What Is Best Draft Position?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Apr 26, 2004 10:32 am

I know it's too early to talk about fantasy draft strategy, but in a 14-team fantasy contest, what would be the best draft position to have?

Would having the first pick but waiting until the 28th pick in the second round be the best alternative? Would having the 14th and 15th picks be the best position? Or does it matter at all since QBs earn six points per TD pass in the NFFC and some teams might be willing to take a QB in the first or second round?

I know it's early, but if you had your choice of draft picks in the NFFC, which one would be best for you and why? I'm interested to hear your responses. Personally, I think I could win from any position, but last year I really liked picking at the end and getting Ahman Green and another back (okay, so Tiki Barber wasn't a great pick) on the swing. I probably wouldn't mind that again, but that's just me.

Let's get the strategy talk going, so weigh in on this matter.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Apr 27, 2004 3:53 am

Since I'm a strong advocate of the RB-RB theory, I've always been partial to a middle-of-the-first round pick. That way you ensure getting a quality RB with your first pick and, at worst, a solid RB coming back. The problem with picking at the top of the round (especially in a 14-team league) is that while you are going to get a premier fantasy player (well except for those who got burned by Ricky Williams last season) you have to wait so long for the pick to get back to you that a host of quality RBs are off the board and you're left with a problem at a vital postion - even if you have the No. 1 player there.

If I'm not in the middle, being toward the end of the round isn't a bad place to be at the start of a draft if you follow the RB-RB theory since you should be able to get two quality RBs with your first two picks. For example, in an ESPN Expert League I was in last year, I picked last in a 12-team league and got Ahman Green and Stephen Davis back-to-back. That turned out to be a pretty good 1-2 punch during the season.

My preference, though, would be in the middle of the first round since that should afford me being able to pick from an area of strength with each position and with each selection.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Apr 27, 2004 12:08 pm

I like the mid first round as well - although my rule of thumb is that I'll take the latest possible pick to still get a stud

Reallistically, the only position I DON'T want this year is #1-#3... I don't think there's much separation in the top 4-5 players and I'd rather have that slightly better 2nd round pick.

Dave

wombat · Post by **wombat** » Tue Apr 27, 2004 9:18 pm

I'm in agreement, too, about liking the mid-first round. One reason I like it is because you can avoid being left out when there are runs on certain positions.

For instance in our 12-owner league each team must play 2 kickers each week. So it can be helpful to have a third kicker for byes. But not all owners will get one. There have been kicker runs and an owner picking at the top or bottom can get shut out.

By the way, has there been any thought once NFFL leagues have been set to letting each owner know a day or two ahead of time what position they will be drafting? How is the order chosen and is it decided right before the draft starts?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Apr 29, 2004 4:03 am

Stephen, we will determine the draft order several days before the actual event. The results will be made available both here on the boards and via e-mail, so everyone will have several days to know where they're drafting and plot strategy and all that fun stuff. The draft order will be conducted randomly.

wombat · Post by **wombat** » Thu Apr 29, 2004 7:02 pm

Thanks Tom. You can tell I'm an NFFL rookie. I'm glad you do it that way.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Fri Apr 30, 2004 1:49 pm

Originally posted by Dyv:
I like the mid first round as well - although my rule of thumb is that I'll take the latest possible pick to still get a stud

Reallistically, the only position I DON'T want this year is #1-#3... I don't think there's much separation in the top 4-5 players and I'd rather have that slightly better 2nd round pick.

Dave Mid round can be dangerous. I know. Last year I had the 5 pick which was nice, choice of good RBs. On the way back all the proven RBs were gone and the hyped RBs were left. I went for the Willie Green hype, although I knew it was a BIG risk. Later I fell for the "Amos Zereoue will be the featured back" hype. With Willie and Amos as RB2 and RB3 I was set for the year...set to come in last.

The guy with the 4 pick was upset that I took Willie. He was forced to take a very good WR instead. Poor guy.

I think that was part bad luck and part bad planning. I don't like taking risks in the 1st 2 rounds so I think late 1st is more to my liking.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Apr 30, 2004 4:54 pm

Just out of curiosity JP, who were the RBs you passed on to take Willie Green? Anyone of significance?

I really think that second-round pick is often a HUGE one in drafts. Your first-round pick should be a slam dunk and everyone should be able to walk away feeling good about the guy they get there. I especially think that will be the case this year since it looks like there will probably be a minimum of 10 RBs worthy of varying degrees of first-round selection. But you're right, if you hit a drop-off in the second round among RBs (again assuming you're a proponent of the RB-RB theory which I strongly advocate) than that second-round pick becomes huge. Do you reach for a RB you're not truly sure about (for example, someone like Curtis Martin or Eddie George last year) or do you grab the "stud" WR if one is there and then hope there's a decent RB sitting there in the 3rd round? As you said, last year the dropoff was pretty severe and the Zereoue/Staley types that were hanging around in the 3rd round didn't pan out at all. So if you bypassed a RB in the second round, your RB situation may have been problematic all year long, no matter who you got as a RB in the first round.

So that second-round pick has to be on the money because I agree, you can't mess around with those early-round picks. I've always believed you set the tone of your draft (and subsequently your season) by what you do with your first three picks. You may not win a championship with those picks, but you sure as heck can lose one there.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Sat May 01, 2004 5:48 am

Keep in mind the WCOFF draft was after the first game of the season. If I recall, the Jets played and Curtis Martin looked like he was done, not Dunn, Done

At my pick (19) I think the only RB2s left were Martin and George. At that point there were 3 WRs taken and the rest were RBs. I had really wanted Stephen Davis badly. He had an ADP of 24 so I was feeling pretty good about my plan. Davis was taken early 2nd. I was also hoping for Dillon with an ADP of 19. No luck. They took the aging Charlie Garner and the fumbling Tiki Barber.

Sheesh, tough league, and to think I was picking next to the Wizard! I guess the cameras brought out the best in the other guys.

This year the 6 points for passing TDs should spread things out a little more.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Sun May 02, 2004 5:15 am

In my main league last year (it's a keeper league where you can keep one player from the previous year's team as long as that player was not drafted in the first 3 rounds) I took Portis in the first round and wanted Davis bigtime in the second. I had hyped him all off-season in our magazines and online and knew he was primed for a big season. Well when Vick got hurt, I was steamed because I knew somebody would take Vick in the early stages of the second round and push a RB (possibly Davis) to me where I was picking. And sure enough, Davis was chosen one pick before me in the second round.

Good thing I've gotten over that.