One Key To Winning A Title: Find The Right WR3

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:44 am

Tom and I are each writing a weekly NFFC column and offering them to fantasy web sites this year as free content. We enjoyed posting articles on Rotoworld.com and they seemed to grab the interest of die-hard players who eventually joined the NFFC. This is our promo for the industry.

Here is this week's column from yours truly. Let me know if you agree with my WR3 thoughts:

Fantasy football leagues are so competitive these days that finding one little advantage over your competitors could be the difference between cashing in 2009 or not. Everyone seems to have the same information these days, the same projections and the same cheat sheets. So where is that difference maker we're all talking about?

Well, if you compete in point per reception leagues - and who doesn't, right? - then the key could be found in the least likely area: WR3. That's right, the key to winning this year's championship may occur somewhere around Round 7, where finding this year's wide receiver gem may be located.

In the National Fantasy Football Championship last year, both of our overall champions were able to land three good wide receivers and that was critical in both owners winning the $100,000 grand prizes. Tom Yates of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania went to the extreme in accomplishing this in our 14-team NFFC Classic format, using his first three picks from the 14th spot on Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith (we use Third Round Reversal, so Smith was the first pick of the third round). Yates correctly nailed Thomas Jones and Chris Johnson in the fourth and fifth rounds, but his three wideouts were the key to his success.

In our 12-team NFFC Primetime format, Dave Gerczak of Appleton, Wisconsin also dominated his competition with a receiving core of Marshall, Smith and Dwayne Bowe. Nabbing DeAngelo Williams in the seventh round was also crucial, but the consistent play out of all three wideouts was critical in Gerczak's success.

If you look at last year's choices at WR3, you can see how these two owners gained such an edge among their competitors. This area of the draft was a landmine of bad options, some of which helped take their fantasy teams down. From last year's ADP, here were the WR picks from 29-42:

29. Nate Burleson
30. Santana Moss
31. Patrick Crayton
32. Derrick Mason
33. Joey Galloway
34. Bernard Berrian
35. Anthony Gonzalez
36. Vincent Jackson
37. Ted Ginn Jr.
38. Reggie Brown
39. DeSean Jackson
40. Kevin Walter
41. Javon Walker
42. Donte Stallworth

Only four of these 14 picks scored over 200 points in the NFFC, which is an average of 12.5 points per game over 16 games: Moss, Mason, Jackson and Walter. Five WR3 pickups were no factor at all: Burleson (picked 66th overall), Galloway, Brown, Walker and Stallworth. Just looking at this data, owners who went after three running backs early paid for it later if they thought finding their third wideout was going to be easy. Nothing was easy here, unless you correctly pegged Jackson or Walter. And in the later rounds or via free agency, Antonio Bryant (251 points), Eddie Royal (231.9) and Lance Moore (230.8) were golden, but finding them among the next 40+ wideouts was not easy.

So what looks good at WR3 this year? It's the same hodgepodge of iffys and the fantasy owners who find the right ones will gain the greatest advantage. This position can net you +6-8 points per week and that could be the difference in a title and a non-money finish.

According to our current ADPs from NFFC pay leagues, here are the wideouts from 29-42:

29. Bernard Berrian
30. Lance Moore
31. Kevin Walter
32. Jerricho Cotchery
33. Laveranues Coles
34. Donald Driver
35. Torry Holt
36. Michael Crabtree
37. Steve Breaston
38. Devin Hester
39. Ted Ginn Jr.
40. Domenik Hixon
41. Steve Smith
42. Miles Austin

There are LOTS of question marks among that group. Moore looks like the most enticing if he can fully return from offseason shoulder surgery. Coles could quietly be a very good WR2 in Cincinnati. Holt could revive his career in Jacksonville, but he looked like he hit the same wall that Marvin Harrison hit a year ago. Cotchery could be the best and only option in New York.

Outside of this interesting group, the sleepers could be Mark Clayton in Baltimore if Derrick Mason doesn't return, Percy Harvin as a Wildcat wonder in Minnesota, Josh Morgan as the new No. 1 receiver in San Francisco, Nate Washington as the new deep threat in Tennessee, Earl Bennett as Jay Cutler's favorite target in Chicago and even Nate Burleson in Seattle if he recovers from knee surgery.

None of them are guaranteed locks, but the fantasy owner who wins the WR3 battle and has a strong corps of talent around that spot will win more leagues than not in 2009. I guarantee that.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:20 am

I'm not sure your premise ties in with your examples. It's kind of apples and oranges. Both Tom and Dave took Quality WR's early and then hit on what turned out to be quality RB's later. Neither had to depend on any of the "crappy" WR choices that you're calling WR 3's.
The argument for both Tom and Dave would be just the opposite of what you laid out. DON'T have your FF success depend on a normal WR 3, get your WR's early and take advantage of the RB depth in the middle rounds. Of course like Tom and Dave, you better select the right RB's in those rounds because most of RB's in those rounds will turn out to be "clunkers".
And you're probably missing the most important part of Tom and Dave's success...Make sure you draft the players that can get you to the championship round and those players must also be the "hot" players during weeks 14-16. And of course the astute FF player, like Tom and Dave, will be able to foresee what's going to happen in December while drafting in late August/Early Sept.
Maybe all that can be the basis for next week's article. "Tom and Dave's Crystal Ball"
Just ribbing you.....nice article.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:30 am

Exactly Rich. Tom and Dave each hit on the right RBs, but they chose a strategy that didn't rely on these WR3 choices, while many others thought they could easily find a WR3 later to go with their top backs. It was a strategy that didn't work for most owners last year.

I'm just pointing out that teams that can earn 6-8 more points per week from their WR3 spot and still find the right gems at RB could be at a big advantage. Lord knows I'm the worst example of this as I always wait too long to land a WR3, but in looking at the options available this year after the Top 20-25 WRs I turn my attention to the TEs. It's all a crapshoot at WR after the Top 25.

Let's see what the WR3 spot produces for our teams at season's end. Hopefully it's better than what it produced in most cases last year.

Roger · Post by **Roger** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:26 am

Tom,

Great article.

Who would you target as a WR3 in this group, or would you just target your 3 WR's earlier and avoid this problem altogether?

Roger · Post by **Roger** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:27 am

Sorry, reading comp. skills are off today. Question directed to Greg.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:38 am

Originally posted by Trust In Bill:
Tom,

Great article.

Who would you target as a WR3 in this group, or would you just target your 3 WR's earlier and avoid this problem altogether? I think the lesson from the article might be to target your third wide receiver earlier. But that's easier said than done and nobody waits longer than me, so who am I to give this advice?

I have taken Breaston and Hixon many times as my WR3 and been criticized for doing so. Earlier I thought Crabtree could be that guy, but the contract problems could delay his progression and honestly I think Josh Morgan may outperform him when all is said and done.

Lance Moore is the play if he's healthy. Some think Holt is the play, but I had him last year and he just looked OLD. I hope he proves me wrong.

As for WR4, I'm real interested in Percy Harvin, Josh Morgan, Nate Washington and even Brian Robiskie. Chris Henry, too, although I doubt I could pull the trigger there. James Jones is a waaaaaaaaaay deep sleeper if he has a good camp, can win the WR3 spot for the Packers and stays healthy. He has great hands.

Tom can reply on this too. I'm sure his opinions on the WR3 list are a bit different than mine. Thanks Bill and good luck.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 8:34 am

Of the WRs between 29 and 42, the only ones who interest me strongly are:

30. Lance Moore
31. Kevin Walter
33. Laveranues Coles
34. Donald Driver

Those are the only ones I'd feel real comfortable with as my WR3. I think Berrian could be decent but in a PPR format I worry about his lack of receptions. I think Cotchery's due for a decline without Favre and Coles around. I like Ginn, Hixon and Smith as WR4s - especially Smith in a PPR league. It's possible one or more of them could be a solid WR3 but gambling on that is too rich for my blood. So I'd rather have three WRs I really like and then hope to grab one or more of those guys later. Greg Camarillo is another End Game pick who I'm all over right now. If he's healthy, he should be a WR3 in PPR leagues. He was money last year before getting hurt.

Overall, I agree with Greg that it's better to target your top three WRs among the first 25 picks if you can. That way, you're not reaching and hoping. Sure, one of those 25 guys could bust but they're ranked higher for a reason. I think having three good WRs is a must in a PPR league so I'd rather go with guys I trust than feel the need to gamble on someone in a key role.

kapefear · Post by **kapefear** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:03 am

Guys great article and strong views and points..Me personally having had this reciever last year and watching him develop,I think that DEVIN HESTER is a no brainer.He was developing very nicely,then Orton went down.Now with the addition of Cutler he should never get under thrown and really could have some MONSTER td catches....

renman · Post by **renman** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:11 am

Greg,

NOW THATS THE KIND OF FOOTBALL TALK I MISS! Great stuff. That is how hard core football discussions get sparked. I really enjoyed that read. With so many industry people pushing for the WR early strategy I wonder if now is the time to zag when everyone else is zigging.