Schedule Analysis: Why you DO NOT take A. Green at #3

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:02 am

For those of you dealing with the “who do I take at #3 dilemma” (assuming LT and Holmes go 1-2 in some order) you should note that if the sample schedule on the site holds true then you will be playing team #1 in week 9. The byes for week 9 are Atl, GB, Jak and Ten.

So, taking A.Green likely amounts to a match-up against the LT-Holmes team with no Green in the line-up.

It’s hard to analyze the remaining match-ups because of all the uncertainty involved, but I for one will include a schedule factor at least for my first five rounds.

[ August 31, 2004, 02:05 PM: Message edited by: nnoy ]

lichtman · Post by **lichtman** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:09 am

I agree completely. If you pick Green at #3 (especially in New York League #6), you are practically throwing the season in the trashcan.

Dave (New York League 6, Pick #4)

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:14 am

Actually, given that freakish things can happen all the time, I would think everyone should be competing for 'most points' in the league as that is the overall contest and the only guaranteed league championship game portion. Records can be up or down 2-3 wins per team for outlandish events like Dave's TE got 4 TD's that week or Bob's Kicker nailed 6 Field Goals. To take a lesser producing player and give up the (depends on your projections) 10-40 pts. to avoid a particular matchup seems foolish.

Now, I'm not saying I have Ahman as my #3 player, nor am I saying there's a big spread between my #3 and #4 player... just thaty our logic wouldn't convince me to change my preferences..

Dave

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:47 am

Dvy,

Point well taken. However, you should balance the potential disadvantage on a game-by-game basis.

If the Holmes – LT teams gets 24 points and you have Deuece/Portis/Alexander they likely gain a 3 to 4 point advantage. However, if Green is on the bye and you play your 3rd Rb for him odds are that advantage jumps to the 15 to 16 point range.

I know you cannot assume everyone plays at or near their average for every game, but to go into a match-up with an expected gap of 15 to 16 points thanks to the bye week is anything but optimal and should be avoided if possible.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:57 am

Yes, I've spent a long time analyzing that problem at 3. It seems like the critical decision of the draft. It's so fortunate that those of us drafting at 12 in the Main Event and at 11 in the Draft Masters don't have to deal with that.

Boy are we lucky.

TradeStar28 · Post by **TradeStar28** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:00 am

I have played in the other high-stake contest for the past two years and we made the league championship game both years. We didnt get to the big game with the best record...it was from having the most points in the league that earned us a chance.

My point is - I dont care or cannot control Wins versus Losses....But I will be drafting a team that will put up the most points over the course of 13 weeks to get to the big dance weeks of 14-16.

BTW- Ahman has a bad knee anyway....so taking him at #3 is a risk in itself.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:04 am

[ August 31, 2004, 04:09 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

Diesel · Post by **Diesel** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:19 am

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
Yes, I've spent a long time analyzing that problem at 3. It seems like the critical decision of the draft. It's so fortunate that those of us drafting at 12 in the Main Event and at 11 in the Draft Masters don't have to deal with that.

Boy are we lucky. It could be worse. You could have gotten 13.

Jersey Dawg · Post by **Jersey Dawg** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 12:24 pm

I think you have to go for most points. In a league rewarding points for receptions Green is a solid pick #3. If you start to analyze who you play in what weeks you are going to go nuts. I can assure you that many leagues playing the championship week will not have the 2 teams with the best records playing each other. The 3rd, 4th 5th or even 6th best record will be in that game while the second best record is watching the game. This is all about the points.

Pete

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 1:20 pm

It's not that Nnoy's point is without merit - he's right in some ways that if you were torn to choose between 1 and 1A and the players were essentially even this is a great way to make decisions.

I'll be analzying the opportunities here - I've never been in a league like this where the schedule was a pre-draft factor.

Greg - any notion to randomize the schedule ?

Dave