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As we head into the final week of the NFFC regular season, it's amazing how close all of the league races are right now in the main event. Counting all 23 main event leagues and the Ultimate League, 17 titles are still up for grabs (71%).

A lot of things changed in the last week, which is why I've often said it's important for all of the numbers to play out through 13 regular season weeks before making final evaluations. Anyway, here are the facts:

** Seven of the 24 league titles have been decided after 12 weeks, leaving 17 league titles and $5,000 in each league up for grabs heading into the final week of the NFFC regular season. Two of those seven teams are also first in total points, while the others rank 2nd (2) and 3rd (3) in total points.

** 67 of 336 teams (20%) are still in the hunt for the $5,000 league prizes (counting the seven winners), with one game left in the regular season. In other words, they are one game back in the won-loss column.

** 12 of 24 first place teams lead in h2h record and total points, up from nine last week. Five other teams lead in total points and are one game out of first place in h2h records, so a best case scenario would have 17 of 24 teams winning total points and h2h records.

** Five teams are currently 11-1 and have a chance to tie the NFFC regular season record of 12-1. Glenn Schroter's SVENGALI team lost this week in the Ultimate League to fall to 11-1 and is one game ahead of Eddie Gillis and Shawn Childs at 10-2.

** It's too early to determine where the league champs drafted from, but I'll compile that data next week. For now, here are the Top 32 teams and where they drafted from:

No. 1 - 7 teams
No. 2 - 9
No. 3 - 3
No. 4 - 1
No. 5 - 1
No. 6 - 1
No. 7 - 1
No. 8 - 0
No. 9 - 2
No. 10 - 0
No. 11 - 1
No. 12 - 2
No. 13 - 1
No. 14 -3

That's 16 of the top 32 teams from the Top 2 spots (50%) and 19 of 32 from the top three spots. Six of the 32 teams (19%) came from the last three spots. Remember that the top 32 teams in total points are guaranteed a spot in the Championship Round as we allow each league's h2h champion, total points champion and the top 10% (32 of 322 teams) in total points into the Championship Round.

While those numbers above paint a vivid picture for the top three spots, if you look beyond the Top 32, only three more teams from the top three spots are in the Top 52, and obviously anything can happen this last week. So looking at the Top 52, 22 teams drafted from the 1st, 2nd or 3rd spots.

There's a lot at stake this week in the NFFC, so good luck everyone. Have fun with the numbers and let the feedback begin.

What are the most interesting league races up for grabs this week? Check these out:

** FIVE TEAMS are tied for first place in Chicago League 2 at 8-4, while two other teams are one game back at 7-5. That's half of the league still in the running for the $5,000 league prize.

** FOUR TEAMS are tied for first place in Las Vegas League 7 at 8-4, with FIVE TEAMS one game back at 7-5. That's 9 of 14 teams still in the hunt for the $5,000 league prize, with the first and second place teams in total points at 7-5.

** FOUR TEAMS are tied for first place in Las Vegas League 5 at 8-4, with the total points leader among that group.

** THREE TEAMS are tied for first place in Chicago League 3 at 8-4 and three other teams are one game back at 7-5. The total points leader is one of the teams at 8-4.

** Three teams are also tied for first place in New York League 3 at 8-4 with three other teams at 7-5. The total points leader is among the teams at 8-4.

** Three teams are tied for first place in Las Vegas League 2 at 9-3 and they are 1, 2, and 3 in their league in total points.

** Other leagues with two teams tied for first place include Chicago League 6 (9-3), New York 4 (10-2), New York 5 (9-3), and New York 6 (9-3).

It's also interesting to note that last week four of our top 5 teams overall in total points were NOT in first place in their league, whereas this week three of those 5 teams have now moved into first place, including our overall leader Jules McLean who is now tied for first at 9-3 in LV2. Still, four of our Top 10 teams in total points are NOT in first place in their leagues.

Again, just interesting numbers to chew on until we finalize everything next week. I would say these are even closer races than we've had the last two years in the NFFC. Good luck everyone.

http://forums.wcoff.com/cgi-bin/ultimat ... 1;t=003264

Anyone care to do a similar analysis after Week 13's games are complete?

This is a perfect example of why h2h needs to be a major part of this main event. Think about how many people will finish this season having had thrills all year. Even those teams who do not win next weekend will have had a fun ride. I agree that total points or some measure that allows to reward the strongest teams more should be discussed, but h2h keeps this stuff very interesting for a ton of teams...

Next weekend should be chaos...lol

Originally posted by King of Queens:
Anyone care to do a similar analysis after Week 13's games are complete? Glenn, do you think that the 12-team format favors the top two picks even more because the talent is so good coming back in rounds 2 or 3, or is it as Nag points out that 1 of 6 are making the LCG anyway and thus those figures aren't so out of line after all? It sure seems like the 14-team format makes it a bit tougher on the top end, at least tougher than the 12-team numbers attest to.

By the way, 11 weeks just isn't long enough for this kind of money! I like our 13-week regular season format with a few tweaks for the future.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by King of Queens:
Anyone care to do a similar analysis after Week 13's games are complete? Glenn, do you think that the 12-team format favors the top two picks even more because the talent is so good coming back in rounds 2 or 3, or is it as Nag points out that 1 of 6 are making the LCG anyway and thus those figures aren't so out of line after all? It sure seems like the 14-team format makes it a bit tougher on the top end, at least tougher than the 12-team numbers attest to.

By the way, 11 weeks just isn't long enough for this kind of money! I like our 13-week regular season format with a few tweaks for the future. [/QUOTE]I don't believe there's a major difference between the two contests in teams that netted a Top 3 pick. The players netted at the 2/3 turn were very similar in the two contests.

We'll wait another week to really heat up the debate, but I can almost guarantee you'll see similar numbers in the NFFC. 2005 was the same thing. If it happens again in 2007, people will really be calling for change -- and I don't just mean here.

I do agree 100% with you on the short-season. Those extra two weeks you get in the NFFC make a world of difference in separating the cream from the crap.

GREG, just some notes on the ULTIMATE league battles.We picked from the 11th spot, i remember talking to shawn from my house in R.I , WHILE he was leaving the airport in VEGAS, i wanted him to know that i wanted FWP , really bad , and if EDGERIN JAMES was there we would pass for FWP.Shawn had no promblem with this and that pick has kept us in it.Barber in the 6th round has paid off big.
Glenn picked from the 9th spot , and finally lost his 1st game this week.KING, grabbed McNABB in the 6th round , and Colston in the 18th round.
Now with both hurt, his team isnt as strong.Still if he wins this week , he gets the 5.000.00 and the number one seed, but with a loss and a win from us [OCHO CINCO or bust], we get the 1st round bye , and money.
Also the overall point leader FUPAYME,picked from the 5th spot.
IT goes to show with a good draft you can win from anywhere.

The only thing this shows me is that random draft slot allocation and KDS draft slot allocation are BOTH FAILURES. IMO, the wcoff and nffc should be embarrassed at how well the top draft slots are doing relative to the other draft slots. In a fair contest, there should be no advantage SOLELY attributed to draft slots. Two years in a row for the nffc is bad. Anyone have the #'s for the wcoff? Top 10% for each of the last 5 years by draft slot...anyone have it?

11 weeks is definitely not long enough and Chicago 1 is a good example.

For the first 8 weeks one team went unbeaten and looked to be running away with the 5K while two other teams in that league were scoring 25+ points a week more and trying to battle each other for 2nd place money. Four weeks later that same team has dropped four in a row (I beat them last week) and now are tied atop our league with the 10th overall scoring team, Curbed Enthusiasm and one other team who is 3rd in our league in scoring.

If Curbed wins next week he will rightfully win our league. He holds the key to his own destiny and I will hopefully ride his coattails to 2nd place. I trail him by 2.8 points overall and can now secure 2500 if he wins even if I cannot beat him myself by the 3 points needed. (if I didn't beat Curbed in week 8 he would already be champ - dbl edged sword there)

Either way our league is going to be exciting down to the last play just like most of them.

Originally posted by Eddiejag:
Still if he wins this week , he gets the 5.000.00 and the number one seed, but with a loss and a win from us [OCHO CINCO or bust], we get the 1st round bye , and money.Good show this week -- that's 10 in a row for you guys. We'll see what happens next weekend, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed. That bye is critical!

Oh, and the money is nice, too