NFFC Message Boards

We're happy to welcome Rick Hawes to the NFFC boards for a live chat today at 2 p.m. EST. Rick is the man responsible for our Fanball football projections. He's also a fun guy to hang out with on his birthday. Bring your questions today for Rick and let's have some fun on the boards.

Rick, the obvious question today is how have you changed the rankings for the Vikings' skill position players if Favre doesn't return in 2010? Let's see your updated projections and reasoning for:

Tavaris Jackson
Adrian Peterson
Sidney Rice
Bernard Berrian
Visanthe Shiancoe
Ryan Longwell

Thanks man.

Okay Rick, I'm going through the QB rankings in our last Fanball issue. A few quick questions:

** You have Jay Cutler for 27 TDs, 3,951 yards and only 18 INTs. Do you really believe he will be more efficient and less wild under Mike Martz?

** You have Kevin Kolb for 3,722 yards and 23 TDs as the 12th rated QB. Do you believe in him this year?

** You have Chad Henne for 3,632 yards and 22 TDs. Could he be a QB1 in 14-team fantasy leagues?

** You have Matt Schaub for fewer yards and passing TDs in 2010 (4,102 and 26). Why do you feel he will regress slightly when others are projecting even bigger numbers?

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Rick, the obvious question today is how have you changed the rankings for the Vikings' skill position players if Favre doesn't return in 2010? Let's see your updated projections and reasoning for:

Tavaris Jackson
Adrian Peterson
Sidney Rice
Bernard Berrian
Visanthe Shiancoe
Ryan Longwell

Thanks man. Given that we didn't hear the "retirement" word straight out of Favre's mouth yesterday, we decided not to alter the Vikings' player projections for now, but I did write a special Training Camp Tidbits piece (yesterday) based on the possible ramifications of such an event on the skill position guys:

--- Per several NFL sources, Brett Favre has decided to retire for a third time and began informing his teammates of his decision, according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. On the flip side, Vikings head coach Brad Childress said during a press conference this morning that he has to hear it from the horse's mouth, and he hasn't heard anything from Favre in the past 24 hours.

"It's fluid," Childress said of Favre's status with the team. "We text back and forth all the time. I'm not aware of that. Someone told me that coming off the field. ... I'm not aware of any of those reports. I'm not a big hearsay person. I'm a 'horse-say' person. I've got to hear it from the horse's mouth."

Bottom Line: There are rumors swirling that Favre feels he is unable to withstand the rigors of another NFL season due to his injured left ankle, which is not responding well to recent surgery and rehabilitation. Given that Favre has retired and unretired several times over the past three seasons, we are skeptical of the report, especially since we haven't heard anything definitive from the 19-year veteran.

That said, it's a good idea to re-evaluate the other Viking's commodities should Favre decide to retire, so let's take a look at the skill position players on the roster:

- Tarvaris Jackson: The five-year veteran would likely inherit the starting role, and he obviously represents a significant downgrade at a premium position. In 2006, the Jackson State product came into the league raw and has 19 career starts under his belt. During his career, he has completed 58.7 percent of his pass attempts with 21 touchdowns against 18 interceptions good for a 77.9 QB Rating. He does add an athletic dimension as a runner, but at the end of the day, make no mistake that Jackson is a downgrade.

- Adrian Peterson: With Favre out of the picture, the Vikings would likely lean more on the running game, which keeps All Day's fantasy stock intact. Keep in mind, the year before Favre's arrival, Peterson compiled 363 carries for 1,760 yards and 10 touchdowns. Purple Jesus has also improved his reception digits in each of the last two seasons, so he's a force to be reckoned with in PPR formats, as well.

- Toby Gerhart: We expect the rookie to win the No. 2 job, and his stock could get a bump with this news, as Peterson can't handle all the backfield duties by himself and we expect the Vikings would pass less. In 2008 and 2009, Chester Taylor (now with the Bears), compiled 195 carries for 737 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, as well as 99 receptions for 788 yards and three touchdowns through the air. The absence of Favre could upgrade Gerhart into a possible flex option, and he remains a very solid handcuff to Peterson.

- Sidney Rice: The South Carolina product exploded last year with Favre at the helm, posting career numbers across the board. His 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns represented the best digits of his three-year career by far. Earlier in the offseason, we had Rice pegged as a No. 1 fantasy receiver, however, he has been moved down in our projections due to an ongoing hip injury, which two doctors reportedly advised him needed surgery. Throw in the possible retirement of Favre, and Rice drops to a mid-range to lower-echelon No.2 fantasy wideout.

- Percy Harvin: The precocious rookie notched 60 receptions for 790 yards and six touchdowns in 2009, finishing the year as a No. 2 fantasy receiver. Remove Favre from the picture, and Harvin becomes a lower-echelon No. 3 fantasy receiver and could even drop into bench depth status. One thing he does have in his favor: Harvin is capable of making things happen after the catch, and can take the rock to the house every time he touches it.

- Bernard Berrian: Over the last four seasons, Berrian has compiled 22 touchdown receptions, and in 2008 with Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson sharing the quarterback duties, he posted 48 receptions for 964 yards and seven scores. However, with Harvin in the fold there are more mouths to feed and we view Berrian as nothing more than deep bench depth or waiver wire fodder, depending on the size of the rosters in your league.

- Visanthe Shiancoe: Of all the pass catchers on the roster, the tight end position is probably the least effected by the news, as Shiancoe will be a reliable check-down target for the youthful Jackson. If you look at Shaincoe's digits with and without Favre, there wasn't much difference other than in the touchdown column. In 2008, the Morgan State product compiled seven touchdown receptions sans Favre. In 2009, Shiancoe notched a career-high 11 scores with Favre. In other words, don't expect a repeat of Shiancoe's gaudy touchdown numbers in 2010, but we doubt he will totally fall off the face of the earth either.

Like I said earlier, we are skeptical that Favre will actually follow through and retire based solely on his past flip-flopping history, and due to the fact that coach Childress claims he hasn't heard anything yet. As a result, here at Fanball we have decided to keep Favre on our depth charts and projections until we hear the words come directly out of his mouth. Even then, given his past history, we'd probably remain skeptical. At the end of the day, however, each manager currently engaged in a fantasy draft will have to utilize their own judgement when selecting Vikings' skill position players. Good luck!

[ August 04, 2010, 10:10 AM: Message edited by: Rick Hawes ]

Rick, any relation to Spencer?

Originally posted by King of Queens:
Rick, any relation to Spencer? I wish, maybe he'd loan me some $$$$$$.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Okay Rick, I'm going through the QB rankings in our last Fanball issue. A few quick questions:

** You have Jay Cutler for 27 TDs, 3,951 yards and only 18 INTs. Do you really believe he will be more efficient and less wild under Mike Martz?

** You have Kevin Kolb for 3,722 yards and 23 TDs as the 12th rated QB. Do you believe in him this year?

** You have Chad Henne for 3,632 yards and 22 TDs. Could he be a QB1 in 14-team fantasy leagues?

** You have Matt Schaub for fewer yards and passing TDs in 2010 (4,102 and 26). Why do you feel he will regress slightly when others are projecting even bigger numbers? 1. I will admit I like Cutler this year. In Mike Martz' last three coaching stops, he has created a top-10 passing offense nine out of 10 times. While I don't the the "pouting" side of Cutler, I do think he's an intelligent quarterback. The most important thing is for him to buy into and get on the same page in the scheme. In Martz' route tree, the receivers are expected to be at a certain spot on the field, and the quarterback is expected to deliver the ball before they have reached that spot. Given Martz' past history, the ball is obviously going to be in the air a LOT in the Windy City in 2010. I will admit that I might be low balling on the interception total, but I certainly think Cutler can reach the passing yardage and touchdown digits.

2. In 12-team leagues, Kolb's current ADP is 6.06 as the ninth quarterback off the board. So in a way, I'm being a tad conservative on the Houston product. From everything I've heard out of Philly, he could have probably been the starter last year, and is fluent in the West-Coast scheme. The ball will be in the air a ton, as I don't see head coach Andy Reid changing his MO. The Eagles normally air it out 60 percent of the time, so I expect Kolb to have a good shot to finish as a top-12 fantasy field general.

3. I think Chad Henne can be a starter in 14-team leagues. The addition of Brandon Marshall provides his stock with a northward spike, Brian Hartline can be an effective No. 2 (16.3 YPC in his rookie year), while Davone Bess improved last year and is a solid slot guy on the underneath routes. Also, from Weeks 13-16 last season, Henne passed for 300+ yards in three of four tilts, finishing as a top-10 fantasy quarterback during that period.

4. One of the bigger stories of the offseason has been head coach Gary Kubiak's desire to run the football more effectively in 2010. The change at offensive coordinator from Kyle Shanahan to Rick Dennison (offensive line background) supports this thought process. With each passing day, I also worry more and more about the status of tight end Owen Daniels, who is currently sidelined with a knee injury.

Also, running backs Arian Foster and Steve Slaton are reportedly shining in training camp, and the team drafted Ben Tate in the second round. And last but not least, can we be certain that Matt Schaub has shed the "Glass Joe" status, which plagued him in 2007-08 when he missed 11 games due to various injuries? I love Schaub's game, but I think the Texans are going to try to balance things out a bit, to help out a questionable pass rush and secondary on the defensive side of the ball.

[ August 04, 2010, 10:49 AM: Message edited by: Rick Hawes ]

The Brickhouse in St. Louis. Yay or Nay?

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
The Brickhouse in St. Louis. Yay or Nay? Two thumbs up, a definite "Yay."

Just wanted to let everyone know I'm here to answer questions for a couple hours this afternoon.

I also wanted to give you a quick update on my background in the hobby.

I have been competing in Fantasy Football since 1989, and been staff member/writer at various websites, including Dr. Football, Fantasy Asylum, Fantasy Football.com, FFChamps, and am the current Managing Editor of NFL content at Fanball.

I'm fluent in leagues of all shapes and sizes, including IDP formats. Some of my current personal leagues are a 16-team auction dynasty/keeper hybrid (salary cap format) with a separate rookie draft.

I also compete in the 14-team ffWEBMASTERS league (runner-up last year) and an all IDP league with NO offensive players. In 2009, in my first year in the Fantasy Football Index "experts poll," I finished fourth overall, so I figure I'm not a complete dolt.

Anyway, I'm here if anyone is interested in talking some fantasy football.

[ August 04, 2010, 01:11 PM: Message edited by: Rick Hawes ]