Top 15 RBs From Fantasy Sports Magazine

Team Canada · Post by **Team Canada** » Thu May 14, 2009 7:17 am

Originally posted by GK:
...note to SNAKEself; DeAngelo getting way too much adoration early on from the FF freak and ghoul herds and masses and Gore not getting nearly enough...SNAKE The guy who scores the most last year and has no injuries and is young is getting too much love going 9th?

I have never been a last year guy but sheesh this guy is a mid first round gift!

A lot of my drafting does boil down to talent and he proved last year to be a special player with tons of talent!
The main reason people shy away is his time share with a very injury prone guy

Much like my feeling on Knoshawn this year don't be scared they are 2 of the most talented backs and the coaches should be smart enough to give em the rock enough

I will prefer a 4 to 7 draft pick and target him everytime and assumeing health he will do enough to allow me to win with a solid draft behind him

I do believe a Westbrook this year has more upside but a lot more chance of missing a few games I feel Deangelo is very safe and definetly won't lose you the league like some other first rounders...

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu May 14, 2009 7:27 am

TJ, you make some very good points about Williams. My main concern with him, though, is I don't see him scoring 20 TDs again. That was a huge number and few RBs are able to sustain that level of production - especially if the team has another good goal-line option which the Panthers do in Stewart. And that's not taking into account the possibility Delhomme plays better. He was pretty bad for most of last season.

Williams finished first in the NFFC in scoring last season. Let's say he put up the exact same numbers this season only with 15 TDs instead of 20. That would drop him to a tie for sixth among RBs in average points per game. If he loses any more, that lowers him further.

And that's assuming there isn't a drop-off in his total yardage production.

So while I like DeAngelo a lot I think what we saw last season may have been a career year and not one he's going to duplicate again.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu May 14, 2009 10:42 am

Not that many people need another reason to avoid Joseph Addai this season but here's a pretty big one in my opinion:

Offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd retired today. This is not good for the Colts' offense, period. But I think it puts a real hurt on a player like Addai, who - unlike Manning, Wayne and Clark - isn't supremely talented.

Leroy's Aces · Post by **Leroy's Aces** » Thu May 14, 2009 11:23 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
TJ, you make some very good points about Williams. My main concern with him, though, is I don't see him scoring 20 TDs again. That was a huge number and few RBs are able to sustain that level of production - especially if the team has another good goal-line option which the Panthers do in Stewart. And that's not taking into account the possibility Delhomme plays better. He was pretty bad for most of last season.

Williams finished first in the NFFC in scoring last season. Let's say he put up the exact same numbers this season only with 15 TDs instead of 20. That would drop him to a tie for sixth among RBs in average points per game. If he loses any more, that lowers him further.

And that's assuming there isn't a drop-off in his total yardage production.

So while I like DeAngelo a lot I think what we saw last season may have been a career year and not one he's going to duplicate again. To offer a counter-opinion, I will argue that DeAngelo did not emerge until week 5 last year. Also, Coach Fox has always shown fierce loyalty to his veterans. Many thought Stewart would take that job last year and he did not. How would he do it this year after D Will went crazy in the latter half of 2008? Answer: Barring a DWill injury, he won't.

2008 DWill weeks 1-4:

9.5 points
3 points
5.4 points
7.6 points

In weeks 5-16 he scored 253.6 points and averaged 23.05 NFFC fantasy points a game. That is almost 6 points higher than the 2nd ranked running back, Westbrook at 17.4. That is crazy.

Over a 16 game season, that is 368 fantasy points. Let's take away 8 TDs, or 48 points. That is still 320.8 points or 20 points a game, still 3 points higher than the next best RB from 2008.

DeAngelo Williams gets so much talk about being "overvalued" this year, I am beginning to think maybe he will be undervalued by the "sharks" on draft day....

I just find it funny that a less talented back (Turner) who is a worse pass-catcher (Turner) with a tougher schedule (Turner's) and also benefited from an outlier of a TD total (Turner) is a consensus top 5 guy, while a faster, more talented DeAngelo Williams is considered overvalued in the 7-9 range.

[ May 14, 2009, 05:24 PM: Message edited by: Leroy's Aces ]

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Thu May 14, 2009 12:52 pm

Originally posted by Leroy's Aces:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
TJ, you make some very good points about Williams. My main concern with him, though, is I don't see him scoring 20 TDs again. That was a huge number and few RBs are able to sustain that level of production - especially if the team has another good goal-line option which the Panthers do in Stewart. And that's not taking into account the possibility Delhomme plays better. He was pretty bad for most of last season.

Williams finished first in the NFFC in scoring last season. Let's say he put up the exact same numbers this season only with 15 TDs instead of 20. That would drop him to a tie for sixth among RBs in average points per game. If he loses any more, that lowers him further.

And that's assuming there isn't a drop-off in his total yardage production.

So while I like DeAngelo a lot I think what we saw last season may have been a career year and not one he's going to duplicate again. To offer a counter-opinion, I will argue that DeAngelo did not emerge until week 5 last year. Also, Coach Fox has always shown fierce loyalty to his veterans. Many thought Stewart would take that job last year and he did not. How would he do it this year after D Will went crazy in the latter half of 2008? Answer: Barring a DWill injury, he won't.

2008 DWill weeks 1-4:

9.5 points
3 points
5.4 points
7.6 points

In weeks 5-16 he scored 253.6 points and averaged 23.05 NFFC fantasy points a game. That is almost 6 points higher than the 2nd ranked running back, Westbrook at 17.4. That is crazy.

Over a 16 game season, that is 368 fantasy points. Let's take away 8 TDs, or 48 points. That is still 320.8 points or 20 points a game, still 3 points higher than the next best RB from 2008.

DeAngelo Williams gets so much talk about being "overvalued" this year, I am beginning to think maybe he will be undervalued by the "sharks" on draft day....

I just find it funny that a less talented back (Turner) who is a worse pass-catcher (Turner) with a tougher schedule (Turner's) and also benefited from an outlier of a TD total (Turner) is a consensus top 5 guy, while a faster, more talented DeAngelo Williams is considered overvalued in the 7-9 range. [/QUOTE]I think your analysis is generally correct.

The draft ranking value here in May is all about perception. People still perceive Williams as a time-share RB, and view Turner as a carry-the-load RB. Once we reach August, however, I think that people will see your points more clearly (plus I think Norwood gets more touches in ATL this year) and the gap between Williams and Turner will narrow considerably.

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Thu May 14, 2009 1:56 pm

I'm guessing by camp, Addai will be a 4th rounder.

I'm guessing DeAngelo is 6th or later.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Thu May 14, 2009 4:57 pm

Originally posted by Just Russ:
Here is a comparison between Gore and Addai over the last 3 seasons...

Gore 45 games, 45 GS, 3833 yards, 4.5YPC, 23 TDs

Addai 43 games, 27 GS, 2697 yards, 4.2YPC, 30 TDs

The only thing I see better is YPC. Total yards is a result of him having no passing game and a total reliance on the run. Addai still has more TDs which wash Gore's advantage in yards. Wow, I hope others look at these stats and think Addai is as good a rb as Gore. I actually thought Addai was going to be a special rb coming out of college.

I wonder what Gore's stats would've been last year in a Colts' uniform and what Addai would've done last year as a 49er.

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Thu May 14, 2009 11:15 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:
quote:Originally posted by Just Russ:
Here is a comparison between Gore and Addai over the last 3 seasons...

Gore 45 games, 45 GS, 3833 yards, 4.5YPC, 23 TDs

Addai 43 games, 27 GS, 2697 yards, 4.2YPC, 30 TDs

The only thing I see better is YPC. Total yards is a result of him having no passing game and a total reliance on the run. Addai still has more TDs which wash Gore's advantage in yards. Wow, I hope others look at these stats and think Addai is as good a rb as Gore. I actually thought Addai was going to be a special rb coming out of college.

I wonder what Gore's stats would've been last year in a Colts' uniform and what Addai would've done last year as a 49er. [/QUOTE]What about Gore's 23 TDs makes him great in your mind?

Here are the RBs who have had more rushing TDs in a season in the last 3 years:

1 LaDainian Tomlinson 28
2 DeAngelo Williams 18
3 Michael Turner 17
4 Larry Johnson 17
5 LaDainian Tomlinson15
6 Brandon Jacobs 15
7 LenDale White 15
8 Marion Barber 14
9 Thomas Jones 13
10 Steven Jackson rb 13
11 Maurice Jones-Drew 13
12 Willie Parker 13
13 Corey Dillon 13
14 Joseph Addai 12
15 Adrian Peterson 12
16 Rudi Johnson 12
17 Maurice Jones-Drew 11
18 LaDainian Tomlinson 11
19 Clinton Portis 11
20 Ronnie Brown 10
21 Earnest Graham 10
22 Tim Hightower 10
23 Adrian Peterson 10
24 Deuce McAllister 10
25 Marion Barber 10
26 LeRon McClain 10
27 Jonathan Stewart 9
28 Brandon Jacobs 9
29 Jamal Lewis 9
30 Brian Westbrook 9
31 Chris Johnson 9
32 Steve Slaton 9
33 Jamal Lewis 9
34 Pierre Thomas 9
35 Maurice Jones-Drew 9
36 Clinton Portis 9
37 Ryan Grant 8
38 Matt Forte 8
39 Kevin Jones 8
40 Kevin Smith 8
41 Mike Bell 8

For all of Gore's "greatness", I count 41 RB seasons of as many or more Rushing TDs as Gore has had in his best season. The "bad team is limiting his opportunities" argument is dashed by the likes of Kevin Smith (rookie)and Steve Slaton (rookie).

I count 10 or more seasons on the list of RBBC backs with as many or more Rushing TDs as Gore's BEST season.

The 49ers have gone 7-9, 5-11, and 7-9 over the last 3 seasons in one of the worst divisions in football. I believe Gore has been the primary back, in a weak division, in a run-first offense. He is a decent back, but nothing more.

Keep that in mind on draft day as you pull the trigger on the great one!

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Thu May 14, 2009 11:54 pm

Originally posted by Just Russ:
quote:Originally posted by rkulaski:
quote:Originally posted by Just Russ:
Here is a comparison between Gore and Addai over the last 3 seasons...

Gore 45 games, 45 GS, 3833 yards, 4.5YPC, 23 TDs

Addai 43 games, 27 GS, 2697 yards, 4.2YPC, 30 TDs

The only thing I see better is YPC. Total yards is a result of him having no passing game and a total reliance on the run. Addai still has more TDs which wash Gore's advantage in yards. Wow, I hope others look at these stats and think Addai is as good a rb as Gore. I actually thought Addai was going to be a special rb coming out of college.

I wonder what Gore's stats would've been last year in a Colts' uniform and what Addai would've done last year as a 49er. [/QUOTE]What about Gore's 23 TDs makes him great in your mind?

Here are the RBs who have had more rushing TDs in a season in the last 3 years:

1 LaDainian Tomlinson 28
2 DeAngelo Williams 18
3 Michael Turner 17
4 Larry Johnson 17
5 LaDainian Tomlinson15
6 Brandon Jacobs 15
7 LenDale White 15
8 Marion Barber 14
9 Thomas Jones 13
10 Steven Jackson rb 13
11 Maurice Jones-Drew 13
12 Willie Parker 13
13 Corey Dillon 13
14 Joseph Addai 12
15 Adrian Peterson 12
16 Rudi Johnson 12
17 Maurice Jones-Drew 11
18 LaDainian Tomlinson 11
19 Clinton Portis 11
20 Ronnie Brown 10
21 Earnest Graham 10
22 Tim Hightower 10
23 Adrian Peterson 10
24 Deuce McAllister 10
25 Marion Barber 10
26 LeRon McClain 10
27 Jonathan Stewart 9
28 Brandon Jacobs 9
29 Jamal Lewis 9
30 Brian Westbrook 9
31 Chris Johnson 9
32 Steve Slaton 9
33 Jamal Lewis 9
34 Pierre Thomas 9
35 Maurice Jones-Drew 9
36 Clinton Portis 9
37 Ryan Grant 8
38 Matt Forte 8
39 Kevin Jones 8
40 Kevin Smith 8
41 Mike Bell 8

For all of Gore's "greatness", I count 41 RB seasons of as many or more Rushing TDs as Gore has had in his best season. The "bad team is limiting his opportunities" argument is dashed by the likes of Kevin Smith (rookie)and Steve Slaton (rookie).

I count 10 or more seasons on the list of RBBC backs with as many or more Rushing TDs as Gore's BEST season.

The 49ers have gone 7-9, 5-11, and 7-9 over the last 3 seasons in one of the worst divisions in football. I believe Gore has been the primary back, in a weak division, in a run-first offense. He is a decent back, but nothing more.

Keep that in mind on draft day as you pull the trigger on the great one!

[/QUOTE]Russ, I agree 100%. Gore is over rated and over valued. Gore will not be on any of my teams after the above post.

John

Leroy's Aces · Post by **Leroy's Aces** » Fri May 15, 2009 1:30 am

For all of Addai's "greatness", I count 63 RB or QB (I even count Vick for crying out loud) seasons of as many or more Rushing yards as Addai has averaged over those 3 seasons. And one of those years his team won the friggin' Super Bowl.

Adrian Peterson 1341
Adrian Peterson 1760
Ahman Green 1059
Brandon Jacobs 1089
Brandon Jacobs 1009
Brian Westbrook 936
Brian Westbrook 1333
Brian Westbrook 1217
Chester Taylor 1216
Chris Johnson 1228
Clinton Portis 1487
Clinton Portis 1262
DeAngelo Williams 1515
Derrick Ward 1025
Deuce McAllister 1057
Earnest Graham 898
Edgerrin James 1222
Edgerrin James 1159
Frank Gore 1036
Frank Gore 1102
Frank Gore 1695
Fred Taylor 1202
Fred Taylor 1146
Jamal Lewis 1002
Jamal Lewis 1304
Jamal Lewis 1132
Julius Jones 1084
Justin Fargas 1009
Kevin Smith 976
LaDainian Tomlinson 1110
LaDainian Tomlinson 1474
LaDainian Tomlinson 1815
Ladell Betts 1154
Larry Johnson 1789
LenDale White 1110
Le'Ron McClain 902
Marion Barber 975
Marshawn Lynch 1036
Marshawn Lynch 1115
Matt Forte 1238
Maurice Jones-Drew 941
Michael Turner 1699
Michael Vick 1039
Ronnie Brown 916
Ronnie Brown 1008
Rudi Johnson 1309
Ryan Grant 1203
Ryan Grant 956
Steve Slaton 1282
Steven Jackson 1042
Steven Jackson 1002
Steven Jackson 1528
Tatum Bell 1025
Thomas Jones 1312
Thomas Jones 1119
Thomas Jones 1210
Tiki Barber 1662
Travis Henry 1211
Warrick Dunn 1140
Willie Parker 1316
Willie Parker 1494
Willis McGahee 1207
Willis McGahee 990

How many of them had another running back drafted in the first round due to dissatisfaction over the incumbent starter?