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How much does your fantasy football success depend on something TOTALLY out of your control? I'm talking about the amount of points scored against you by other teams. Consider the following FACTS taken from the NFFC.

avg # of wins for the 20 teams with the MOST points scored against = 3.0
avg # of wins for the 20 teams with the LEAST points scored against = 6.4

Obviously it pays VERY SIGNIFICANTLY to “luck” into a favorable schedule. That’s a 113% increase in the avg # of wins based on 100% luck!

Twenty teams not enough sample size for you? How about 50 teams?
avg # of wins for the 50 teams with the MOST points scored against = 3.3
avg # of wins for the 50 teams with the LEAST points scored against = 6.2

Again, even with a much greater sample size, it pays VERY SIGNIFICANTLY to “luck” into a favorable schedule. That’s an 88% increase in the avg # of wins based on 100% luck!

The above data shows how the following scenario is possible with 2 teams from the same league…
Team Whatever It Takes BWAZZ has a 9-0 record with 1230.5 points scored.
Team Hammerheads has a 5-4 record with 1280.7 points scored.

Why such a difference in records? You guessed it…points scored against!!
Team Whatever It Takes BWAZZ has 915.45 scored against it (102 per week)!!!
Team Hammerheads has 1175.95 scored against it (131 per week)!!!

On average, Team Hammerheads has had to endure teams scoring 29 more points a week against him than Team Whatever It Takes BWAZZ. That’s almost 5 touchdowns a week, every week. Imagine starting off in that hole every week due to no fault of your own!

PS – In one league the top two teams in the H2H standings…
FRESH OUTTA LOLLIPOPS 8-1
Disposable Heroes Inc 7-2

FRESH OUTTA LOLLIPOPS is the 6th best team in the league based on points scored. (In addition, he played bye week players in his lineup at least once this year.). He’s lucked out and played the 3rd easiest schedule in terms of points against.
Disposable Heroes Inc is the 9th best team in the league based on points scored. He’s lucked out and played the 4th easiest schedule in terms of points against.

I can only hope that the “law of averages” takes effect and the better teams win out. If not, some very good teams in this league will miss out on winning money. Maybe we can call H2H a way to redistribute money from good fantasy owners to both good and/or lucky fantasy owners?

Long live H2H and the “energy and zest” we all get from it! :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

PSS – If I have enough time, I will run the stats for WCOFF. Should provide for good MB fodder on their boards.

Gekko,

Wait at minute.. are you saying there is a luck based element that is a part of H2H fantasy football? Is that what you are "exposing?"

[ November 05, 2008, 09:28 AM: Message edited by: Renman ]

Originally posted by Renman:
Gekko,

Wait at minute.. are you saying there is a luck based element that is a part of H2H fantasy football? Is that what you are "exposing?" the amount of luck ren

Yeah, obviously the best scoring system is by total points. But to reduce the luck factor each team should have the 4 best and 4 worst weekly scores discarded to reduce statistical anomolies.

:sacrasm:

I do not buy the argument that total score is ANY better than HTH. There is often MORE luck involved in total score. For instance, Leonard Weaver blows up for 50 pts. That anomoly would only result in one win in HTH but the extra 35 pts from this anomoly would carry through in the total points scored format.

Total points isn't better, it is only different.

FF is by definition a "luck box" - always has been and always will be (especially GG if compared to baseball, basketball, or hockey who have Much longer seasons and five to ten times as many games for things to even out)

That said, the popularity of FF - including H2H continues to be on the rise and will be in the future.....some of that for the simplicity and enjoyability of each week's results being (mostly) on ONE day - a lot of joy or angst and then that week is over and everyone moves on to the next week/game.

Gekko,

My point is we already know there is a large amount of luck in H2H formats. What are you exposing?

Isn't that why we have two ways to cash and make the post season in the NFFC (H2H and total points)?

Originally posted by Bezoar:
I do not buy the argument that total score is ANY better than HTH. There is often MORE luck involved in total score. are u serious?????? if you are WOW

you deciding who to draft and play is all skill.

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
The above data shows how the following scenario is possible with 2 teams from the same league…
Team Whatever It Takes BWAZZ has a 9-0 record with 1230.5 points scored.
Team Hammerheads has a 5-4 record with 1280.7 points scored.

Why such a difference in records? You guessed it…points scored against!!
Team Whatever It Takes BWAZZ has 915.45 scored against it (102 per week)!!!
Team Hammerheads has 1175.95 scored against it (131 per week)!!!

On average, Team Hammerheads has had to endure teams scoring 29 more points a week against him than Team Whatever It Takes BWAZZ. That’s almost 5 touchdowns a week, every week. Imagine starting off in that hole every week due to no fault of your own!

Mark,

Since I am one of the teams "in question", I will play "devil's advocate" here. First, I want to say that I have been in Hammerheads position MANY times, so I am not a "H2H guy"at all.

I agree we need to do something to award the better teams, but what people are forgetting is NO SYSTEM is perfect, and there will always be loopholes to get in the playoffs, championship round, etc.

To take this info a bit further, I posted both Hammerheads and Whatever It Takes-BWAZZ records if this system were to use "all play". First are the results if you played everyone EACH week (meaning you played 13 games each week)....


Hammerheads would be 85-33
Whatever It Takes-BWAZZ team would be 83-35

If it was set up where the top 7 teams each week got a win, and the bottom 7 teams each week got loss (similar to weeks 12 and 13 in the NBC), here are the results.....

Hammerheads would be 5-4
Whatever It Takes-BWAZZ team would be 6-3

While the "overall all play" is close, the "get a win for being in the top 1/2" shows that Hammerheads has been really good to good 5 weeks, or mediocre to poor in 4 weeks thus far. Based on this Whatever It Takes- BWAZZ has been in the top 7 in scoring ONCE more than Hammerheads. My question is what difference does it make if both teams score 140 points, but Team A who is playing Hammerheads loses 140-139, and Team B who is playing Whatever It Takes-BWAZZ loses 140-85??? The law of averages says things SHOULD even out over time, but in this specific example, both teams in ANY format have been the two best thus far, and should be playoff teams. Since the NFFC has the 3 week playoff system set up (which is AWESOME!) if Hammerheads is the better team over those 3 weeks in TOTAL POINTS (which he has been better thus far), then he will get the $5,000.

Again, while I am not a big supporter for H2H I think it MUST be used to keep the numbers from falling WAY down in this contest. Having a "total points league" (with zero H2H) would destroy this contest, and would lead to so many more dead teams, and many more people just quitting.

As I said on a previous thread, combine total points, H2H, and all play (either format listed above) and that would eliminate more luck (which I am ALL for).

Again though, you will ALWAYS have teams get in because of "this or that". There was a team that got in the playoffs 3 years ago that won best record (when record got the $5,000 and NO playoff! ) that was TWELVE in total points in their league. Now that is a problem, but 80-90% of the time, I am betting that the 2 best teams from each league get in.

Can that number be improved.... sure, but totally eliminating H2H isn't the answer, IMO

Combining TOTAL POINTS, H2H, and ALL PLAY is the ticket!

Originally posted by Renman:
My point is we already know there is a large amount of luck in H2H formats. What are you exposing?
i don't think most people agree with what your opinion..."there is a large amount of luck in H2H formats"

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
Combining TOTAL POINTS, H2H, and ALL PLAY is the ticket! billy, i think you already know this, but i'll state it, my post was not a rub against you at all. you have a very strong team and have scored a lot of points so far. you deserve to be up there.

as for your example above, can you explain how that would work? how many teams make the plaoffs and which teams make it?