FF 2010: TRULY WILD & WACKY!!!

kentucky · Post by **kentucky** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:49 am

GK..i don't think it's a question of stirring anything up, i believe you have answered your own question here. it could truly be the year of luck to win any league or overall...JMO...SURVIVE AND ADVANCE...does that sound familiar???

mattjb · Post by **mattjb** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:09 am

would be interested in some real numbers to see if there are more injuruies to starting skill positions than normal or if it is just our collective perception...I have a sneaky feeling it might be the latter.

stage4mtbk · Post by **stage4mtbk** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:52 am

With the amount of info available to everyone, I think you're starting to see that luck is unfortunately more important than skill. This was talked about a lot previously, but its rather apparent that fantasy baseball is much more skillful. Fantasy football can break one way or another with one injury/lucky pick etc.

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:51 am

I was thinking the same thing Matt and almost talked myself into a weeks worth of research. Good thing I came to my senses.

kentucky · Post by **kentucky** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:57 am

Originally posted by Silver and Black:
I was thinking the same thing Matt and almost talked myself into a weeks worth of research. Good thing I came to my senses.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:47 pm

Originally posted by GK:
...to me the answer is rather obvious; it's simply The Year Of Attrition due to the sheer number of substantial INJURIES to more than quite a few significant players...anyone else disagree or have another theory here?...thanks much...GK I'm not so sure that it's been so much because of injuries to top players or more a matter of just a bunch of players we DIDN'T expect to do so well breaking out?

If you look at the top 20 players at each position in this link, you'll see what I mean: 2010 NFFC ADP & Actual Positional Ranks Through 6 Games. Look how many at each position that weren't really expected to do THIS well (top 20 at their position):

RB
Peyton Hillis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jahvid Best, Ahmad Bradshaw, Darren McFadden, Mike Tolbert (the only one whose production is related to an injury in front of him, Mathews)

WR
Austin Collie, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Malcom Floyd, Terrell Owens, Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Roy E. Williams, Braylon Edwards

TE
Dustin Keller, Benjamin Watson, Brandon Pettigrew, Marcedes Lewis, Jeremy Shockey, Aaron Hernandez, Tony Scheffler, Todd Heap, Jermaine Gresham, Tony Moeaki

We ALL hit on a couple players each year in the mid/late rounds. But I think that this year, with all of the lower-ADP players that are underperforming, I suspect that the best teams this year might have 3, 4 or 5 of the above players carrying their teams.

I agree though, that's it's "whacky" and frustrating. I sincerely hope that this bizarro fantasy season takes a regression to its mean soon, and that players who were drafted as studs come on strong.

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:25 pm

Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by GK:
...to me the answer is rather obvious; it's simply The Year Of Attrition due to the sheer number of substantial INJURIES to more than quite a few significant players...anyone else disagree or have another theory here?...thanks much...GK I'm not so sure that it's been so much because of injuries to top players or more a matter of just a bunch of players we DIDN'T expect to do so well breaking out?

If you look at the top 20 players at each position in this link, you'll see what I mean: 2010 NFFC ADP & Actual Positional Ranks Through 6 Games. Look how many at each position that weren't really expected to do THIS well (top 20 at their position):

RB
Peyton Hillis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jahvid Best, Ahmad Bradshaw, Darren McFadden, Mike Tolbert (the only one whose production is related to an injury in front of him, Mathews)

WR
Austin Collie, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Malcom Floyd, Terrell Owens, Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Roy E. Williams, Braylon Edwards

TE
Dustin Keller, Benjamin Watson, Brandon Pettigrew, Marcedes Lewis, Jeremy Shockey, Aaron Hernandez, Tony Scheffler, Todd Heap, Jermaine Gresham, Tony Moeaki

We ALL hit on a couple players each year in the mid/late rounds. But I think that this year, with all of the lower-ADP players that are underperforming, I suspect that the best teams this year might have 3, 4 or 5 of the above players carrying their teams.

I agree though, that's it's "whacky" and frustrating. I sincerely hope that this bizarro fantasy season takes a regression to its mean soon, and that players who were drafted as studs come on strong. [/QUOTE]Our NFFC Primetime team is 2nd overall in points and the only player we have on our team that is on that list is Peyton Hillis. And I don't think that we have started him but 2 times this year.

I honestly believe that there is a 25% chance that when you enter a fantasy football league that your team will be decimated by injuries and there really isn't much you can do about it. So the other 75% of leagues that you enter you need to draft well enough to put yourself in position to win. Even this year you see enough of the same names near the top that there has to be something to this other than luck. Look at Chad and what he is doing not only here but other high stakes leagues - absolutely amazing!

I have never played fantasy baseball but I do agree that there is far less luck in that vs football. But I just can't imagine sitting down and having to watch a single ballgame. I watched the first pitch of the world series last night and then flipped channels - BORING!

By the way Sandman, that is a very good list. I honestly can't remember a year when so many low round players or even waiver wire players played such a significant role.

Wayne

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:39 pm

Just for the record, I'm certainly not suggesting that the top players won't rise to the top as usual. I just think that there will be a lot of teams that didn't look so good coming away from drafts winning a lot too.

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:57 pm

Sandman,

I almost look at that just the opposite way. The teams that I really like walking away from the draft many times have not had good seasons at all. I absolutely loved John Rozek's team in the Primetime in Chicago but it really hasn't performed at all this year. I thought his SJax, Ryan Matthews, Deangelo start to the draft was out of this world great but it just hasn't happened. I don't see a lot of teams near the top that I thought would be near the bottom though. It's funny but each year after the draft we rate the teams with 4 top tier teams, 4 bottom tier teams, and 4-6 middle tier teams and I can't remember a bottom tier rated team finishing in the top tier. In my mind at least some of the teams are pretty much done before the start of the season.

Wayne