NFFC Message Boards

I present the following facts and conclusions for your review. Let me know what you think. Thanks.

NFFC (14 teams/league)
Sample size = Top 50 teams overall

Results:
Avg draft slot of top 50 teams = 6.5 (a full 1 draft slot below the "norm").

# of teams that drafted 1-7 in the top 50 = 29
# of teams that drafted 8-14 in the top 50 = 21

Draft slot with the most occurrences in the top 50 = Draft Slot 1 with 8 owners


“Other” Event (12 teams/league)
Sample size = Top 50 teams overall

Results:
Avg draft slot of top 50 teams = 4.5 (a full 2 draft slots below the "norm").

# of teams that drafted 1-6 in the top 50 = 37
# of teams that drafted 7-12 in the top 50 = 13

Draft slot with the most occurrences in the top 50 = Draft Slot 1 with 14 owners


Conclusions:
Owners in BOTH events do better if they have an EARLY draft slot. The owner with the #1 pick has a clear advantage over everyone else. It’s not even close. When combining both events, 22% of the teams in the top 50 picked at draft slot #1. If draft slots were all equal, that % should be around 7-8%. The actual % is almost triple!!!!

In any event, I have NOT found ANY data (from the same or similar high stakes events) supporting the idea that all draft slots have an equal chance of doing well. Please someone dispute what I'm saying using relevant data. Now is your chance. Don't hold back...

[ November 02, 2004, 06:29 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

GG, the only thing this supports is that a 14 team league will spread out the top teams more evenly.

then gain, in another thread (why in the hell did you start a new one exactly like this one???). You should have done this research last week (I suspect you did, but found that your findings do not conclude what the findings conclude now).

could this have anyhting to do with the rash on injuries to players that were typically drafted around the lower positions. Like the following..

Lewis went lower than usual b/c of his legal situation. He missed 2 games and had a bye week.
Moss was out for 2 games
Portis has been unspectacular for his draft slot of 4-7
Harrison and Holt are having off years where many owners went WR/WR near the bottom of the draft.
Duece was out for what 4 games or so
S Davis has a totla of 14 points and he was draft early second or so

Have you just proven that injuries to players that were usually draft in the lower rounds will affect teams more in a 12 team league than a 14 team league?

Is it possible that you will stay on this subject until hell freezes over???? Hell even I gave up the increase roster size cause the lesser drafters cried about it

Tell me, how would the numbers look if Priest goes down for a significant amount of time??????

How about using average points per game instead of straight points to evaluate a player? This is a more fair view of players than actual points.

Have you accounted for all bye weeks yet where teams will be affected? Gee GB who has some decent palyers will be off this week, wonder how those teams will fair. BTW- there are 8 teams who have to have thier bye yet.

This is completely flawed rational with the above mentioned observations.... Unless you can see the future and who will get injured, and believe me, you are not that good.

GG, Do this WCOFF in 2002, or even last year. You will see that your arguement holds no water.

Why don't you look at your own data and see what it tell us. The more teams there are the more parity. If you made it 16, it would spead the stud players out even more, creating a more even playing field. Now why do the owners picking #1 have an edge? Because Priest Homles is scoring 10 Td's more than any RB or WR? That is the only reason. In past years, the best player hasn't come from the first pick. Two year ago Holmes wasn't taken first, he was the impact player that year. The player you needed to win. When Rice was in his prime, he was huge edge at receiver(22 td's 1987).
If you are looking at this year, of course the players that have Priest Holmes have the edge, there is only one Priet Holmes. If I'm playing this game year in and year out, I would much rather it be draw than bid. Over a ten year period, it should balance out, but in the bidding process, I might never get a so called desirable pick. The bidding money is dead money, I spent 885 on Mondesi in the baseball auction and still won. I spent 971 on Gordon and I'm in the hunt. I took my shots and lost. You got Droughns for 64. I'm sure out 1000 dollars if you got 1 impact player you would be happy. So spending your money in draft slots would not hold anyone back. It would be trail and error for a few years. You might end up donating 5000 over a 4 year span and never get a spot you wanted. That would get old fast.

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
GG, the only thing this supports is that a 14 team league will spread out the top teams more evenly. I suspect the NFFC will be closer to the results of the "other" league next year. Think about it...the owners who stole Culpepper at the end of the first round or early second will no longer get that luxury. Next year, I envision him going before pick 6 in all leagues.

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
You should have done this research last week (I suspect you did, but found that your findings do not conclude what the findings conclude now). Wish I had unlimited time like you Phil.

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
could this have anyhting to do with the rash on injuries to players that were typically drafted around the lower positions. No. You are just making excuses. The FACTS support my claim. Where are your facts?

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
Is it possible that you will stay on this subject until hell freezes over???? Hell even I gave up the increase roster size cause the lesser drafters cried about it It appears I don't give up as easily as you.

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
Tell me, how would the numbers look if Priest goes down for a significant amount of time??????Exactly my point. Owners drafting at the lower-end have to hope that the #1 or #2 picks overall get hurt to stand a reasonable chance for success.

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
GG, Do this WCOFF in 2002, or even last year. You will see that your arguement holds no water. I don't have that information. Even if that is the case, the only way the lower-end owners stands a chance (on average) is if the top #1 or #2 picks overall get hurt. Stop showing excuses and show some facts. Thanks.

[ November 02, 2004, 07:22 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:
The bidding money is dead money, I spent 885 on Mondesi in the baseball auction and still won. I spent 971 on Gordon and I'm in the hunt. You do have a unique way of "playing". I'm in a couple football leagues with you, and I saw what you did in baseball, and I gotta say job well done.

Facts? Are you trying to tell me that injuries do not play a factor in yuor results? Or are you saying that there were no injuries and you want me to prove it????What do you want, I think I have proven my statements. You have proven the injuries can affect teams, good going....

As far as free time, you post a whole heck of alot mroe than I do. Mr 890 (as of this posting)

BTW- I do hope teams draft dante too early, push the talent down, of course, I'll be picking high then and can't take advantage of the situation.

Excuses, actually, the injuries I speak of are facts. does your arguement hold true if Holmes goes down???? Please answer...

[ November 02, 2004, 07:28 PM: Message edited by: Vega$ Gambler$ ]

Oh GG, I have 46 of the top 50 positions with draft positions in 2002:

1- 5
2- 2
3- 4
4- 6
5- 6
6- 2
7- 2
8- 4
9- 4
10-2
11-5
12-4

I am missing 4 teams draft picks, a couple I recognize and i belive there were the 6/7 slot. I will try to find out. Currently, the breakdown is 25/21

From this data, you can see Holmes went to slot 4-5 alot. Faulk went #1 in every league. Yet 18% of the top 50 went to teams 11 + 12.

And for your further amusement, the points leader picked 9th and the overall winner picked 10th. Seems liek the bottom did pretty well, at elast $200,000 pretty well.....

It seems to me that you can win anywhere with this data......

Your turn

[ November 02, 2004, 07:38 PM: Message edited by: Vega$ Gambler$ ]

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
From this data, you can see Holmes went to slot 4-5 alot. Faulk went #1 in every league. so with Faulk going #1 in a down year for him, the avg draft slot for the other event in 2002 was (according to your #'s) 6.34...which still slightly favors an earlier draft position. Thanks.

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
does your arguement hold true if Holmes goes down???? Please answer... having holmes go down is one of the only realistic ways a lot of the lower-end teams stand a fair chance. get it yet? there is a draft slot bias. there are two ways to negate the bias:
1. lower-end teams must draft and perform FA pickups almost flawlessly. Can it be done....yes. but the deck is stacked against you.
2. Hope holmes (or whoever the consensus #1 pick is) gets hurt

if you didn't realize it, most of your arguments are supporting my claims. you've almost come full circle now. getting close.

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
does your arguement hold true if Holmes goes down???? Please answer... having holmes go down is one of the only realistic ways a lot of the lower-end teams stand a fair chance. get it yet? there is a draft slot bias. there are two ways to negate the bias:
1. lower-end teams must draft and perform FA pickups almost flawlessly. Can it be done....yes. but the deck is stacked against you.
2. Hope holmes (or whoever the consensus #1 pick is) gets hurt

if you didn't realize it, most of your arguments are supporting my claims. you've almost come full circle now. getting close. [/QUOTE]You forgot #3.....

Draft better than the guy who took Holmes! May sound silly, but it is true!