Biggest Surprise Team in Football for 2009

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Robert Edwards
Posts: 63
Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2009 6:00 pm

Biggest Surprise Team in Football for 2009

Post by Robert Edwards » Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:39 am

I love how we (me included) have already written off so many teams this year (Detroit, KC, Oakland, Denver, etc.), but there always is a surprise. The article below is not my work (Touthouse), but was pretty average about what was being said and what I believed as well. The Falcons finished 11-5, though they were widely believed to be one of the worst.

"2008 Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Predictions
To call the Falcons 2007 season an unmitigated disaster is something of an understatement. First year head coach Bobby Petrino was lured from the college ranks at Louisville because Petrino wanted the challenge of designing an offense for the unique talents of Michael Vick. Unfortunately for Petrino, Vick was in jail by the time the season started, and the team’s veterans never bought into his system one iota. Petrino was gone by December as the Falcons stumbled to a miserable 4-12 campaign.

The Falcons enter 2008 with a completely new gameplan. Everything is new in Atlanta this year: a new general manager, a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, a new defensive coordinator and a new rookie quarterback, the #1 overall pick Matt Ryan. Teams that undergo this sort of change and transformation from one year to the next tend to struggle early and often while learning their new systems. No surprise, then, that the Falcons Over/Under win total of 4.5 is the lowest in the NFL – conventional wisdom says that this team will be the worst squad in the league.

The scariest thing for Falcons supporters to consider might be the fact that somehow, Atlanta finished with a positive turnover differential in 2007, by far the weakest team in the league to win the turnover battle. And, entering training camp, the Falcons have more than 50 players on their roster with two years of NFL experience or less. Rookie head coach Mike Smith, the former Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator is in line for a tough rebuilding job right from the get-go.

The Falcons enter training camp with a quarterback battle on their hands. Chris Redman was out of the NFL when Petrino called him last year, desperate for a QB with familiarity running his offense. Redman played for Petrino in college, but he was never considered a serious NFL prospect. However, Redman was decent down the stretch for Atlanta last year, playing in seven games with a very respectable QB rating of 90.4. Ryan, the rookie out of Boston College, was ranked as the eighth best college quarterback prospect heading into his senior year, and questions persist about his ability to immediately step into the starting role.

The bad news for whoever wins the quarterback battle is the state of the rest of Atlanta’s offense. Yes, the offensive line has three linemen remaining from their NFC Championship Game appearance in 2004 (Todd Weiner, Todd McClure and Kynan Forney. But even with those three last year, the Falcons allowed 47 sacks while paving the way for only 95 rushing yards per game after leading the league in rushing in each of their previous three seasons. Rookie first rounder Sam Baker from USC is expected to start at left tackle. New offensive line coach Paul Boudreau is hoping that Baker will have a Joe Thomas ( the Browns star rookie last year) effect on the OL as a rookie, not the Robert Gallery effect (the Raiders bust from ’05).

There’s some decent skill position talent to work with. Running back Michael ‘The Burner’ Turner arrived in free agency from San Diego after a very successful stint as LaDanian Tomlinson’s backup. But Turner has never carried the ball more than 80 times in his four NFL seasons – we don’t know if he can withstand a full season of the beating that running backs take on a weekly basis. Wide receiver Roddy White enjoyed a breakout campaign last year, and the Falcons brass is hoping that another former first rounder, Michael Jenkins, will have a similar breakout in 2008.

The Falcons defense ranked 29th in the NFL last year and lost their best player, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, in free agency. Mike Smith hired Brian VanGorder as his new defensive coordinator; the Falcons linebackers coach last year after a short stint in the college ranks as the Georgia Bulldogs defensive coordinator.

VanGorder has some experienced talent to work with, particularly up front. They’ll need to get some sort of a pass rush from defensive ends John Abraham (injury prone) and their 2007 #1 pick Jamaal Anderson, who finished his rookie season without a single sack. There’s better depth on the DL this year thanks to the free agent signings of Rashad Moore and Kendall Morehead. Atlanta’s linebacking corps is the strength of the defense, with Keith Brooking still playing at a pro bowl level and Michael Boley not far behind.

But in a pass happy league, the Falcons secondary is as green as it gets. Cornerback Chris Houston is in his second year in the league, as is the projected starter on the other side, David Irons. The draft brought third rounder Chevis Jackson from LSU into the mix, while free agent addition Von Hutchins provides depth. 12 year veteran Lawyer Malloy has clearly lost a step — they’ll need some production out of another free agent acquisition, safety Eric Coleman from the Jets.

The NFC South gets a significant break from the schedule makers this year, facing two of the weaker divisions in the league: the NFC North and AFC West. Between those two divisions there is only one team lined at more than eight wins – the other seven squads are projected to be at or below .500 from the betting marketplace. The Falcons have a slate chock full of winnable home games including Detroit, Kansas City and Chicago to open the season. Yes, we can project this team to be among the weaker NFL entrants in 2008, but I don’t expect to bet them Under 4.5 wins with their relatively easy schedule."

Who will be the surprise this year? My submission for the Cinderella story would be Cleveland. Most of their line returns and have potential upgrades. Quarterback is undecided, but they have some depth in the running game as well as at reciever (Edwards, Massaquoi). Their defense will have to improve. Not a guarantee, but they could challenge. Who do you like?
Wayne Edwards

The "other" Wayne

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kjduke
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Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2004 6:00 pm

Biggest Surprise Team in Football for 2009

Post by kjduke » Thu Sep 03, 2009 1:40 pm

Wayne - new name - what happened to the old?

CC's Desperados
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Biggest Surprise Team in Football for 2009

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Sep 04, 2009 3:56 am

Originally posted by Phat Bustards:
I love how we (me included) have already written off so many teams this year (Detroit, KC, Oakland, Denver, etc.), but there always is a surprise. The article below is not my work (Touthouse), but was pretty average about what was being said and what I believed as well. The Falcons finished 11-5, though they were widely believed to be one of the worst.

"2008 Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Predictions
To call the Falcons 2007 season an unmitigated disaster is something of an understatement. First year head coach Bobby Petrino was lured from the college ranks at Louisville because Petrino wanted the challenge of designing an offense for the unique talents of Michael Vick. Unfortunately for Petrino, Vick was in jail by the time the season started, and the team’s veterans never bought into his system one iota. Petrino was gone by December as the Falcons stumbled to a miserable 4-12 campaign.

The Falcons enter 2008 with a completely new gameplan. Everything is new in Atlanta this year: a new general manager, a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, a new defensive coordinator and a new rookie quarterback, the #1 overall pick Matt Ryan. Teams that undergo this sort of change and transformation from one year to the next tend to struggle early and often while learning their new systems. No surprise, then, that the Falcons Over/Under win total of 4.5 is the lowest in the NFL – conventional wisdom says that this team will be the worst squad in the league.

The scariest thing for Falcons supporters to consider might be the fact that somehow, Atlanta finished with a positive turnover differential in 2007, by far the weakest team in the league to win the turnover battle. And, entering training camp, the Falcons have more than 50 players on their roster with two years of NFL experience or less. Rookie head coach Mike Smith, the former Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator is in line for a tough rebuilding job right from the get-go.

The Falcons enter training camp with a quarterback battle on their hands. Chris Redman was out of the NFL when Petrino called him last year, desperate for a QB with familiarity running his offense. Redman played for Petrino in college, but he was never considered a serious NFL prospect. However, Redman was decent down the stretch for Atlanta last year, playing in seven games with a very respectable QB rating of 90.4. Ryan, the rookie out of Boston College, was ranked as the eighth best college quarterback prospect heading into his senior year, and questions persist about his ability to immediately step into the starting role.

The bad news for whoever wins the quarterback battle is the state of the rest of Atlanta’s offense. Yes, the offensive line has three linemen remaining from their NFC Championship Game appearance in 2004 (Todd Weiner, Todd McClure and Kynan Forney. But even with those three last year, the Falcons allowed 47 sacks while paving the way for only 95 rushing yards per game after leading the league in rushing in each of their previous three seasons. Rookie first rounder Sam Baker from USC is expected to start at left tackle. New offensive line coach Paul Boudreau is hoping that Baker will have a Joe Thomas ( the Browns star rookie last year) effect on the OL as a rookie, not the Robert Gallery effect (the Raiders bust from ’05).

There’s some decent skill position talent to work with. Running back Michael ‘The Burner’ Turner arrived in free agency from San Diego after a very successful stint as LaDanian Tomlinson’s backup. But Turner has never carried the ball more than 80 times in his four NFL seasons – we don’t know if he can withstand a full season of the beating that running backs take on a weekly basis. Wide receiver Roddy White enjoyed a breakout campaign last year, and the Falcons brass is hoping that another former first rounder, Michael Jenkins, will have a similar breakout in 2008.

The Falcons defense ranked 29th in the NFL last year and lost their best player, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, in free agency. Mike Smith hired Brian VanGorder as his new defensive coordinator; the Falcons linebackers coach last year after a short stint in the college ranks as the Georgia Bulldogs defensive coordinator.

VanGorder has some experienced talent to work with, particularly up front. They’ll need to get some sort of a pass rush from defensive ends John Abraham (injury prone) and their 2007 #1 pick Jamaal Anderson, who finished his rookie season without a single sack. There’s better depth on the DL this year thanks to the free agent signings of Rashad Moore and Kendall Morehead. Atlanta’s linebacking corps is the strength of the defense, with Keith Brooking still playing at a pro bowl level and Michael Boley not far behind.

But in a pass happy league, the Falcons secondary is as green as it gets. Cornerback Chris Houston is in his second year in the league, as is the projected starter on the other side, David Irons. The draft brought third rounder Chevis Jackson from LSU into the mix, while free agent addition Von Hutchins provides depth. 12 year veteran Lawyer Malloy has clearly lost a step — they’ll need some production out of another free agent acquisition, safety Eric Coleman from the Jets.

The NFC South gets a significant break from the schedule makers this year, facing two of the weaker divisions in the league: the NFC North and AFC West. Between those two divisions there is only one team lined at more than eight wins – the other seven squads are projected to be at or below .500 from the betting marketplace. The Falcons have a slate chock full of winnable home games including Detroit, Kansas City and Chicago to open the season. Yes, we can project this team to be among the weaker NFL entrants in 2008, but I don’t expect to bet them Under 4.5 wins with their relatively easy schedule."

Who will be the surprise this year? My submission for the Cinderella story would be Cleveland. Most of their line returns and have potential upgrades. Quarterback is undecided, but they have some depth in the running game as well as at reciever (Edwards, Massaquoi). Their defense will have to improve. Not a guarantee, but they could challenge. Who do you like? Wayne....I like the cross over. Where have you been for the last five years? I haven't been on these boards that much the last couple of months. I'm guessing you are playing in the online event. I wish you luck if that is the case. I agree with you that Cleveland should improve this year after taking a step backwards last year.

Robert Edwards
Posts: 63
Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2009 6:00 pm

Biggest Surprise Team in Football for 2009

Post by Robert Edwards » Fri Sep 04, 2009 5:59 am

Yup. First year slumming in football on a national level. ;)

I have had such LUCK in baseball this year I figured football might treat me better. I am doing an online championship league (with a couple of sharks (Gino Yu and Jules McLean to name a few). Dave Clum almost had me going out to Vegas, but with what is going on in my company (Merial, my company, is tied up in all that Merck/Sanofi-aventis/Schering-Plough activity), I am not able to get away. So, I will just jump in with an online championship. If I do well enough, you guys might get to see me twice a year starting next year!

I had trouble logging onto this message board as "Edwards Kings", but that is alright because "Phat Bustards" has been my football persona for years (locally, of course).

Good luck to all and especially to you both!
Wayne Edwards

The "other" Wayne

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