32 Teams In 32 Days: Denver Broncos

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:14 am

The Denver Broncos are next up on our list of teams to discuss heading into the 2009 season. Denver has a new man in charge for the first time in over a decade as Josh McDaniels takes over for the fired Mike Shanahan. McDaniels created a major stir in the offseason when he alienated three of his four top players in Jay Cutler (eventually traded to Chicago), Brandon Marshall (who wants to be traded) and Tony Scheffler. With major questions at QB and on defense, it’s looking like this could be a long season in Denver. If McDaniels’ abrasive nature doesn’t change, it could be even longer.

Here's a look at the Broncos for 2009:

Projected lineups, with starters first:

QB: Kyle Orton, Chris Simms

RB: Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, Ryan Torain, Peyton Hillis

WR: Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, Chad Jackson

TE: Tony Scheffler, Daniel Graham, Richard Quinn

K: Matt Prater

Defense: 2008 29th in total yards allowed, 2 defensive TDs, 0 special teams TD

2008 Record: 8-8, Second Place
2009 Prediction: 5-11, Third Place

Current Average Draft Positions on MockDraftCentral.com using NFFC scoring system:

Brandon Marshall, 31st
Knowshon Moreno, 50th
Eddie Royal, 57th
Kyle Orton, 121st
Correll Buckhalter, 140th
Tony Scheffler, 178th
Matt Prater, 211st
Peyton Hillis 227th
LaMont Jordan, 237th
Denver D, 274th

Analysis: The Broncos foolishly traded away a star young talent in Jay Cutler in favor of the talentless duo of Kyle Orton and Chris Simms at the game’s most important position. Good luck with that. Orton had a few fleeting moments of fantasy relevance last season when he threw 10 TDs during Weeks 3-7. He then suffered an ankle injury and when he returned, the clock had struck midnight, only there was no glass slipper to try on. There was just Kyle Orton, misfiring on open receivers and playing poorly. The good news for Orton is he’s blessed with a trio of talented receivers in Marshall, Royal and Scheffler. The bad news is he’s Kyle Orton and he lacks the talent to be a quality NFL starting QB. His ADP is higher than I believe it should be given his limited skills. Good luck if you gamble with him as your backup. Don’t be surprised if Simms gets a chance to start at some point considering Orton’s lack of ability. Simms is pretty worthless himself so he’s not a better option by any means. He’s just a different shade of ugly. Outside of San Francisco and Tampa Bay, there may not be a worse collection of QBs than the Broncos have this year.

The Broncos signed somewhere in the vicinity of 327 running backs in the offseason and then, despite having massive needs on defense, used a first-round pick in the draft on another one. At least Knowshon Moreno appears to have the talent to be a quality starter. He rushed for 1,400 yards and 16 TDs last year at Georgia and he’s expected to immediately step into the starting lineup for the Broncos this season. He’s a strong runner and is also a good receiver out of the backfield so even though McDaniels has a number of other RBs at his disposal, I expect Moreno to be the lead dog all season long. He’s not being overvalued in preseason drafts so he’s someone you can get as your RB2 in the fourth round. That’s good value for him there. The backups will likely be a committee comprised of Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and maybe Ryan Torain or Peyton Hillis. Given Moreno’s skills and the volume of RBs behind him, taking one of these RBs is simply a shot in the dark – even as an End Game pick. It’s possible Buckhalter steals a few goal-line looks but at this time there’s no strong reason to pursue any of them on Draft Day.

Brandon Marshall isn’t lacking for talent. What he is lacking is maturity off the field. He’s dealt with numerous off-field incidents already in his brief career and his irritation with McDaniels has led to a demand to be traded. Thus far, the Broncos have resisted making that move but if a team (like Baltimore perhaps) makes an aggressive play during camp, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see McDaniels trade away another of his few talented players. On the field, Marshall has been a stud, having topped 100 receptions the past two years. However, that came with Cutler at QB. With Orton and Simms, Marshall’s stock takes a hit. He’s still a valuable WR2 but he lacks strong upside given his poor QB situation. Eddie Royal burst onto the scene as a rookie last season, catching 91 passes. He caught at least four passes in 13 games, including a pair of double-digit reception performances. The Broncos believe he can be their Wes Welker – a crafty and nifty possession receiver who will make catches all over the field. But like Marshall, his stock takes a hit due to the poor QBs who will be throwing him the ball. He’s worth pursuing as a WR2 but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him drop into the 20-25 range among WRs so there is some risk involved here. Jabar Gaffney followed McDaniels from New England and will be the team’s No. 3 WR. On a team with a quality QB, that would give him some mild upside. On this team, he has none barring an injury (or trade).

After spending much of the winter deliberating on whether to trade Tony Scheffler, the Broncos decided to keep him. Smart move. Scheffler has struggled with injuries and inconsistency, but he’s a legit talent at the position. He has the ability to make plays down the field and is also a strong Red Zone option. The Broncos would be smart to take more advantage of him in the passing game. But as is the case with Marshall and Royal, his fantasy value has been muted by the departure of Jay Cutler. Consider him a TE2 only. Graham and Griffin are both blockers and have no fantasy value.

Matt Prater got off to a sizzling start last season, scoring 51 points in the first five games. But his season went south after that, as he totaled only 63 in the remaining 11. He made only 60 percent of his FG attempts in the last 10 games and given the major questions the Broncos have offensively, it’s unlikely Prater will return to the level of production he displayed early last season. He’s only worth considering in 32-team leagues or ones where you have to draft someone named Matt Prater.

Remember when Denver’s defense was one of the league’s best? I remember those days. Then again, I remember when Madonna was hot too. I’m old. What can I do? The Broncos finished a pitiful 29th in total defense last season and gave up 28 points per game. They lack a strong pass rush and were terrible in terms of takeaways, recording only 17 last season. There’s no reason to even consider them on Draft Day.

That's our take on the Broncos in 2009. Who else has some insights on the Broncos for 2009? Predictions on the team's record or our projected stats? Let's see them and keep this thread current throughout the off-season. Thanks all.

[ July 30, 2009, 11:05 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:37 am

lol..... come on Tom, tell us what you really think of Orton. Do you really believe he can be a top 10 FF QB?
Denver is a good example of FF not necessarily equating to "real" football. Denver will probably struggle to win 5 or 6 games this year and won't be relevent in the NFL playoffs, even though they're in a relatively weak division. But for FF purposes because they have a weak defense and will be playing from behind a good part of the season a number of their players will probably be very relevant. Thank the FF Gods for ppr!!!

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:04 am

I don't like Kyle Orton. There I said it.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:07 am

Orton was booed by Bronco fans during last night's scrimmage due to his poor play. I think everyone better get used to that - the boos and the poor play.

Team Canada · Post by **Team Canada** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 7:09 am

"He’s only worth considering in 32-team leagues or ones where you have to draft someone named Matt Prater."

That is one of the funniest fantasy football one liners ever

Thanks for the laugh...

Ry's Guys · Post by **Ry's Guys** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 9:16 am

As a Bears STH all I can say is I hope you fixed your running game Denver. Orton was good for a 4-5 game stretch last year, but he's immobile and can NOT throw a deep ball to save his life. Against Green Bay at home on Monday night last year he threw up a couple of wounded ducks to Hester that got called for pass interference because Hester had to try to get back to the ball. They were 10 yards underthrown! I swear the huddle sounded something like this; Orton: O.k. Devin, you run as fast as you can and I'll throw it up in the air, when you see the football, stop running and start running back to the ball and we're sure to get a penalty! It was the only way we had a pass play over 30 yards with Orton all year. Good luck to Marshall and Royal this year! Scheffler may benefit more than the WR's I think.

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:50 am

I'm really not sure what to think about Orton. He has so much talent as WR that he should have open pass targets this year. It will be interesting to see what he does. I think he has some upside for DC's just because of his talented WR's and the bad defense.

Will Scheffler be the guy in Denver at TE this year?

Wayne

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:01 pm

Rodgers>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Orton

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:38 pm

Comparing Rodgers to Orton is like comparing Ruth's Chris to McDonald's! :rolleyes: