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I've given the random draft slot selection process for fantasy football a lot of thought and there is no question in my mind that the top picks have ALWAYS been the most desired through the last 2+ decades. I can't remember a time when owners have said, "damn, if I could just get that 7th pick I know I can win this whole thing." It just doesn't happen.

As the only 14-team national fantasy football contest in the industry, we have had to prove to our participants that they can win from anywhere in the draft and it has been proven through the last three years that you can win from anywhere in the draft. Our first overall champion won from the 13th spot in 2004 and several Top 5 finishers last year drafted from the 4th and 9th spots. But we realized that owners wanted more control in their draft selections, so we implemented the Kentucky Derby Style system in 2006 to allow owners to choose their favorite draft spots AFTER we randomly selected the leagues.

Now it might be time for one more step towards equality. I'm seriously considering this 3rd Round Reversal (3RR) format for 2007 satellite leagues and maybe more. Basically, the only change that would be presented would be to reverse the draft order in the third round after going serpentine for the first two rounds and then going serpentine from rounds 4 through 18. Teamed with KDS, this would give owners a lot to evaluate during the off-season and would create some strategy in picking out their desired draft spots.

I also believe it would equalize more of the later picks and not seriously harm any draft spot at all. I want to look into all of the facts first, but this is the best alternative to date as BBDS with points or FAAB isn't ideal for an overall contest. They are good for private individual leagues, but not for an overall contest.

There is NO QUESTION that next year LT, LJ and Alexander will be the desired top three picks. Nothing the rest of this year will change that. But do you know what: EVERY year in fantasy football there are 2-3 standout players who seem to tip the scales in the favor of those drafting early. It was Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes and others in the past and now it's LT and LJ. It happens in football moreso than it does in any other fantasy sport.

Implementing 3RR/KDS would be easy and educating newbies and NFFC veterans would be a chore that Tom and I could handle. It has some merits, but I'd like to hear some input first and then implement some mock drafts in the next few weeks to see how it goes. It definitely could create a buzz for the NFFC and give fantasy owners more say in their draft spots, while creating a cottage industry of strategy during the off-season to determine whether 1,2,3 is best or 12, 13, 14 is best.

Here would be the format for 2007:

Round 1: 1-14
Round 2: 14-1
Round 3: 14-1
Round 4: 1-14
Round 5: 14-1
Round 6: 1-14
Round 7: 14-1
Round 8: 1-14
Round 9: 14-1
Round 10: 1-14
Round 11: 14-1
Round 12: 1-14
Round 13: 14-1
Round 14: 1-14
Round 15: 14-1
Round 16: 1-14
Round 17: 14-1
Round 18: 1-14

Let's hear the feedback, good and bad and determine if this is an idea just for some satellite leagues in 2007 or more. My ears are open for feedback.

2006 ADP under existing serpentine system:

1. LJ, Owens, Wayne, Evans, Heap
2. LT2, Chambers, Gates, Galloway, Brady
3. SA, Chester, Palmer, DJax, Horn
4. Tiki, R.Moss, Ry.Williams, A.Johnson, McAllister
5. Brown, Dunn, J.Jones, F.Taylor, McNabb
6. SJax, K.Jones, Droughns, T.Bell, Hasselbeck
7. Jordan, Bush, Foster, Shockey, R.Smith
8. Rudi, Boldin, Gore, J.Walker, Gonzalez
9. E.James, Harrison, Driver, Rhodes, T.Glenn
10. C.Williams, Portis, Ward, A.Green, Addai
11. C.Johnson, Westbrook, Burress, M.Bell, E.Manning
12. S.Smith, Fitzgerald, Dillon, Mason, Maroney
13. McGahee, Holt, J.Lewis, Houshmandzadeh, Lundy
14. Parker, P.Manning, S.Moss, T.Jones, Stallworth


2006 ADP using 3RR (reverse beginning Round 3):

1. LJ, Owens, S.Moss, T.Jones, Stallworth
2. LT2, Chambers, J.Lewis, Houshmandzadeh, Lundy
3. SA, Chester, Dillon, Mason, Maroney
4. Tiki, R.Moss, Burress, M.Bell, E.Manning
5. Brown, Dunn, Ward, A.Green, Addai
6. SJax, K.Jones, Driver, Rhodes, T.Glenn
7. Jordan, Bush, Gore, J.Walker, Gonzalez
8. Rudi, Boldin, Foster, Shockey, R.Smith
9. E.James, Harrison, Droughns, T.Bell, Hasselbeck
10. C.Williams, Portis, J.Jones, F.Taylor, McNabb
11. C.Johnson, Westbrook, Ry.Williams, A.Johnson, McAllister
12. S.Smith, Fitzgerald, Palmer, DJax, Horn
13. McGahee, Holt, Gates, Galloway, Brady
14. Parker, P.Manning, Wayne, Evans, Heap

Beginning the reverse in the 5th round would provide only a marginal difference. 3rd round makes more sense, but perhaps another switch later on (9th round or 11th round) back to the original 1-14 would even things off a bit. The downside there is that you are overcomplicating things.

Ted's Cracked Head had an excellent graph on the success of picks 5 and 6 for 2004 and 2005. Only 2 teams drafting from those spots in 2 years ended up in the top 10%. (Pick 4 is having similar unsuccess in 06 according to TCH, hopefully he can replicate the charts in this thread). Now we are taking away pick 3.05 and giving it 3.10. Same example goes for pick 4. I LIKE the idea of equalizing 1,2,3 and 12,13,14 but it doesnt seem like a win-win across the board. Maybe 5RR has some merit ?

Q

Originally posted by King of Queens:
2006 ADP using 3RR (reverse beginning Round 3):

1. LJ, Owens, S.Moss, T.Jones, Stallworth
2. LT2, Chambers, J.Lewis, Houshmandzadeh, Lundy
3. SA, Chester, Dillon, Mason, Maroney
4. Tiki, R.Moss, Burress, M.Bell, E.Manning
5. Brown, Dunn, Ward, A.Green, Addai
6. SJax, K.Jones, Driver, Rhodes, T.Glenn
7. Jordan, Bush, Gore, J.Walker, Gonzalez
8. Rudi, Boldin, Foster, Shockey, R.Smith
9. E.James, Harrison, Droughns, T.Bell, Hasselbeck
10. C.Williams, Portis, J.Jones, F.Taylor, McNabb
11. C.Johnson, Westbrook, Ry.Williams, A.Johnson, McAllister
12. S.Smith, Fitzgerald, Palmer, DJax, Horn
13. McGahee, Holt, Gates, Galloway, Brady
14. Parker, P.Manning, Wayne, Evans, Heap
Now that's good analysis. There is NO QUESTION that 12, 13 and 14 have been helped greatly by the 3RR and yet they do lose some value in the fourth round. It certainly makes those final draft slots more desireable.

Have we hurt 1-3 too much? Probably not. 7-8 obviously isn't affected and 9, 10 and 11 are helped a little. Thoughts on 4 through 6??

One RR should do. Re-reversing in 9 or 11 doesn't do a whole lot for me, but I've been wrong before.

Now, under this scenario, which draft spot would you want?? And is it fair??

Greg,

In a year like this one, no changes would offset the advantage held by the top three. However, next year could be a completely different story. Instead of three top RBs, there may be 6 or 7. I guess the pick most disadvantaged by 3rr might be pick 8. Think about being in this position with 7 top players....ouch! But, even then, position 8 is ever so slightly improved by 3rr. It seems that regardless of the senerio, 3rr levels the field a bit. I am sold on it and hope to see it next year.

Take care and thanks for asking!

Any switch before round 9 would be nuts.
I think to completely change the game that needs a small tweak is really overreacting.

If there is a switch, do it at the break.
How simple is that?

Q,

Thanks for looking at the facts (rare here) and no I will not be posting them again.

Originally posted by SNAKE:
...have a great time using this data for next year and beyond comrades...quite simply, the chart WON'T work and your spewed data/info will be GREATLY compromised here...and while you're at it, SNAKE would like to recommend a stock that has a price target of 50 and is trading at 49.73 currently but was at 31.29 only two months ago...you seem like the type to be interested in this type of value, so how many shares would suffice?...moral of the story: do NOT settle for getting on the elevator on the 89th floor for the ride up to floor 90 when you can get on at the 37th floor just as easily...do NOT compromise and settle for second best as the resources of all the fellow FF fighting comrades would be better served debating the virtues of BBDS and in which ways to make it more applicable here as oppossed to KDS/3RR ISHO...SNAKE SNAKES ! the writing is on the wall. Like you like to summarize:

BBDS +
Main Event =
-----------
RIP


Q