Random ADP for Discussion from some early DC drafts.

[pizzatyme]

All, I wanted to post something I've found as interesting from some of the DC drafts thus far. This is an ADP of the first 18 rounds worth of players. In some cases, players from one draft were not drafted in another draft and were assiged pick #365(which would be the first pick of the 27th Rd.)

Again, this is ADP. This post was approved by Greg as it is vanilla as can be.

I also included a variance in # of picks between the 2 drafts to show that this early in the season, there is a lot of difference in:

A) How a draft plays out
B) Where some of these players are valued

In some cases there was a difference of 3 Rounds where a player was taken as early as a top 100 player. I feel that this points to a large variance in perspective that can be used to the "sharks" advantage.

I will be posting this type of info to my site in the subscriber area with analysis.

Here is the ADP and Variance for discussion.


Top 252 Name Pos. Team ADP Variance
1 Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SD 1 0
2 Jackson, Steven RB STL 2 0
3 Johnson, Larry RB KC 3 0
4 Addai, Joseph RB IND 4 0
5 Gore, Frank RB SF 4.5 -1
6 Parker, Willie RB PIT 6 0
7 Bush, Reggie RB NO 7 0
8 Westbrook, Brian RB PHI 8 0
9 Henry, Travis RB DEN 9 0
10 Alexander, Shaun RB SEA 10 0
11 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN 12.5 3
12 Johnson, Chad WR CIN 12.5 -1
13 Maroney, Laurence RB NE 12.5 -3
14 Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAX 14 4
15 Smith, Steve WR CAR 16.5 1
16 Portis, Clinton RB WAS 16.5 -3
17 Brown, Ronnie RB MIA 16.5 -7
18 McGahee, Willis RB BAL 17 4
19 James, Edgerrin RB ARI 19 4
20 Harrison, Marvin WR IND 20.5 3
21 Holt, Torry WR STL 20.5 -5
22 Wayne, Reggie WR IND 21 -2
23 Owens, Terrell WR DAL 24 0
24 Manning, Peyton QB IND 24.5 -3
25 Benson, Cedric RB CHI 26 10
26 Williams, Roy WR DET 26.5 3
27 Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI 26.5 -1
28 Jones, Thomas RB NYJ 28.5 -7
29 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. WR CIN 30.5 -1
30 Williams, Cadillac RB TB 31 6
31 Colston, Marques WR NO 31 -8
32 Johnson, Andre WR HOU 33 0
33 Walker, Javon WR DEN 33 -8
34 Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR 34.5 11
35 Gates, Antonio TE SD 34.5 1
36 Evans, Lee WR BUF 36 0
37 McAllister, Deuce RB NO 36.5 13
38 Palmer, Carson QB CIN 38 -12
39 Boldin, Anquan WR ARI 39 -2
40 Driver, Donald WR GB 39 -4
41 Green, Ahman RB HOU 42.5 9
42 Moss, Randy WR NE 43 -8
43 Lynch, Marshawn RB BUF 43.5 9
44 Barber, Marion RB DAL 46.5 -11
45 Burress, Plaxico WR NYG 47 8
46 Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG 47.5 11
47 Johnson, Calvin WR DET 47.5 -3
48 Brown, Reggie WR PHI 47.5 -5
49 Brady, Tom QB NE 48.5 -13
50 Brees, Drew QB NO 49 -10
51 Coles, Laveranues WR NYJ 50 4
52 Lewis, Jamal RB CLE 52 14
53 Branch, Deion WR SEA 52.5 3
54 Ward, Hines WR PIT 53 -6
55 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 54 16
56 Jones, Julius RB DAL 55 -12
57 McNabb, Donovan QB PHI 56 -2
58 Chambers, Chris WR MIA 56.5 7
59 Betts, Ladell RB WAS 58 -2
60 Bulger, Marc QB STL 58 -4
61 Jackson, Darrell WR SF 59.5 3
62 Moss, Santana WR WAS 60.5 -5
63 Kitna, Jon QB DET 64 0
64 Norwood, Jerious RB ATL 65 0
65 Galloway, Joey WR TB 65.5 -5
66 Taylor, Chester RB MIN 66.5 1
67 Bell, Tatum RB DET 67 10
68 Edwards, Braylon WR CLE 67.5 1
69 Clayton, Mark WR BAL 69.5 1
70 Heap, Todd TE BAL 70 -8
71 Berrian, Bernard WR CHI 72.5 3
72 Cotchery, Jerricho WR NYJ 73 -8
73 Taylor, Fred RB JAX 74 4
74 Shockey, Jeremy TE NYG 75.5 -9
75 Hasselbeck, Matt QB SEA 76 -6
76 Jones, Kevin RB DET 79 18
77 Dunn, Warrick RB ATL 79.5 7
78 Cooley, Chris TE WAS 80.5 -7
79 Morency, Vernand RB GB 81 16
80 Glenn, Terry WR DAL 81.5 1
81 Gonzalez, Tony TE KC 81.5 -3
82 Romo, Tony QB DAL 82 -14
83 Brown, Chris RB TEN 82.5 9
84 Crumpler, Alge TE ATL 85.5 -3
85 Jackson, Vincent WR SD 85.5 -15
86 Winslow, Kellen TE CLE 86 0
87 Holmes, Santonio WR PIT 86.5 9
88 Hackett, D.J. WR SEA 87.5 -5
89 Leinart, Matt QB ARI 88.5 27
90 Davis, Vernon TE SF 89 8
91 Stallworth, Donte WR NE 91 -20
92 Smith, L.J. TE PHI 95 2
93 Curtis, Kevin WR PHI 95.5 7
94 Jennings, Greg WR GB 95.5 -3
95 Young, Vince QB TEN 95.5 -33
96 Witten, Jason TE DAL 96.5 17
97 Rivers, Philip QB SD 97 12
98 Turner, Michael RB SD 97 -4
99 Cutler, Jay QB DEN 100.5 11
100 Chicago Bears DEF CHI 101.5 -9
101 Jordan, LaMont RB OAK 101.5 -19
102 Jackson, Brandon RB GB 102 12
103 Vick, Michael QB ATL 104.5 5
104 Jones, Brandon WR TEN 105 10
105 Baltimore Ravens DEF BAL 106 6
106 Henderson, Devery WR NO 108 20
107 Foster, DeShaun RB CAR 108.5 7
108 Bell, Mike RB DEN 109 -38
109 Curry, Ronald WR OAK 110.5 1
110 Washington, Leon RB NYJ 111.5 -21
111 Rhodes, Dominic RB OAK 112 16
112 McMichael, Randy TE STL 112 -24
113 Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT 113 12
114 Manning, Eli QB NYG 115.5 -1
115 Favre, Brett QB GB 116 2
116 Bennett, Drew WR STL 116.5 -1
117 Furrey, Mike WR DET 116.5 -25
118 Jones, Matt WR JAX 117 -38
119 Droughns, Reuben RB NYG 118 8
120 Bruce, Isaac WR STL 120.5 15
121 San Diego Chargers DEF SD 122 -16
122 Watson, Ben TE NE 123 8
123 Losman, J.P. QB BUF 123 4
124 Welker, Wes WR NE 123 0
125 Mason, Derrick WR BAL 124 30
126 Marshall, Brandon WR DEN 124 12
127 White, LenDale RB TEN 125.5 35
128 Campbell, Jason QB WAS 127 14
129 Smith, Alex QB SF 127.5 -7
130 Porter, Jerry WR OAK 130 -34
131 Delhomme, Jake QB CAR 131.5 13
132 Pennington, Chad QB NYJ 133 14
133 Schaub, Matt QB HOU 134 4
134 Booker, Marty WR MIA 135 -6
135 Green, Trent QB MIA 136 18
136 New England Patriots DEF NE 136.5 -11
137 Horn, Joe WR ATL 137 -8
138 Grossman, Rex QB CHI 137.5 9
139 Gonzalez, Anthony WR IND 140 -38
140 McNair, Steve QB BAL 141 14
141 Garcia, Jeff QB TB 142 14
142 Muhammad, Muhsin WR CHI 142 4
143 Clark, Dallas TE IND 143 -12
144 Leftwich, Byron QB JAX 145.5 17
145 Russell, JaMarcus QB OAK 148 6
146 Thomas, Anthony RB BUF 150.5 -49
147 Daniels, Owen TE HOU 151.5 17
148 Kennison, Eddie WR KC 151.5 1
149 Dallas Cowboys DEF DAL 154.5 13
150 Pittsburgh Steelers DEF PIT 155 18
151 Miller, Heath TE PIT 155.5 5
152 Williams, Reggie WR JAX 156.5 -13
153 Dayne, Ron RB HOU 158 2
154 Smith, Rod WR DEN 160 32
155 Johnson, Eric TE NO 160.5 21
156 Carolina Panthers DEF CAR 161 10
157 Denver Broncos DEF DEN 161.5 1
158 Miami Dolphins DEF MIA 162 -10
159 Morris, Sammy RB NE 162.5 9
160 Jackson, Tarvaris QB MIN 163 -20
161 Jacksonville Jaguars DEF JAX 163.5 -1
162 Meachem, Robert WR NO 163.5 -45
163 Jenkins, Michael WR ATL 164.5 -19
164 Philadelphia Eagles DEF PHI 168.5 7
165 Vinatieri, Adam K IND 170 0
166 Scheffler, Tony TE DEN 171 18
167 Peterson, Adrian RB CHI 171.5 11
168 Toomer, Amani WR NYG 173.5 -55
169 Seattle Seahawks DEF SEA 175 -12
170 Dorsey, DeDe RB IND 177.5 3
171 Robinson, Michael RB SF 177.5 1
172 Buckhalter, Correll RB PHI 178.5 -27
173 Green Bay Packers DEF GB 179.5 17
174 Olsen, Greg TE CHI 181.5 -93
175 Jarrett, Dwayne WR CAR 184.5 33
176 Kaeding, Nate K SD 184.5 -23
177 Graham, Shayne K CIN 185 -4
178 Carter, Drew WR CAR 185.5 13
179 Rackers, Neil K ARI 186.5 5
180 Wilkins, Jeff K STL 187 -4
181 Martin, David TE MIA 189 68
182 San Francisco 49ers DEF SF 189.5 19
183 Leonard, Brian RB STL 189.5 -29
184 Hunt, Tony RB PHI 190 0
185 Bowe, Dwayne WR KC 190 -6
186 Battle, Arnaz WR SF 191.5 17
187 Pittman, Michael RB TB 192.5 -37
188 Washington Redskins DEF WAS 193 4
189 Booker, Lorenzo RB MIA 195.5 -23
190 Williamson, Troy WR MIN 197.5 87
191 New York Jets DEF NYJ 198 -32
192 Frye, Charlie QB CLE 199 28
193 Brown, Josh K SEA 199 -12
194 Henry, Chris RB TEN 200 62
195 Elam, Jason K DEN 201 -14
196 Price, Peerless WR BUF 201.5 -67
197 Minnesota Vikings DEF MIN 202 8
198 St. Louis Rams DEF STL 202 6
199 Gould, Robbie K CHI 202 -42
200 Tampa Bay Buccaneers DEF TB 202.5 11
201 Oakland Raiders DEF OAK 203 30
202 Indianapolis Colts DEF IND 203.5 -11
203 Gostkowski, Stephen K NE 204 -36
204 Buffalo Bills DEF BUF 205 10
205 Wade, Bobby WR MIN 206 56
206 Bennett, Michael RB KC 207 50
207 Dillon, Corey RB FA 209.5 -125
208 New York Giants DEF NYG 210.5 17
209 New Orleans Saints DEF NO 211 -8
210 Jurevicius, Joe WR CLE 212 18
211 Irons, Kenny RB CIN 213 -32
212 Arizona Cardinals DEF ARI 213.5 1
213 Croyle, Brodie QB KC 214.5 151
214 Cincinnati Bengals DEF CIN 214.5 5
215 Atlanta Falcons DEF ATL 214.5 -5
216 Morris, Maurice RB SEA 216 -10
217 Akers, David K PHI 217.5 -53
218 Tennessee Titans DEF TEN 219 6
219 Graham, Daniel TE DEN 220 120
220 Kansas City Chiefs DEF KC 220 0
221 Johnson, Bryant WR ARI 220.5 53
222 Mare, Olindo K NO 220.5 -49
223 Houston Texans DEF HOU 221 6
224 Hester, Devin WR CHI 221 -34
225 Kasay, John K CAR 221.5 -11
226 Hanson, Jason K DET 222.5 -39
227 Stover, Matt K BAL 223 -16
228 Jones, Jacoby WR HOU 225 -138
229 Cleveland Browns DEF CLE 226.5 5
230 Scobee, Josh K JAX 227.5 -37
231 McCown, Josh QB OAK 229 154
232 Huard, Damon QB KC 233 76
233 Pollard, Marcus TE SEA 233.5 -13
234 Detroit Lions DEF DET 235 20
235 Duckett, T.J. RB DET 236 -2
236 Nugent, Mike K NYJ 236 -22
237 Houston, Cedric RB NYJ 291 -16
238 Bryant, Matt K TB 315.5 99
239 Patten, David WR NO 327 76
240 Gado, Samkon RB HOU 327.5 75
241 Wrighster, George TE JAX 331 68
242 Snelling, Jason RB ATL 336 58
243 White, Roddy WR ATL 337 56
244 Jackson, Chad WR NE 337.5 55
245 Utecht, Ben TE IND 346 38
246 Folk, Nick K DAL 349 32
247 Beck, John QB MIA 354 22
248 Strong, Mack RB SEA 355.5 19
249 Heiden, Steve TE CLE 356 18
250 Anderson, Derek QB CLE 356.5 17
251 Alstott, Mike RB TB 357 16
252 Smith, Brad WR NYJ 357.5 15

Obviously, the formatting is better in Excel than on this BB.

What do you make of this ADP?

[boutrous11]

looks average.

[pizzatyme]

I find it interesting that Manning is at 2.10 in these leagues with "premier" drafters. It is much different than his MDC ADP.

MJD is another that is interesting to me. Lots of trust being placed in someone currently entrenched in a RBBC as the #2. I know this could change come trainign camp time, but 1.14 for MJD is too rich for my blood.

[Captain Hook]

Just remember it's only relevant ADP for DC style leagues!

[pizzatyme]

Originally posted by Captain Hook:
Just remember it's only relevant ADP for DC style leagues! Absolutely! Even at that, some of this info is very interesting to me. Maybe I am just reading too much into it?!

Obviously, this ADP doesn't play out for a main event-type league.

[Coltsfan]

I'm somewhat confused as to why people feel MJD is over-valued. He played RBBC last year and put up huge numbers. He came on strong at the end of the year. Fragile Freddie didn't miss significant time last year which could easily change this year. He averaged something like 5.7 yards/carry. I just don't see what is going to change that would cause his production to increase but I do see things that could change that would cause him to become a potential top 6-7 back.

Wayne

[RiFF]

UFFC, you obviously put a lot of work into this so I don't want to rain on your parade but you asked for opinions; mine is an ADP list put together based on a couple or three DC drafts in late June/early July is pretty useless. It might have some value to a player competing in a draft in the next couple of weeks made up of many of the same players who were in the drafts comprising this list. But, at this point, information such as knowing Rhodes got suspended for 4 games or LJ is considering a hold out will have significantly more impact on my thinking than anything on a list such as this. But all knowledge has some value as I'm sure this list does. As training camps get under way and a lot more NFFC drafts are completed the value of an ADP list may increase exponentially, but at this point it might be interesting to look at but not a lot more. I don't believe you can draw any conclusions or begin to develop any draft strategies from it. I actually did learn something; prior to looking at your list I had never heard of Nick Folk!!

[pizzatyme]

Originally posted by RiFF:
UFFC, you obviously put a lot of work into this so I don't want to rain on your parade but you asked for opinions; mine is an ADP list put together based on a couple or three DC drafts in late June/early July is pretty useless. It might have some value to a player competing in a draft in the next couple of weeks made up of many of the same players who were in the drafts comprising this list. But, at this point, information such as knowing Rhodes got suspended for 4 games or LJ is considering a hold out will have significantly more impact on my thinking than anything on a list such as this. But all knowledge has some value as I'm sure this list does. As training camps get under way and a lot more NFFC drafts are completed the value of an ADP list may increase exponentially, but at this point it might be interesting to look at but not a lot more. I don't believe you can draw any conclusions or begin to develop any draft strategies from it. I actually did learn something; prior to looking at your list I had never heard of Nick Folk!! I agree Riff. My point is that this ADP is a work in progress. It will continue to evolve up until the season starts. Therefore, its relative value should be useful.

Don't use this ADP for a Sept.1 draft, but if you have drafts coming up, it might be helpful as it evolves.

That is all.

[BillyWaz]

Interesting to see Gore over Addai, and I honestly would be gobbling up Alexander all day at #10.

[pizzatyme]

Originally posted by Coltsfan:
I'm somewhat confused as to why people feel MJD is over-valued. He played RBBC last year and put up huge numbers. He came on strong at the end of the year. Fragile Freddie didn't miss significant time last year which could easily change this year. He averaged something like 5.7 yards/carry. I just don't see what is going to change that would cause his production to increase but I do see things that could change that would cause him to become a potential top 6-7 back.

Wayne Wayne, I think he will not see another season of 5.5+ YPC. And, I'm not in the business of predicting injuries, even for fragile Fred.

MJD going at 14 leaves little upside to me. But that is what makes this hobby so much fun. We all get an opinion.

Like I've said elsewhere, if TC proves out that MJD is the first option, then my ranking will change. I guess it is a "shark" move in early drafts to get him @1.14 if you have him ranked as a top 6-7 back.