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Week 3 Thoughts & Observations

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:36 am
by Tom Kessenich
Here are some random thoughts and observations as I wonder why I took Chris Godwin over DeAndre Hopkins in so many of my most important leagues.

Godwin over Hopkins was, quite simply, a Fantasy Football 101-type failure. I bought into a narrative, in this case – “Tom Brady loves him a slot WR” – while ignoring superior talent. That’s not to say Chris Godwin isn’t talented, he is. He’s quite talented. But DeAndre Hopkins is a Hall of Fame-level talent. I allowed a popular narrative to inform my analysis and as a result I ignored my No. 1 fantasy football philosophy – always trust the talent.

It was an egregious mistake. Now all I can do is hope it doesn’t cost me bigtime this season.

The Miami Dolphins aren’t very good, but I have a ton of respect for head coach Brian Flores in terms of how he’s begun utilizing his RBs. Myles Gaskin has clearly become the Dolphins’ best back and last Thursday night Flores treated him as such. He didn’t allow the offseason acquisitions of Jordan Howard and Matt Breida to unfairly influence who should be the primary player at that important position. That’s what a good head coach does – playing time based on merit. Refreshing to see.

Feeling better this week, ARob owners?

I thought so.

I have no words Falcons fans. No words at all.

The fact the Bears made it to Nick Foles while not losing a game is pretty remarkable. Foles obviously isn’t all that good but he’s much better than Mitch Trubisky and that’s obvious to anyone who has seen them both play. A QB change for an unbeaten team is pretty damn rare. Matt Nagy is living a charmed life so far this season.

Jim Graham doesn’t have a lot left but he’s still pretty darn good in the Red Zone. Wonder why Matt LaFleur couldn’t figure that out last season.

I didn’t buy in fully to Josh Allen going into this season and boy was I wrong. He’s playing lights-out football and has made tremendous strides from a year ago. Plus, like all great players he’s so insanely much fun to watch.

I have too many shares of Chris Godwin and none with Stefon Diggs. Whoops.

Sorry Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown but the Rams’ backfield belongs to Darrell Henderson now.

Pretty nice bounce back season for Jared Goff so far.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are just gonna own so many defenses this season. Best RB tandem in the game and it’s obviously not even up for discussion.

Dwayne Haskins wasn’t easy to watch on Sunday, but I still believe patience needs to be a virtue here. Give the kid a full season and let’s see if he can grow and learn from his mistakes.

Here’s my weekly reminder that Terry McLaurin is the truth.

Kirk Cousins played very well for most of the game.

Dalvin Cook went bonkers.

Justin Jefferson went really bonkers.

And the Vikings still lost.

Gonna be a long season, Vikings fans. Sorry.

For all those who say RBs shouldn’t get paid I hope you were watching Cook and Al Kamara on Sunday. THAT’S why you pay great players. Because they’ve earned it.

Oh, don’t @ me about Joe Mixon. I’ll get to him soon enough. Trust me.

I’m really happy that Stephen Gostkowski has bounced back from a dismal Week 1 and now can’t seem to miss. But would it have killed him to NOT be so horrible in Week 1 when I had money on the Titans in Vegas?

I mean c’mon man. What in the actual hell?

Sony Michel rushed for over 100 yards and Sexy Rexy Burkhead scored a dozen touchdowns or so because it’s the New England backfield and of course they did.

By my unofficial count, the 49ers were missing 273 starters on Sunday and they still completely dominated the Giants. What does this mean? Two things:

1. I suck at math
2. The Giants suck period.

Without his starting QB and a host of key offensive weapons Kyle Shanahan adapted on Sunday and may have found himself another weapon to terrorize defenses in rookie receiver Brandon Aiyuk. The focus may be elsewhere presently in the NFC race but that’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

I have some thoughts about the Eagles. There’s gonna be A LOT of discussion about Carson Wentz this week and much of it is deserved. He has not played well. He continues to make far too many terrible decisions and his turnovers are a major problem.

HOWEVER …

The Eagles lost in overtime on Sunday to the Bengals because of head coach Doug Pederson. Plain and simple. Wentz obviously had plenty of issues once again, but he also led the team to overtime on a scoring drive that was, quite simply, at an MVP caliber. He was brilliant and despite far too many mistakes he gave his team a chance to win.

At that point Pederson failed. Badly.

With the game on the line and the ball around midfield late in OT, Pederson went into a shell offensively. Rather than playing too win his play-calling grew far too conservative and he ended the game by literally punting it away. I love Miles Sanders as much as the next person (probably more if we’re being honest) but there’s no reason to be calling running plays in opponents’ territory with the clock winding down to a finish.
Criticize Wentz for the mistakes he’s made. That’s justified. But he still put the Eagles in a position to win the game. Once there, however, Pederson failed and that’s on him.

As for the Bengals it’s only three weeks into the season but once again Joe Mixon is an early season bust. He’s absolutely a talented RB but the trend of poor early season starts continues on this season and it’s time everyone in the industry accepts this is who he is and it is more accurately reflected in his analysis and value.

Less than 50 yards rushing (again) and a non-existent role in the passing game (again) has rendered Mixon to RB3 status. That’s who he is right now. It’s obviously not who we want him to be or believe he can be but that’s what he is three weeks into the season. As we near the quarter turn of the season it’s time to set aside our hopes and dreams and focus more clearly on what type of production we’re actually receiving from the players on our roster.

And if you have Mixon he has been a gigantic disappointment.

Mixon is bound to improve because he is quite talented, and he always shows more later in the season. But for now, it’s time to ignore where you drafted him and focus only on what he’s doing (or not doing) for your fantasy team and make your starting decision at RB appropriately.

Dionte Johnson’s concussion is why we shouldn’t ever ask for nice things.

Oh look, Anthony McFarland showed up on Sunday. Just what everyone with James Conner shares was hoping for.

DeShaun Watson. Baller.

Randy Cobb can still play.

Have the Jets fired Adam Gase yet?

No seriously. Have they?

Props to everyone who ranked the Colts’ defense over Joe Mixon this year. Well done.

In the past five quarters, Mike Davis has 16 receptions. There were some gaudy FAAB bids made on Davis and he obviously is only a short-term fix since Christian McCaffrey will return in a month or so, but he should be a clear RB1 as long as he’s the starter. His role in the passing game is obviously massive. If you can pick a RB1 up off the Waiver Wire during the season you pay the price to get it.

Oh, and everyone who invested heavily in Devonta Freeman instead of Davis? Well, there’s always next week, I guess.

So yay?

Austin Ekeler falling into the second round continues to look more and more like one of 2020’s biggest gifts.

One week ago Rob Gronkowski was just a blocker. Somebody forgot to tell Tom Brady that.

So maybe the Tampa Bay backfield doesn’t belong to Len Fournette after all.

I feel for Broncos fans. I really do. This season had so much promise. That young offense could’ve been something to watch. But with all the injuries it’s nothing short of painful to behold.

Kyler Murray had three of the most beautiful touchdowns you could hope to see on Sunday. He also threw three of the absolute worst interceptions any quarterback threw this week. Sunday’s loss to the Lions was on him.

Adrian Peterson still making people miss at age 73.

Welcome back Ken Golladay.

I’m totally cool with Russ Wilson and Dak Prescott squaring off every week for the rest of the season.

Speaking of Russ, can we just give him the MVP Award now? Fibe more TD passes on Sunday (should’ve been six had D.K. Metcalf not gone Full Leon Lett) and absolute ownership on the field. No defense is going to slow him down. Yes, the Seahawks are finally letting Russ cook and the only question that needs to be asked is …

What took you so long to figure it out, Pete?

Congratulations to everyone who had Cedric Wilson ranked ahead of Joe Mixon this year. Well done.

The Aaron Jones Touchdown Regression Season carries on. He’s now on pace for 27 touchdowns. Maybe next year the industry will properly value Jones based on the player he is.

Maybe.

Who am I kidding? I’m gonna spend another offseason wondering why people are letting him fall a round or two later than he should be going again.

It’s almost as if Aaron Rodgers is really pissed off the Packers drafted a quarterback in the first round this year and wants everyone to know it and opposing defenses to pay for it.

Al Kamara No. 1 overall pick in 2021. Who says no?

I realize the popular narrative when assessing the Saints is Drew Brees and his lack of arm strength. But maybe, just maybe, the focus should be on a truly terrible Saints’ defense that has been positively annihilated the past two games.

Just a thought.

The Saints gave Taysom Hill a two-year, $21-million contract in the offseason. No really. That’s a thing that actually happened.

Stop laughing. I’m not making it up.

It really did.

I’m damn serious.

You really need to stop laughing. I mean it.

And finally, if you have any shares of T.J. Hockenson, get him into your Week 4 lineup now. As in NOW. Don’t know if you’ve noticed but the Saints are positively awful vs. TEs this season (I’m pretty sure the Packers’ TEs just happened to wander into the Superdome by mistake last night and were asked to suit up) and next week Hockenson gets to take aim at ‘em.

You’re welcome.

Re: Week 3 Thoughts & Observations

Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:55 am
by Yah Mule
"Godwin over Hopkins was, quite simply, a Fantasy Football 101-type failure. I bought into a narrative, in this case – “Tom Brady loves him a slot WR” – while ignoring superior talent. That’s not to say Chris Godwin isn’t talented, he is. He’s quite talented. But DeAndre Hopkins is a Hall of Fame-level talent. I allowed a popular narrative to inform my analysis and as a result I ignored my No. 1 fantasy football philosophy – always trust the talent."

People often get themselves into trouble by overvaluing their target share predictions. Drafters running away from Darren Waller was a perfect example. Two rookies and a collection of castoffs were going to take away his looks? Maybe, but you're projecting several players will perform at their highest level instead of one superior player just maintaining his strong and consistent level of play.