Fast Facts After Week 3

[Greg Ambrosius]

We enter the bye weeks in Week 4, so NFFC teams will now have to scramble to fill holes for the next seven weeks. We'll await Rob Benetti's analysis of the first three weeks of the NFFC, but I thought it would be fun to look at the Top 25 teams today to see where they drafted. Twelve of the 14 draft slots are represented in the Top 25, with the following breakdown:

Draft slots 1-5: 6 teams
Draft slots 6-9: 9 teams
Draft slots 10-14: 10 teams

Of the Top 25 teams in total points, they drafted from these spots:

No. 1: 1 team
No. 2: 1
No. 3: 1
No. 4: 1
No. 5: 2
No. 6: 0
No. 7: 2
No. 8: 4
No. 9: 3
No. 10: 1
No. 11: 3
No. 12: 0
No. 13: 3
No. 14: 3

What does it all mean? Nothing yet, other than it will take a full season to see how 3RR impacted draft slots. But right now, most teams are feeling the effects of the first-round picks living down to their expectations and it's affecting a lot of teams. But there's still plenty of season left and we'll see how it all plays out.

Should be fun. I'll see if I can find some more fun facts to chew on until this weekend's games and look for Rob's data soon enough.

[Greg Ambrosius]

There are still 55 undefeated teams left in the NFFC's main event. They range everywhere from the 2nd overall team in total points (yes, the No. 1 team is 2-1 in his league) to the 247th team overall. Remember, this year we automatically give $5,000 to the league champion that leads after Week 13 in h2h record and total points. If two teams split those honors, we'll award $2,500 to each team and then provide a three-week playoff between those two teams for the remaining $2,500 and the title of league champion. That league playoff series is total points from Weeks 14-16 as they do NOT carry in their weekly scoring average for that playoff. Good luck all.

[Coltsfan]

Greg,

It's good to see this! I feel as if 3RR has been very successful but even if it ends up at the end of the year that the top draft spots don't do as well this year it still may not mean that 3RR wasn't effective. What I mean is that the draft was very scripted this year and if Jackson or LJ don't perform this year then those teams picking 2 and 3 may end up having bad years. We will have better data after 3 or 4 years of 3RR.


Wayne

[Greg Ambrosius]

Since the Top 36 teams in total points automatically earn a spot in the Championship Round, it makes sense going forward to refer to the Top 36 teams rather than the Top 25 teams. Here are the stats from the Top 36 teams in total points after Week 3:

Draft slots 1-5: 8 teams
Draft slots 6-9: 11 teams
Draft slots 10-14: 17 teams

Of the Top 36 teams in total points, they drafted from these spots:

No. 1: 1 team
No. 2: 2
No. 3: 1
No. 4: 1
No. 5: 3
No. 6: 0
No. 7: 3
No. 8: 4
No. 9: 4
No. 10: 1
No. 11: 4
No. 12: 3
No. 13: 6
No. 14: 3

It's interesting to note that the highest ranked team that drafted from the sixth spot -- the only spot not represented in the Top 36 -- is currently 59th overall. Is there a reason for that or is it just an early season aberration?

[ September 25, 2007, 09:44 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Coltsfan:
Greg,

It's good to see this! I feel as if 3RR has been very successful but even if it ends up at the end of the year that the top draft spots don't do as well this year it still may not mean that 3RR wasn't effective. What I mean is that the draft was very scripted this year and if Jackson or LJ don't perform this year then those teams picking 2 and 3 may end up having bad years. We will have better data after 3 or 4 years of 3RR.


Wayne Wayne, I think it's interesting already to see how teams are reacting to 3RR. In the one mid-season NFFC league we're running, some folks have set their KDS preferences with 14 at the end, while others still kept theirs with the top picks at the top of their preferences. If teams at the back-end succeed in 2007, then you'll see some owners switch their KDS preferences toward that area of the draft in 2008. But I think you'll still see a lot of folks with the desire to pick the top stars first, no matter what results we discover here in 2008.

As long as owners are getting their preferred spots and the competition is more balanced, I'll feel that 3RR has done its job. But again, let's see how the season plays out before making speculations either way.

[FIGHTINGNOLES]

It looks like based on ADP that a lot of Team 6's got either SA or Bush & then Benson or Fitz (or went RB/RB). None of those players have had big enough games yet to land a team in the top 36. (Just a guess).

[renman]

Until Steve Jackson, LT2, and Larry Johnson start performing, there will be a clear disadvantage to the teams who drafted from the top. I remember when we first started talking about BBDS or 3RR I was initially one who thought drastic change might be a "knee jerk" reaction to some epic seasons from RB's over the last few seasons. I felt that many were forgetting the years when there was not hugely dominant performances from the top picked players.

As I warmed up to it I started liking how it gave "PERCEIVED" fairness to owners who at times felt it was unfair and were unsure about investing $1300+ into an event that had too much luck involved in draft position selection. Now, I love 3rr combined with KDS because it allows for different approaches and strategies each year based on how we as owners see each seasons draft breaking down. It allows us to place value where we want. It gives that PERCEIVED sense of control and fairness to calm the complaining from owners crying foul.

[Coltsfan]

Greg,

There are a lot of options for those of us who love to play fantasy football and I just want to share with you why the NFFC is my favorite.

1. You and Tom are actively involved with the leagues.

2. You think outside the box and things like KDS and 3RR.

3. There are a lot of great people who participate in the NFFC.

4. When there is a controversy, you guys always think through your decisions and seem to make the logical choice (realizing that someone will always disagree.)

5. If Rob can $100,000 then.....


Thanks for all you do with this and I hope this is fun and profitable for you.


Wayne


Wayne

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by FIGHTINGNOLES:
It looks like based on ADP that a lot of Team 6's got either SA or Bush & then Benson or Fitz (or went RB/RB). None of those players have had big enough games yet to land a team in the top 36. (Just a guess). Let's see: Alexander was 6th on the ADP at 6.41 and Bush was right there at 7.33. At 22 and 23 are Benson and Fitzgerald. At 36 is Marques Colston, but at 37 and 38 are Antonio Gates and Adrian Peterson. The fourth round has Bulger at 50, but Plaxico at 48 and Jamal Lewis at 49. Could all the No. 6 teams missed on those early rounds or is it just a three-week aberration? I think it will eventually level out, but so far it sure looks like those early rounds had some landmines. Crazy season indeed.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Coltsfan:
Greg,

There are a lot of options for those of us who love to play fantasy football and I just want to share with you why the NFFC is my favorite.

1. You and Tom are actively involved with the leagues.

2. You think outside the box and things like KDS and 3RR.

3. There are a lot of great people who participate in the NFFC.

4. When there is a controversy, you guys always think through your decisions and seem to make the logical choice (realizing that someone will always disagree.)

5. If Rob can $100,000 then.....


Thanks for all you do with this and I hope this is fun and profitable for you.


Wayne


Wayne Thanks Wayne. Tom and I are fantasy players ourselves, so there's a reason we get so involved in these leagues. It's a BLAST for us, too. The alternative is going to a job each day that you hate and the two of us are too old for that anymore!!

Good luck the rest of the way as I think the best is yet to come.