Predictions thread...

[jjsegura78]

Originally posted by mattjb:
Oh i missed out my best sleeper prediction for the season...

Tashard Choice will be the starting running back for the Cowboys by mid season. Bold... But I like it and agree 99.99%. Marion football speed is not there anymore, and Felix will be Felix (He'll have his bursts of greatness, but will o ly play 8-10 games).

[Sandman62]

That's funny, most of what I've read suggests just the opposite - that Barber IS running faster this preseason.

[Sandman62]

Ok, here are my bold predictions for the year. Thanks for starting this thread James; it should be fun looking back on this at the end.

QBs

Rodgers – will flirt with Marino’s 5000 yard record and again lead all fantasy players in NFFC points. But we still haven't managed to land him in a single draft (out of 12 so far, with one more 14-team $250 Satellite tonight)
Rivers – will fail to reach 4000 yards passing or surpass 25 TDs. Floyd may breakout, but he’s not VJax. Could also suffer if Mathews hits the rookie RB wall and their offense slows down
Kolb – soft schedule and pass-happy coach on the hot seat (for trading McNabb) will help him break into top 10 with 4200/25/18
Flacco – will just miss the top 10, despite his new toys and lofty expectations. He struggled vs. tough defenses last year, with 9 games of less than 200 yards passing and his schedule this year is the toughest vs. the pass. Expect only modest improvement from last year’s 3600/21/12 to around 3900/25/13 this year, still making him one of this year's better value plays at QB, while those who took him later than top QBs got to load up at other positions first
Stafford – especially valuable this year in DC league format. Though his season points may not break into top 10 due to inconsistency, don’t be surprised in a DC if you have him as your QB2 that you’re not using HIS points over your QB1 half the time

RBs

Chris Johnson – will suffer the Curse of 370! Ok, so he didn’t technically have 370 rushes last year, but darned close (358). But w/ 408 total touches and 243 of them in the second half of the season, I’d say it’s pretty much the same thing. IF he somehow avoids the curse, he still won’t match last year’s numbers, but will score ~330 NFFC points and remain the 2nd best option at RB. But I wouldn’t count on 16 games from him. Those of you who drafted 2nd and got Peterson, say “Thank you” to the team who drafted in front of you who paid for last year’s stats.
Rice – most overvalued RB of the year! Combination of new passing weapons for Flacco will yield less rushes and receptions for Rice than last year. He’ll be lucky to break 230 NFFC points, putting his value on par w/ Gore, SJax, Turner and DeAngelo. If your team makes it to the playoffs w/ Rice on it though, you’ll be rewarded w/ a cake playoff schedule vs. HOU, NO and CLE
Steven Jackson – Bradford will struggle a bit, but SJax will still be the centerpiece of this offense and play 15 games. His schedule vs. his crappy division plus the AFC West will help him finish as a top-5 NFFC RB
DeAngelo Williams – will remind us that his coach is loyal to veterans, and feed him the rock during his contract year, yielding 1500+ total yards and double-digit TDs, vaulting him to top-5 status. Stewart will stand on the sideline, praying for him to get hurt (along w/ most Stewart NFFC owners )
Bradshaw, Barber, Bush (Reggie) – will all lead their team in RB NFFC points. Ok, the Bush one’s a bit of a stretch, but I do believe he will get more than expected of the 170 rushes Mike Bell left for PHI with. Bradshaw and Barber will be two of this year’s RBs who are projected outside the top 25 that will finish the year in the top 10 (in large part due to their fragile backfield mates)

WRs
Roddy White – will likely still finish with his usual consistent 85/1200, but will regress out of double-digit TDs with a full season from a healthy Turner. Will end up the WR8 with less than 260 NFFC points. But outside of DC leagues, the ride may be a bit bumpy; last year, he had 10 games with less than 60 YPG, which would’ve been harder to live with if he hadn’t also scored 11 TDs (which won’t be repeated)
Fitzgerald – the strong-but-inaccurate-armed Anderson will prove more than enough to help him continue hauling in close to 90 receptions, 1200+ yards and double-digit TDs, finishing the year close to top-5 at WR
DeSean Jackson – not a fan of WRs who make their mark on hard-to-predict/repeat bombs but aren’t really big, strong red-zone targets. Expect last year’s 18.5 YPC to drop to a more reasonable 16-16.5 range (still elite). Subtract a few of those bomb TDs too and you have a 220-point NFFC WR who will finish the season behind Crabtree, Bowe and both Steve Smiths, right around Boldin territory – most of whom were drafted a full round or more later
Chad vs. T.O. – this will be a close and fun one to watch, with T.O. proving to be the better value play this year. Chad: 70/950/6, T.O.: 60/900/6
Sims-Walker – injury prone + bad QB + questionable RB health + his stumbling through the second half of last year = a player who was overdrafted this year, likely by many of the same owners who enjoyed his breakout first half last year. Expect more like 65/800/6, or ~180 NFFC points this year, making it hard to justify his mid-4th round ADP
Gaffney – with Marshall gone, Demaryus Thomas missing much of the off-season workouts, Moreno’s hammy (which I really do hope doesn’t linger), Orton looking confident, no pass-catching TE and an easy schedule vs. his own weak division as well as the putrid NFC West… look for Gaffney to flirt w/ top-25 WR status, just due to sheer opportunity, making him a rock-solid fantasy WR3

TEs
Witten – will battle for top TE of the year! Witten is already a PPR beast and with the Cowboys intention of getting him more involved in the red zone, along with Austin getting increased attention from defenses, he should easily score 5 or 6 times this year (2 last year). Since 2004, he’s scored 6, 6, 1, 7, 4 and 2 TDs = 26 TDs or 4.3 TDs/year. TDs are less predictable/repeatable than receptions and yards, and he can’t get much worse in the TD department. If he were to score 7 or 8 times, he could lead all TEs
Zach Miller (OAK) – finally paired with a decent QB who won’t stall all his team’s drives, he’ll approach 80/1000/6 numbers, finishing as a top-10 TE, in the same range as Davis and Celek, who were drafted a couple rounds earlier in most leagues
Cooley – likely the TE value of the draft, taken in or after round 8 in most leagues. With just him and Santana Moss as legit receiving options for McNabb and a schedule that’s littered with easy pass defenses, he will finish just inside the top 10 with around 70/770/6
Scheffler – the Lions are going to more two tight end sets this year and Scheffler is a better receiver than Pettigrew. Over the 2007-08 seasons, he averaged 45 receptions. Plus at 6’5” and with Calvin seeing more attention in the red zone, he should score 4-6 times too. Look for 45/500/6, darned near starter status in a 14-team league, making him one of the cheapest TE2s this year. For those who drafted a top TE, Scheffler will only be a bye week replacement and injury insurance; for those who gambled later at TE and lose, he could be their TE1 for much of the season.

[ September 08, 2010, 04:15 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

[Coltsfan]

Finley 85/1200/12 for 277 points this year.

Rodgers - 4500 yards and 40 total TD's.

Mike Williams (TB) will breakout

Stafford and Flacco will both be nice fantasy options.


Wayne

[mattjb]

oh yeah and this online team wins me 50k

QBS: A Rodgers / A Smith
RBs: J Charles / M Forte / C Williams / T Hightower / C Buckhalter / T Choice
WRs: M Austin / S Moss / B Berrian / L Evans / J Edleman / J Jones (GB) / M Williams (SEA)
TEs: V Davis / R Gronkowski
Def: NY Jets / Tampa Bay
Kicker: D Carpenter

[Sandman62]

matt, isn't posting your Online team a bit out of context for this thread? Aren't there already enough "Post your teams" threads, without trying to turn EVERY thread into a "Look at me" one? Geez. :rolleyes:

Besides, the top 3 Online teams have already been identified.

[mattjb]

Originally posted by Sandman62:
matt, isn't posting your Online team a bit out of context for this thread? Aren't there already enough "Post your teams" threads, without trying to turn EVERY thread into a "Look at me" one? Geez. :rolleyes:

Besides, the top 3 Online teams have already been identified. You'll have to forgive my excitement for my first NFFC season. And besides you need to be set straight

[Sandman62]

Understandable. Just trying to be respectful to James, the guy who started this thread. It can be pretty frustrating to put a lot of effort into a topic, just to watch it derailed. Good luck this year.

Now feel free to jump in w/ some player predictions.

[mattjb]

Well I already put a few up...

but one more...

I disagree with many on Ray Rice - i think McGahee becomes far less involved and Rice matches last seasons fantasy points.

(Oh and I dreamt last night that the Saints break Favre in two on thursday and he retired friday morning)

[Sandman62]

I agree that McGahee won't score 14 TDs again. But I don't think he loses them to Rice; rather, to Boldin and Housh. Rice will drop down from his 78 catches last year to around 45 (and obviously lose the receiving yards that go with them). He may drop 100 or so yards rushing too as they throw a bit more. He won't be this year's Forte, but he won't score the 275 or so that most expected when they took him. Still, his 230+ points keep him in the same range as Gore, SJax, Turner and DeAngelo, but still probably ahead of them due to his upside. I just think it wouldn't have been crazy to draft Rodgers or Moss ahead of him - just as you would consider vs. those other listed RBs.