sirius. He's 37th on this list compared to going 31st in the NFFC. Joe Mixon is also going later at 46 compared to 38 in the NFFC.

Marshawn Lynch ranked much earlier on this list than the NFFC. He's 33rd on this list and in the NFFC he's carrying an ADP of 47. That's more than a round difference. Hyde is at 38 here and his ADP was 51 last week in the NFFC.

Same with Adrian Peterson. He's 70th on this list but is going 16 picks later in the NFFC. Mark Ingram is 54 on this list and 63rd in the NFFC. Can two Saints Running Backs really be worthy of Top 70 picks? You wouldn't think so with Drew Brees at QB and neither big pass catching backs, but let's see what happens.

Just a little more to chew on as you prepare for upcoming drafts. Enjoy.

[76erfan]

get your popcorn ready for Tuesday! no one has any nffc auction $ values yet so most people will probably wing it.....that may be to your advantage

over/under packers players on team ambrosius= 2.5?

assuming the auction will get a nice segment on the Wednesday show?

[Greg Ambrosius]

get your popcorn ready for Tuesday! no one has any nffc auction $ values yet so most people will probably wing it.....that may be to your advantage

over/under packers players on team ambrosius= 2.5?

assuming the auction will get a nice segment on the Wednesday show?

Take the under with me. Bet the over on Tom!!

Yes, during the All-Star break we'll have plenty of time to talk about football and will have a couple of owners on the show with us to talk about the auction. That should be fun.

Winging it should be fun. Let's see what the top RBs go for right away and I think we'll all know what to expect after that. Can't wait.

[Route C]

Since he's been in the discussion as of late I'll be interested at the gap between Zeke vs. DJ and Bell.
I'm not sure it will be a lot. It only takes 2 to want him and anything can happen.

Question for Greg and Tom:

How do you feel about D.Moncrief this year. I'm obviously close to this since I live in Indy but I'm still having trouble being confident in him. He's a tremendous talent who can't stay healthy and under achieves when he is. Assuming Luck is healthy do you think he pays off those who draft him this season?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Since he's been in the discussion as of late I'll be interested at the gap between Zeke vs. DJ and Bell.
I'm not sure it will be a lot. It only takes 2 to want him and anything can happen.

Question for Greg and Tom:

How do you feel about D.Moncrief this year. I'm obviously close to this since I live in Indy but I'm still having trouble being confident in him. He's a tremendous talent who can't stay healthy and under achieves when he is. Assuming Luck is healthy do you think he pays off those who draft him this season?

We talked about Moncrief on the air on Wednesday night right after we praised your Cutline draft!! You should have listened!! We both love Moncrief this year as long as HE can stay healthy. He's a big target in the Red Zone for Luck and last year I believe he was targeted 7 times inside the 10-yard-line and he caught 6 of his 7 TD passes there. Plus he's also playing for a new contract and reports are that he's highly motivated this year to be in great shape, stay on the field and cash in at season's end. There's a lot to like here.

He's definitely an upside pick this year who we both like a lot. I think it will be a spirited bidding process for him on Tuesday night.

[jerrye25]

Do you guys go into an auction with a specific strategy in mind...something like studs and duds, balanced, look for as much value. Do you make a budget and adjust as you go?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Do you guys go into an auction with a specific strategy in mind...something like studs and duds, balanced, look for as much value. Do you make a budget and adjust as you go?

Absolutely. I know certain players I want to target and what I want to pay for them. I also have other players in those areas that I'd be willing to pay for if the price is right. I always stray off the plan if I see some guys going too cheaply, but I have a list in front of me now of the players I'm hoping to get within my $200 budget.

Last year the top players went for $42-$43, but Todd Whitestone predicted on our show on Wednesday night that he thinks the top 2 RBs will go for $50 or more. If that happens, it could provide some bargains later or it could raise the price of the top WRs above $42 this year. Should be fun to see those top guys come out early to gauge the bidding interest.

Auctions are a blast. We'll have more of these online pretty soon as Andy Saxton does a great job with them. Look for more details soon.

[TheReckoner]

Do you guys go into an auction with a specific strategy in mind...something like studs and duds, balanced, look for as much value. Do you make a budget and adjust as you go?

Absolutely. I know certain players I want to target and what I want to pay for them. I also have other players in those areas that I'd be willing to pay for if the price is right. I always stray off the plan if I see some guys going too cheaply, but I have a list in front of me now of the players I'm hoping to get within my $200 budget.

Last year the top players went for $42-$43, but Todd Whitestone predicted on our show on Wednesday night that he thinks the top 2 RBs will go for $50 or more. If that happens, it could provide some bargains later or it could raise the price of the top WRs above $42 this year. Should be fun to see those top guys come out early to gauge the bidding interest.

Auctions are a blast. We'll have more of these online pretty soon as Andy Saxton does a great job with them. Look for more details soon.

I'll go a little further. Johnson and Bell over 60