My Week 2 Vibes

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 3:06 am

The great thing about Week 1 is ... well it's Week 1. You finally have a chance to watch some real football after weeks (OK, who am I kidding ... months) of prep work. You now have a chance to see what your team has and what it can do.

The bad thing about Week 1? Well it's Week 1 and sometimes the guys you love quickly become the guys you wish you hadn't drafted.

But there's no need to panic. The sky is not falling after Week 1 no matter how dismal things might have been. If you truly believed in a player, don't give up on him after just one poor game. That doesn't make the poor Week 1 any better but it hopefully does provide some perspective and prevent you from making any rash decisions that will only serve to harm your team as the season goes along.

With that said, here are my vibes for this week looking back on Week 1 and ahead to Week 2.

Greg and I are in the WCOFF for the first time and we drafted what we believe is a strong team. Were it not for a staggering performance by Tony Romo and the Vikings' D we'd be at 1-0. Instead, it's 0-1 but with the strength of our team I think we'll bounce back. We just need to get Wes Welker off the bench.

Speaking of the Cowboys, weren't they supposed to have an improved defense this season?

One defense that is definitely improved is Green Bay's. That was no fluke against the Eagles, people. The Packers' D is legit. As for the offense? Well I'll be kind and call it a "work in progress."

I picked up a carton of milk yesterday and I saw a picture of Deion Branch on the back.

Welcome back to the good graces of your fantasy owners, LaMont Jordan.

You know what's really fun? Finding a late-round gem like Ronald Curry and Wes Welker. You know what really hurts? Having those guys on your bench behind players you think are going to be better in Week 1 like Reggie Brown.

Ouch.

If I'm Brad Childress I don't even mess around. I make Adrian Peterson the starting RB and build the offense around him. It may be the only chance his team has to make the playoffs or have a respectable offense. The kid is the real deal, no question about it.

It's only one game and it was against an aggressive defense playing at home but the Joey Harrington I saw in Atlanta sure looked a lot like the Joey Harrington I saw in Detroit and Miami.

Clinton Portis looked a lot like Clinton Portis, meaning the owners who grabbed him in the third round or possibly later may have gotten themselves a rather gigantic steal.

The running back situations in New England, Miami and Chicago look like they're going to be a lot muddier as the season goes on. As you all know, I've been down on Ronnie Brown for weeks and things just keep getting uglier for him. Jesse Chatman has Cam Cameron's eye and I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon.

One bright spot for the Dolphins was Chris Chambers re-emerged. The guy is talented without question and maybe Trent Green will help him more than I originally thought.

Maybe.

This just in - Deion Branch has just caught a pass. OK, it was only in practice but that is a step in the right direction.

Don’t look now but Rudi Johnson’s value in point/reception leagues may be on the rise. He caught 3 passes in Week 1 (one short of his career high) and had 6 passes thrown his way - the most he’s ever gotten in a game in his career. With Chris Henry out for the first eight games and Chris Perry gone for at least the first six, Rudi could become a more important figure in the Bengals’ passing game.

Gotta love the Jets fans who were cheering when Chad Pennington limped off the field against the Patriots on Sunday. Classy. Real classy.

Somebody might want to remind the Jaguars they're supposed to have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

After one week, Drew Brees has the same number of receptions as his former teammate Joe Horn. I'm pretty sure Joe Horn is not happy that Joe Horn is tied with Brees in that category.

Chris Cooley owners may need to find a backup plan. With Jon Jansen out for the year, Cooley may be used more to block as was the case in Week 1. He's far too talented to ignore so I would expect him to get involved but this is a situation worth monitoring.

I had to move Randy Moss down in the pre-season due to the ongoing hamstring problems he was having. But his upside sure was realized in Week 1. When our second issue went to press we had him ranked 10th among WRs. Maybe I should've left him there. If he stays on the same page with Tom Brady, look out.

Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith. Looked like 2004 again.

And finally, as I expected Detroit's passing offense proved superior to Oakland's pass defense in Week 1. So what's my Slam Dunk Lock Pick of the Week for Week 2? How about the Saints, who are four-point favorites at Tampa Bay? After being embarrassed in Week 1, I expect the Saints will be fired up and take it out on the Bucs. They win by at least a touchdown. Book it.

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 3:42 am

Clinton Portis looked a lot like Clinton Portis, meaning the owners who grabbed him in the third round or possibly later may have gotten themselves a rather gigantic steal.

WELL BETTS STILL GOT THE SAME AMOUNT OF CARRIES AS PORTIS AND PORTIS HAVE A BIG FAT ZERO IN RECEPTIONS. UNLESS THOSE TWO VARIABLES CHANGE HE WILL FINISH JUST AVERAGE.

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 3:50 am

KOT,

It was pretty obvious to me that they were easing Portis into the gameplan. It was also very apparent who the better of the 2 backs were.

I guess time will tell, but Portis should move closer to 65 or 70% of the touches going forward.

Provided he stays healthy, this will be much more than average.

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:07 am

I AGREE THE PROBLEM IS THAT YOU HAVE TO LOOK A OVERLOOKED VARIABLE. MONEY. BETTS GOT A PRETTY HEFTY CONTRACT EXTENSION LAST YEAR. SO THEY ARE NOT GOING TO LET THAT ROT ON THE BENCH. GRANTED PORTIS'S IS LARGER BUT BETTS IS STILL GOING TO CUT INTO HIS FANTASY VALUE. BY THE WAY RUSS NICE SCORE IN THE JULY 26 SATELLITE. 217 PTS. WOW!!!!

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:09 am

If Portis stays healthy the worst he'll be in my opinion is a Top 15 RB. That's the floor. His ceiling is Top 5-10. If you got a Top 15 RB in the third round or later you did very well and if you got a Top 10 RB in the third round or later you did great. That's how championships are won.

The jury's still out on Portis because he has to stay healthy. But he looked darn good in Week 1.

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:15 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
If Portis stays healthy the worst he'll be in my opinion is a Top 15 RB. That's the floor. His ceiling is Top 5-10. If you got a Top 15 RB in the third round or later you did very well and if you got a Top 10 RB in the third round or later you did great. That's how championships are won.

The jury's still out on Portis because he has to stay healthy. But he looked darn good in Week 1. IN MY OPINION ITS HARD TO BE IN THE TOP 15 BACKS IF YOU IN A COMMITEE SITUATION. SINCE YOU HAVE A NUMBER OF BACKS WHO ARE NOT. EVEN IF YOU GETTING 70% OF THE WORKLOAD. THAT MEANS YOUR TOUCHES MUST COUNT. GRANTED BUSH IS IN THE SAME SITUATION BUT HE IS USED SO PROLIFICALLY AS A RECEIVER WHICH RAISES HIS VALUE. PORTIS CRACKING THE TOP 15 IS STRICTLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THEY USE BETTS. WHICH I FEEL IS STILL GOING TO BE ALOT.

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:19 am

Tom,

I wish I had my $650 DC RBs on my Main roster.

1.07 Westbrook
2.08 Benson (Blah)
3.08 Portis

7.08 D. Foster
10.07 Kevin Jones

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:20 am

Originally posted by KOTRAX:
I AGREE THE PROBLEM IS THAT YOU HAVE TO LOOK A OVERLOOKED VARIABLE. MONEY. BETTS GOT A PRETTY HEFTY CONTRACT EXTENSION LAST YEAR. SO THEY ARE NOT GOING TO LET THAT ROT ON THE BENCH. GRANTED PORTIS'S IS LARGER BUT BETTS IS STILL GOING TO CUT INTO HIS FANTASY VALUE. BY THE WAY RUSS NICE SCORE IN THE JULY 26 SATELLITE. 217 PTS. WOW!!!! KOT,

Thanks! Would rather it be in the Main Event, but happy nonetheless.

renman · Post by **renman** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:23 am

Tom,

I hope the "vibes" will become a regular thing this year..

-Branch will bounce back. I think that was a fluke and would not be surprised at all to see Hassel make an extra effort to feed him some balls this week to appease his #1 guy... especially with Hackett going down.

-I think as the season goes on and the Dolphins lose more, Miami will start using Brown more in an effort to really see what they have in this guy. Keep in mind in a bad offense like that he can likely get 5+ targets per game on dump off passes. If Miami is playing from behind a bunch you might see Brown get the kind of reception #'s Steve Jackson did in the second half last year.

-No one could predict Moss breaking out like that. Most who took him took him in a spot where it was worth the minor gamble. I would have avoided him more due to the fact the Pats usually spread the ball around a ton and have so many weapons.

-NY fans are (in my opinion) some of the most classless and ignorant fans in the country. I was not surprised at all when the New York punks fans cheered an injured Pennington. I care less who wants to make up that they were cheering the backup coming in (which is just about the same thing), they were cheering that Chad was going out.. period.

-Tough for me to get too too much on the Portis bandwagon when so many touches will still goto Betts.

-Was there a worse coaching move last week than Billick not hammering the run with Mcgahee to tie the game AND eat the clock against the Bengals? Embarrassing...

This is a great time in leagues where trading is allowed as many owners panic over poor performances by certain players.. or overreact to break out games by players who wont sustain it...