Chicago League 3

gomizzouman · Post by **gomizzouman** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:56 am

nnoy,

Why the lack of love for Team 5? I would have to put them in the top half of the league. A solid and undervalued qb in brooks, three good backs with two of them handcuffed, and good value, depth and upside at receiver with Porter, Branch, Wayne, Galloway, Parker and Evans.

The only thing I can really say bad about their team is at tight end, though I have L.J in another league. Carney is respectable and Jacksonville's D is questionable, but on the rise. Dead last?

I don't have it in front of me but I did have 1 and 2 as the two top teams. This is all about the Priest and L.T factor. The top two backs historically outscore the no. 10 back by 150 points and that is hard to overcome. I also remember having 8 and 5 pretty high and 3 and 14 somewhere in the middle.

Have you ran the statistcal odds on Stephen Davis and Curtis Martin having enough tread to make it through the season without either getting hurt or just running out of gas?

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:44 am

Thomas Jones 10.5
LJ Smith 4 Not projected to start
Carney 6.5
Jac 5.5
Flex 9

Team 5 could have big problems at the 2nd RB and flex positions. Also their TE is a back-up on a team that does not use the TE much, I expect a FA claim in week 2 for them there. They also have a bottom K and D, not that it matters much but some teams project 17-19 points from the combined K and D positions, team 5 is closer to 12.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:01 am

nnoy - if you care, run the #'s on my team. i'd like to see what "your #'s say", as opposed to the actual results. sort of like comparing a.sanchez at the midpoint of the baseball season, to what he's done in the 2nd half. thanks.

theguru78 · Post by **theguru78** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 10:18 am

nnoy-

How in the world do you believe that we (Team 14) will finish 9th? Since we are one of three teams that currently has three starting RBs, I find it odd that you would question our team's abilities. Here is what our starting lineup will look like Week 1:

QB-Tom Brady
RB-Fred Taylor
RB-Corey Dillon
RB/WR-Charlie Garner
WR-Santana Moss
WR-Plaxico Burress
WR-Dante Stallworth
TE-Marcus Pollard
K-David Akers
Defense-Dallas

Am I missing something here, or am I just lost in my own crack induced world? I truly feel that my team will easily finish in the top 5, barring injuries.

Lay off the crack, Nostradomus!

Guru

brad_brown · Post by **brad_brown** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 10:25 am

I think it all comes down to the fact that nnoy's ranking are based on HIS projections. All that means is that if he drafted off his projections, than his team probably projects out to finishing first.

If any of us were to quantify our draft lists and put together rankings based on those I am guessing that our teams would come out first also. Everyone drafts to what they think will happen but as we all know that is hardly ever right.

I will just let nnoy live in the delusional world painted by his projections until the real stats start coming in and 'projections' go out the window.

[ September 07, 2004, 04:25 PM: Message edited by: Brad Brown ]

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:02 am

Brad’s assessment of my projections is correct. However, one does not always have the best team based on one’s own projections (when this happens you can chalk up a blown draft.)

I made an offer to the Gekko to put up my projections against his and run a correlation analysis at the end of the season to determine who was more accurate. I am willing to do the same against anyone that actually spent the time to project the stats themselves.

Brad is also correct in his assertion that these projections will likely contain a high degree of variance, as will any projection you can get from any website or magazine.

Team 14 here is what I had for you by position:

QB 20
RB 15.5
RB 13.2
RC 16
RC 13
RC 10
Flex 10
TE 8
K 7
D 8
120.7

I slightly downgraded Taylor from his performance last year because of his health and the assumption that the Jags will throw more because of the enforced rules and a year of maturity for BL. I also don’t project any improvement for Garner, Pollard, or the Saints D. Your other players should see some improvement and Dillon will obviously more than double his production.

[ September 07, 2004, 05:12 PM: Message edited by: nnoy ]

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:05 am

Not sure how the Gekko got into this discussion since he’s not in this league (works both ways Gordo) but here’s what I have for him:

QB 20
RB 14.5
RB 13.5
RC 11.5
RC 10
RC 11
Flex 12.6
TE 14
K 9.5
D 8
124.6

Yes, the season starts in two days and these can be thrown out the window. However, without projections how could anyone reasonably prepare for this thing? (Oh yea, I forgot there were tools that took Shipp and Buckhalter (both projected at 0.0 on my board by the way.))

[ September 07, 2004, 05:25 PM: Message edited by: nnoy ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:22 am

nnoy - i got 127/game with my projections, so we are in the same ballpark. What my stats and your stats don't account for are that I'll have better bye week fill-ins than most teams, have a greater insurance policy against one of my RB's getting hurt, and spot play my defense and wr's when match-ups dictate.

[ September 07, 2004, 05:22 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:37 am

Good point Gordo. I agree that projections cannot take line-up rotation and depth into account. I took a beating for my Vick/Favre combo, but I’m confident I’ll extract an additional 20-50 points over the course of the season simply by maximizing the match-ups and getting a higher number of favorable QB v Defense games.

Plus as it has been pointed out the odds of a RC emerging as a quality FA pick-up are quite high. I for one intend to be prepared to blow 60-80% of my FAAB after week 1.