NFFC Message Boards

Greg and I are now writing fantasy columns for the Associated Press (he's tackling baseball and the NFBC and I'm handling football and the NFFC). Here is my latest column which examines why I believe targeting elite QBs is the move to make on Draft Day once again this year:

http://philly.stats.com/fb/story.asp?i= ... m=&src=NFL

Tom,

For me the advantage of getting a Manning or Brady early is that you are relatively sure of how they are going to perform without a lot of injury risk so from that standpoint it is a very safe pick.

Last year Peyton averaged 26.1/PPG, Brady 25.9/PPG, and Brees 25.3/PPG. Each of these guys probably cost you a second round pick in the main event draft. But look at who you could have gotten much, much later had you waited.

Vick 32.5, Ryan Fitzpatrick, 22.7, Garrard 22.4, Cassell 21.5, Eli 22.7, Big Ben 23.6. There were a lot of great options much later in the draft or even on the waiver wire that would have put up very strong numbers at QB. (I fully realize the same could be said for any position.) But to get that stud QB you probably missed out on Greg Jennings, Mendenhall, Arian Foster, Larry Fitz, JAmal Charles, and several others.

My point is that the extra 3 points per week you get from a top level QB won't win you the league but it is a very safe way of securing points without a lot of risk. I just have a hard time looking at this mathematically and seeing where taking a QB early is better than waiting.


Wayne

Wayne, there's no question you can wait on QB or any position if you land a top player. Think of all the owners who grabbed Peyton Hillis or Darren McFadden late last season at RB, for example. So if you hit on the right players waiting sure looks good.

The problem is you have to hit on the right players. What about the people who waited on QBs last season and took Kolb and Stafford? How'd that work out for them? One of the primary reasons why I believe pursuing a stud QB is a smart move is the fact it eliminates the need to guess right later. You don't have to guess anymore. You're locked in with a stud and now you can move on. It also eliminates the need to chase after a QB2 with high upside because if you get a stud QB you should only need your backup for one week during the season. So while others in your league are chasing after their QB2 you can add talent and depth at another position.

For me, it comes down to wanting to eliminate as much risk as possible. Combine that with what I believe is another weak QB class (again) and grabbing one of the top QBs makes a ton of sense to me. Give me the stud talent and I'll take my chances against those who want to wait and are hoping to hit on the right guy later.

What about the people who waited on QBs last season and took Kolb and Stafford? How'd that work out for them?[/QB]A LOT of those guys ended up winning their league last year!!! I bet the percentage of them who picked up Michael Vick was fairly high and they did very well!


Wayne

Originally posted by Coltsfan:
quote: What about the people who waited on QBs last season and took Kolb and Stafford? How'd that work out for them?A LOT of those guys ended up winning their league last year!!! I bet the percentage of them who picked up Michael Vick was fairly high and they did very well!


Wayne [/QB][/QUOTE]Perhaps. Or if they didn't get Vick they suffered major QB issues all year long that would have been averted had they grabbed a stud QB early. Problem solved. Plus they saved a ton of FAAB money to use elsewhere the rest of the season.

[ May 11, 2011, 08:05 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Tom, what round do you see TB QB Josh Freeman going in this year? Lets say the Classic is the draft format...

SS

Originally posted by SS:
Tom, what round do you see TB QB Josh Freeman going in this year? Lets say the Classic is the draft format...

SS I could see people starting to look at him around the sixth round or so. He has legit Top 10 potential in my opinion. Not saying he'll get there but I think his talent is there; Mike Williams is a big-time talent and if Benn improves (with Winslow) Freeman will have all the weapons he needs to shine. Plus he gets you a little something extra every week with his legs. I like him a lot. I think he may be one year away from really blowing up for fantasy but if I was going to gamble on a QB this year he's the one I'd gamble on.

Didn't Tom Carbone draft Calvin, Brady and Bowe with his first 3 picks? I agree with Tom that I'd rather roll the dice on riskier/luckier position of RB in the mid-rounds. Yes, you MAY get lucky and draft a top QB late. But I believe it's more often that RBs come out of nowhere than QBs. Vick was an exception last year. As Tom said, a top QB MAY be attainable in mid-rounds, but it'd take getting pretty lucky to land this year's Vick or Big Ben or Warner in past years. But for each lucky hit like that, there are 5-10 dud QBs to avoid. Not very clear at draft time either or they wouldn't last that late.

Top-tier QBs are still the surest bet in fantasy football, IMO. Maybe it comes down to style? Some folks like to build their team with a lot of high risk/upside players, figuring that if they all breakout they'll have a good shot at going deep in the playoffs. I prefer to build a team that I'm confident has a shot to BE in the playoffs without requiring all my lucky longshots to deliver. Once there, it's a lottery anyway most of the time.

Originally posted by Coltsfan:
quote: What about the people who waited on QBs last season and took Kolb and Stafford? How'd that work out for them?A LOT of those guys ended up winning their league last year!!! I bet the percentage of them who picked up Michael Vick was fairly high and they did very well!


Wayne [/QB][/QUOTE]I had those two in WCOFF, picked up Vick, and won the league. No need to save any $$$ for later free agents because Vick was the pickup of the year. If you picked up Vick, you had a successful year on the waiver wire. period.

Same thing in NFFC. I lost both QB's and picked up Vick.

Yes, in hindsight, Vick was THE pickup of the year. But do we always hit like that on every QB we grab off waivers every year? I seriously doubt it. VERY infrequent occurrence and a roll of the dice. If Vick went back to the bench (like Reid was claiming he might when Kolb returned from injury), many would've just wasted the bulk of their free agent budget and have had nothing to show for it.

IMO, those who won their leagues w/ Vick got pretty damned lucky! In most cases, they probably waited to draft a couple flier QBs (we drafted Kolb and Stafford in one Online league) and hoped one of them would breakout. Had Reid not gone back on his initial word that Kolb would get his job back, these people (myself included) might've gotten absolute crap production all year at their fantasy QB spot.