Can You Win From Any Draft Slot?

[Greg Ambrosius]

This would be a better place to hold this discussion, rather than hijack my nice Welcome to the NFFC thread!

[Gordon Gekko]

greg, i'm gathering some good data. i'd like to "speak now", but i need to review the data to ensure i know what i'm saying is true. this could be big + for the NFFC. stay tuned.

[ May 02, 2005, 08:40 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

[Greg Ambrosius]

Here's the data from last year, Gordon. I posted this on another thread the day after the NFFC regular season concluded:

Below are the draft positions for the 32 playoff teams and the number of playoff teams that drafted from each spot:

No. 1: 2
No. 2: 4
No. 3: 3
No. 4: 2
No. 5: 1
No. 6: 2
No. 7: 3
No. 8: 4
No. 9: 0
No. 10: 0
No. 11: 2
No. 12: 3
No. 13: 4
No. 14: 2

34% of the playoff teams came from the final four spots in the draft and 34% of the playoff teams came from the first four spots in the draft. Only spots Nos. 9 and 10 didn't field playoff teams.

Of the 16 league champions, here's where they drafted:
No. 1: 2
No. 2: 2
No. 3: 1
No. 4: 1
No. 5: 1
No. 7: 1
No. 8: 2
No. 11: 1
No. 12: 2
No. 13: 1
No. 14: 2

Any thoughts on all this? Does it prove anything?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Also, on the other thread Jersey Paul said he wouldn't play in the NFFC's main event unless we instituted a three-week league playoff format to determine the $5,000 winner if H2H and total points were split. I respect his opinion and Gordon's on this point, but agree to disagree with them. This year we increased second place league money to $2,500, so if you finish with highest total points in your league and don't win the head-to-head title you still win $2,500 and carry an advantage into the three week's of playoffs. There's already plenty at stake during those final three weeks without a league playoff.

Just as a sidenote, last year 11 of the 16 league champions also finished with highest total points in their leagues. In fact, here's all of the total points facts from last year:

1) 11 of 16 NFFC League champions had the best record and the high point total.

2) 3 of the 16 NFFC League champions had the best record and the second highest point total. One of those teams was just 8 points behind the league leader.

3) 1 of the 16 NFFC League champions had the best record and the third highest point total.

4) 1 of the 16 NFFC League champions had the best record and the fourth highest point total. That team also won its last 12 games to finish 12-1, the best record in the NFFC.

5) All 6 New York NFFC Leagues had champions with the best record and the highest point total in their league. Three of the six leagues in Las Vegas ended that way and two of the four Chicago leagues ended that way.

6) 6 of the 16 NFFC Leagues had 2 or more teams tied for first place with best records. In New York League 5, FIVE teams tied for first place at 9-4. In New York League 3, FOUR teams tied for first place at 9-4. In Las Vegas 3 and 4, two teams tied at 10-3. In New York 4 and Las Vegas 2, two teams tied at 9-4. There were no ties for league titles in the four Chicago Leagues.

7) There were no undefeated teams in the NFFC. Team NEW won his first 12 games, but lost in Week 13 to finish 12-1 in Las Vegas 5. Team Cannataro lost its first game in Chicago League 4, but won its last 12 to finish 12-1. Six teams finished 11-2, including three in Chicago.

8) 27 of the 32 playoff teams finished first or second in their league.

We have added a wild card format this year that says any team that finished in the top 10 percent of the total number of teams that didn't finish first or second in their league automatically qualifies for the year-end playoffs (top 35 teams this year if we finish with 350 teams). So we are protecting all of the total points leaders this year.

I can understand the principle JP is taking -- not entering over a possible $2,500 he feels he rightfully could win -- but we have done a lot to make sure the best teams are duly rewarded. In my opinion, H2H champion is still worthy of the $5,000 league prize and it will stay that way for 2005.

Now, if JP wants to talk about the randomness of the draft slot, I'll let Gordon start up a different thread and make his pitch on that one.

[JerseyPaul]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Also, on the other thread Jersey Paul said he wouldn't play in the NFFC's main event unless we instituted a three-week league playoff format to determine the $5,000 winner if H2H and total points were split. The playoff could be 1 week also, the key element is some sort of playoff.

[JerseyPaul]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
This would be a better place to hold this discussion, rather than hijack my nice Welcome to the NFFC thread! Clearly, you can win from any position. Team results are based on; Initial Draft; Add/Drop; Start/Bench; and Luck (injury, etc.). Initial Draft is only 1 element among many, but a very important one.

That being said, of course early slots are better than later slots. Let us say everybody knew player performance ahead of time (equivalent of saying all the owners are equally skilled at projections). Look for a moment at RBs, WRs and TEs combined actual in 2004 (so not to get into the RB vs. WR argument).

Number 1 scorer was Muhsin Muhammed at 330
Number 14 scorer was Drew Bennett at 279
Number 15 scorer was Tony Gonzalez at 270
Number 28 scorer was Nate Burleson at 230

So in a perfect draft in rounds 1 and 2, Team 1 has a total of 560 points and Team 14 has a total of 549 points.

Team 1 has an edge of a point per game based on its draft position. Not much, but it's real. Team 14 has to be that much better at team managemrnt or that much luckier.

So does slot matter?...yes; a lot?...no

[ May 02, 2005, 02:38 PM: Message edited by: JerseyPaul ]

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Also, on the other thread Jersey Paul said he wouldn't play in the NFFC's main event unless we instituted a three-week league playoff format to determine the $5,000 winner if H2H and total points were split. The playoff could be 1 week also, the key element is some sort of playoff. [/QUOTE]Is there more luck involved in a 1-week playoff format for $2,500 than in 13 weeks of head-to-head competition? I agree with Gordon that if any playoff format needs to be used to break up that last $2,500 it would have to be over the last three weeks. But again, isn't there already enough at stake during those last three weeks?

[Greg Ambrosius]

JP, yes the draft slot does matter, but you made a great point above. After two rounds it might be worth 16 points, but the No. 1 WR you picked also scored 330 points from the eighth or ninth round last year. Muhammad more than made up that 16 point difference in one week. The owners who draft well for ALL 18 rounds have the best chance of winning the $5,000 league prize, not just those with the first four picks. Last year, 6 league champs came from the last four picks and 6 league champs came from the first four picks. It was very balanced.

This year I think a lot of people would like one of the top three picks, but after that there is no consensus among the Top 20 picks. It's going to be a wild year and the 14th pick may end up being more valuable than the 4th pick. I think we'll see a lot of differences among the 25 leagues this year when it comes to the first round picks. It should be fun.

JP, we'd love to have ya and I know you enjoyed the competition last year. If Gordon can win from the 13th spot......well,

[Gordon Gekko]

Greg,
I know I'm curt with some of my posts, but I just wanted to let you (and others) know that overall, I'm VERY pleased with the NFFC and how you operate it. Although there are some things I would change, the NFFC is currently the best high stakes fantasy football event in the marketplace.

I think some of the draft slot numbers that I'm going to throw out (hopefully today) will shine some light on the value of draft slots. There is some very interesting data out there, esp for the WCOFF. If it is indeed true, it will cast a dark cloud over that event...one that could be very damaging if the info ever leaked out. muuhahaha

[Nag']

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Here's the data from last year, Gordon. I posted this on another thread the day after the NFFC regular season concluded:

Below are the draft positions for the 32 playoff teams and the number of playoff teams that drafted from each spot:

No. 1: 2
No. 2: 4
No. 3: 3
No. 4: 2
No. 5: 1
No. 6: 2
No. 7: 3
No. 8: 4
No. 9: 0
No. 10: 0
No. 11: 2
No. 12: 3
No. 13: 4
No. 14: 2

34% of the playoff teams came from the final four spots in the draft and 34% of the playoff teams came from the first four spots in the draft. Only spots Nos. 9 and 10 didn't field playoff teams.

Of the 16 league champions, here's where they drafted:
No. 1: 2
No. 2: 2
No. 3: 1
No. 4: 1
No. 5: 1
No. 7: 1
No. 8: 2
No. 11: 1
No. 12: 2
No. 13: 1
No. 14: 2

Any thoughts on all this? Does it prove anything? Thanks for the info, Greg. It is obvious to see from this how it is much easier to win from the higher draft slots.

:takes off Gekko-vision glasses: