Skill/Luck......continuing on for a while?
Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:25 am
I posted this on Bob Squad's original "skill/luck" debate also, but that thread has unfortunately turned into a lot of people having "one sentence" conversations (I'm guilty of that also". I just started this thread to leave out the arguing, personal battles, and where people can just give their "theory" about the whole thing.
I give Bob Squad FULL credit for starting all this.
I think the bottom line is that we all want to think we are "skilled".
When we lose to a team we feel we should of beat (I'm strictly talking H2H here), we tend to say it is "luck". Luck is generally the EASY way to say "that person is not as good as I (think I) am". It eases the pain of realizing we may not be as good as we say we think we are.
It especially stings when we have a high score and lose 154 - 160, while the rest of the league scored less than our 154.
What we tend to often forget about "luck" is that when we win a game 94 - 88, and the rest of the league scored more than our 94, we say "well we were a better team anyway". Our egos don't want to realize that we just had "good luck", because that means maybe we aren't as "skilled" as we really think we are (tough for our egos to handle!)
I agree 100% that we have ZERO control over who we play each week. But based on the info of the top 15 lifetime standings leaders (posted below), I think OVER TIME, that the data will show that the teams who SCORE THE MOST POINTS will end up with the best H2H records........
Here are the current lifetime standings NFFC Classic leaders (through week 8 of the 2009 season). It is a total of 73 games played, and next to each person's record, I put there overall record for each individual year since 2004. Since there were 13 games each season (and 8 thus far) if the team had a winning season they get a win, and a losing season counts as a loss ( a total of 5 seasons and through week 8 of this season). Only one team in the top 15 (Rick Hart) is 4-4 (a tie) this far this season. Here are the results.....
1. Billy Wasosky (52-21) (6-0)
2. Derek Anderson/Kyle Pope (40-33) (4-2)
3. Glenn Schroter (44-29) (5-1)
4. Mark Srebro (40-33) (4-2)
5. Rick Hart (37-36) (4-1-1)
6. Carlos Perez (41-32) (4-2)
7. Jeff Clampitt (47-26) (5-1)
8. Michael Edelman (35-38) (3-3)
9. James Mack (48-25) (6-0)
10. Phillip McDonald (41-32) (3-3)
11. Ken Magner (45-28) (5-1)
12. Eric Lindquist (32-41) (2-4)
13. Alex Kaganovsky (45-28) (5-1)
14. Don Jagoda (41-32) (4-2)
15. Richard Duewel (36-37) (3-3)
- 12 of the top 15 (80%) lifetime scoring leaders have won more GAMES than they lost in the 73 total games played.
- 11 of the top 15 (73%) lifetime scoring leaders have had more winning SEASONS than losing seasons in the 5 completed and 1 partial season.
Of course since weeks 14-16 ARE counted in the lifetime point standings, this data DOES NOT include 15 games that have a bearing on the total points, but obviously cannot be counted in that record.
I am going to try and compare this data later.
Are there going to be exceptions....ABSOLUTELY! Exceptions/luck happens around us EVERY day. Is it 100% guaranteed that I will make it to work safely EVERY day.....NO. The percentage is high, but NOTHING is 100%. Everyone knows that H2H is less reliable than points scored in determining the best teams, but as a game operator, H2H IS needed. Lance's post summed it up well, as he said each week you go to battle against one other team.
I also believe the NFFC does the BEST job of any contest out there, in allowing the teams who score well MULTIPLE opportunities to win $$$ over "blindly" just giving it to the H2H team.
As for the 3 week playoff, you simply need to get "hot" at the right time. I'm OK with that. Personally, my teams have not fared well in that 3 week span over the last 5 years, but I know I have ZERO chance of winning the 100K if I don't make it to the championship round. Goal one EVERY year is to get there. The more I get there, the more opportunities I have to "get hot" at the right time, and bring home some cash!
[ November 07, 2009, 12:31 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]
I give Bob Squad FULL credit for starting all this.
I think the bottom line is that we all want to think we are "skilled".
When we lose to a team we feel we should of beat (I'm strictly talking H2H here), we tend to say it is "luck". Luck is generally the EASY way to say "that person is not as good as I (think I) am". It eases the pain of realizing we may not be as good as we say we think we are.
It especially stings when we have a high score and lose 154 - 160, while the rest of the league scored less than our 154.
What we tend to often forget about "luck" is that when we win a game 94 - 88, and the rest of the league scored more than our 94, we say "well we were a better team anyway". Our egos don't want to realize that we just had "good luck", because that means maybe we aren't as "skilled" as we really think we are (tough for our egos to handle!)
I agree 100% that we have ZERO control over who we play each week. But based on the info of the top 15 lifetime standings leaders (posted below), I think OVER TIME, that the data will show that the teams who SCORE THE MOST POINTS will end up with the best H2H records........
Here are the current lifetime standings NFFC Classic leaders (through week 8 of the 2009 season). It is a total of 73 games played, and next to each person's record, I put there overall record for each individual year since 2004. Since there were 13 games each season (and 8 thus far) if the team had a winning season they get a win, and a losing season counts as a loss ( a total of 5 seasons and through week 8 of this season). Only one team in the top 15 (Rick Hart) is 4-4 (a tie) this far this season. Here are the results.....
1. Billy Wasosky (52-21) (6-0)
2. Derek Anderson/Kyle Pope (40-33) (4-2)
3. Glenn Schroter (44-29) (5-1)
4. Mark Srebro (40-33) (4-2)
5. Rick Hart (37-36) (4-1-1)
6. Carlos Perez (41-32) (4-2)
7. Jeff Clampitt (47-26) (5-1)
8. Michael Edelman (35-38) (3-3)
9. James Mack (48-25) (6-0)
10. Phillip McDonald (41-32) (3-3)
11. Ken Magner (45-28) (5-1)
12. Eric Lindquist (32-41) (2-4)
13. Alex Kaganovsky (45-28) (5-1)
14. Don Jagoda (41-32) (4-2)
15. Richard Duewel (36-37) (3-3)
- 12 of the top 15 (80%) lifetime scoring leaders have won more GAMES than they lost in the 73 total games played.
- 11 of the top 15 (73%) lifetime scoring leaders have had more winning SEASONS than losing seasons in the 5 completed and 1 partial season.
Of course since weeks 14-16 ARE counted in the lifetime point standings, this data DOES NOT include 15 games that have a bearing on the total points, but obviously cannot be counted in that record.
I am going to try and compare this data later.
Are there going to be exceptions....ABSOLUTELY! Exceptions/luck happens around us EVERY day. Is it 100% guaranteed that I will make it to work safely EVERY day.....NO. The percentage is high, but NOTHING is 100%. Everyone knows that H2H is less reliable than points scored in determining the best teams, but as a game operator, H2H IS needed. Lance's post summed it up well, as he said each week you go to battle against one other team.
I also believe the NFFC does the BEST job of any contest out there, in allowing the teams who score well MULTIPLE opportunities to win $$$ over "blindly" just giving it to the H2H team.
As for the 3 week playoff, you simply need to get "hot" at the right time. I'm OK with that. Personally, my teams have not fared well in that 3 week span over the last 5 years, but I know I have ZERO chance of winning the 100K if I don't make it to the championship round. Goal one EVERY year is to get there. The more I get there, the more opportunities I have to "get hot" at the right time, and bring home some cash!
[ November 07, 2009, 12:31 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]