One Key To Winning A Title: Find The Right WR3
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:44 am
Tom and I are each writing a weekly NFFC column and offering them to fantasy web sites this year as free content. We enjoyed posting articles on Rotoworld.com and they seemed to grab the interest of die-hard players who eventually joined the NFFC. This is our promo for the industry.
Here is this week's column from yours truly. Let me know if you agree with my WR3 thoughts:
Fantasy football leagues are so competitive these days that finding one little advantage over your competitors could be the difference between cashing in 2009 or not. Everyone seems to have the same information these days, the same projections and the same cheat sheets. So where is that difference maker we're all talking about?
Well, if you compete in point per reception leagues - and who doesn't, right? - then the key could be found in the least likely area: WR3. That's right, the key to winning this year's championship may occur somewhere around Round 7, where finding this year's wide receiver gem may be located.
In the National Fantasy Football Championship last year, both of our overall champions were able to land three good wide receivers and that was critical in both owners winning the $100,000 grand prizes. Tom Yates of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania went to the extreme in accomplishing this in our 14-team NFFC Classic format, using his first three picks from the 14th spot on Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith (we use Third Round Reversal, so Smith was the first pick of the third round). Yates correctly nailed Thomas Jones and Chris Johnson in the fourth and fifth rounds, but his three wideouts were the key to his success.
In our 12-team NFFC Primetime format, Dave Gerczak of Appleton, Wisconsin also dominated his competition with a receiving core of Marshall, Smith and Dwayne Bowe. Nabbing DeAngelo Williams in the seventh round was also crucial, but the consistent play out of all three wideouts was critical in Gerczak's success.
If you look at last year's choices at WR3, you can see how these two owners gained such an edge among their competitors. This area of the draft was a landmine of bad options, some of which helped take their fantasy teams down. From last year's ADP, here were the WR picks from 29-42:
29. Nate Burleson
30. Santana Moss
31. Patrick Crayton
32. Derrick Mason
33. Joey Galloway
34. Bernard Berrian
35. Anthony Gonzalez
36. Vincent Jackson
37. Ted Ginn Jr.
38. Reggie Brown
39. DeSean Jackson
40. Kevin Walter
41. Javon Walker
42. Donte Stallworth
Only four of these 14 picks scored over 200 points in the NFFC, which is an average of 12.5 points per game over 16 games: Moss, Mason, Jackson and Walter. Five WR3 pickups were no factor at all: Burleson (picked 66th overall), Galloway, Brown, Walker and Stallworth. Just looking at this data, owners who went after three running backs early paid for it later if they thought finding their third wideout was going to be easy. Nothing was easy here, unless you correctly pegged Jackson or Walter. And in the later rounds or via free agency, Antonio Bryant (251 points), Eddie Royal (231.9) and Lance Moore (230.8) were golden, but finding them among the next 40+ wideouts was not easy.
So what looks good at WR3 this year? It's the same hodgepodge of iffys and the fantasy owners who find the right ones will gain the greatest advantage. This position can net you +6-8 points per week and that could be the difference in a title and a non-money finish.
According to our current ADPs from NFFC pay leagues, here are the wideouts from 29-42:
29. Bernard Berrian
30. Lance Moore
31. Kevin Walter
32. Jerricho Cotchery
33. Laveranues Coles
34. Donald Driver
35. Torry Holt
36. Michael Crabtree
37. Steve Breaston
38. Devin Hester
39. Ted Ginn Jr.
40. Domenik Hixon
41. Steve Smith
42. Miles Austin
There are LOTS of question marks among that group. Moore looks like the most enticing if he can fully return from offseason shoulder surgery. Coles could quietly be a very good WR2 in Cincinnati. Holt could revive his career in Jacksonville, but he looked like he hit the same wall that Marvin Harrison hit a year ago. Cotchery could be the best and only option in New York.
Outside of this interesting group, the sleepers could be Mark Clayton in Baltimore if Derrick Mason doesn't return, Percy Harvin as a Wildcat wonder in Minnesota, Josh Morgan as the new No. 1 receiver in San Francisco, Nate Washington as the new deep threat in Tennessee, Earl Bennett as Jay Cutler's favorite target in Chicago and even Nate Burleson in Seattle if he recovers from knee surgery.
None of them are guaranteed locks, but the fantasy owner who wins the WR3 battle and has a strong corps of talent around that spot will win more leagues than not in 2009. I guarantee that.
Here is this week's column from yours truly. Let me know if you agree with my WR3 thoughts:
Fantasy football leagues are so competitive these days that finding one little advantage over your competitors could be the difference between cashing in 2009 or not. Everyone seems to have the same information these days, the same projections and the same cheat sheets. So where is that difference maker we're all talking about?
Well, if you compete in point per reception leagues - and who doesn't, right? - then the key could be found in the least likely area: WR3. That's right, the key to winning this year's championship may occur somewhere around Round 7, where finding this year's wide receiver gem may be located.
In the National Fantasy Football Championship last year, both of our overall champions were able to land three good wide receivers and that was critical in both owners winning the $100,000 grand prizes. Tom Yates of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania went to the extreme in accomplishing this in our 14-team NFFC Classic format, using his first three picks from the 14th spot on Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith (we use Third Round Reversal, so Smith was the first pick of the third round). Yates correctly nailed Thomas Jones and Chris Johnson in the fourth and fifth rounds, but his three wideouts were the key to his success.
In our 12-team NFFC Primetime format, Dave Gerczak of Appleton, Wisconsin also dominated his competition with a receiving core of Marshall, Smith and Dwayne Bowe. Nabbing DeAngelo Williams in the seventh round was also crucial, but the consistent play out of all three wideouts was critical in Gerczak's success.
If you look at last year's choices at WR3, you can see how these two owners gained such an edge among their competitors. This area of the draft was a landmine of bad options, some of which helped take their fantasy teams down. From last year's ADP, here were the WR picks from 29-42:
29. Nate Burleson
30. Santana Moss
31. Patrick Crayton
32. Derrick Mason
33. Joey Galloway
34. Bernard Berrian
35. Anthony Gonzalez
36. Vincent Jackson
37. Ted Ginn Jr.
38. Reggie Brown
39. DeSean Jackson
40. Kevin Walter
41. Javon Walker
42. Donte Stallworth
Only four of these 14 picks scored over 200 points in the NFFC, which is an average of 12.5 points per game over 16 games: Moss, Mason, Jackson and Walter. Five WR3 pickups were no factor at all: Burleson (picked 66th overall), Galloway, Brown, Walker and Stallworth. Just looking at this data, owners who went after three running backs early paid for it later if they thought finding their third wideout was going to be easy. Nothing was easy here, unless you correctly pegged Jackson or Walter. And in the later rounds or via free agency, Antonio Bryant (251 points), Eddie Royal (231.9) and Lance Moore (230.8) were golden, but finding them among the next 40+ wideouts was not easy.
So what looks good at WR3 this year? It's the same hodgepodge of iffys and the fantasy owners who find the right ones will gain the greatest advantage. This position can net you +6-8 points per week and that could be the difference in a title and a non-money finish.
According to our current ADPs from NFFC pay leagues, here are the wideouts from 29-42:
29. Bernard Berrian
30. Lance Moore
31. Kevin Walter
32. Jerricho Cotchery
33. Laveranues Coles
34. Donald Driver
35. Torry Holt
36. Michael Crabtree
37. Steve Breaston
38. Devin Hester
39. Ted Ginn Jr.
40. Domenik Hixon
41. Steve Smith
42. Miles Austin
There are LOTS of question marks among that group. Moore looks like the most enticing if he can fully return from offseason shoulder surgery. Coles could quietly be a very good WR2 in Cincinnati. Holt could revive his career in Jacksonville, but he looked like he hit the same wall that Marvin Harrison hit a year ago. Cotchery could be the best and only option in New York.
Outside of this interesting group, the sleepers could be Mark Clayton in Baltimore if Derrick Mason doesn't return, Percy Harvin as a Wildcat wonder in Minnesota, Josh Morgan as the new No. 1 receiver in San Francisco, Nate Washington as the new deep threat in Tennessee, Earl Bennett as Jay Cutler's favorite target in Chicago and even Nate Burleson in Seattle if he recovers from knee surgery.
None of them are guaranteed locks, but the fantasy owner who wins the WR3 battle and has a strong corps of talent around that spot will win more leagues than not in 2009. I guarantee that.