Let's Compare High-Stakes Fantasy Football Contests

[Greg Ambrosius]

With so much time on our hands now, I thought it would make sense to do a comparison of the High-Stakes Fantasy Football competition out there and let prospective owners make their decisions based on the facts and nothing but the facts. The High-Stakes market now has four options for players and the NFFC has two of them: NFFC Classic and NFFC Primetime.

I’m not trying to form opinions for people with this thread, just looking at the pure facts, the ROI on the various contests and the game formats. I’m sure everyone can make their own decisions on the draft venues, league setups, league prizes and odds of winning the overall titles without my help. It’s all here in black and white.

All I’ve done is take the costs off each web site, the prizes off each web site and put them down here. I did not take into account the discounts that each game operator is offering or special deals because really that’s not of a concern to the players. Those are promotional expenses for the game operators and shouldn’t be factored into the payout percentages.

So let’s look at the four games:
NFFC Classic: $100,000 grand prize
NFFC Primetime: $100,000 grand prize
WCOFF: $300,000 grand prize
FFPC: $200,000 grand prize

Pure facts of each contest:
Projected # of Main Event Teams:
NFFC Classic: 322
NFFC Primetime: 336
WCOFF: 1,200
FFPC: 660

Cost Per Entry:
NFFC Classic: $1,400
NFFC Primetime: $1,400
WCOFF: $1,850
FFPC: $1,550

Events Fee:
NFFC Classic: $50
NFFC Primetime: $50
WCOFF: $150
FFPC: $125

Co-Manager Fee:
NFFC Classic: $50
NFFC Primetime: $50
WCOFF: $75
FFPC: $75

# of Teams Per League:
NFFC Classic: 14
NFFC Primetime: 12
WCOFF: 12
FFPC: 12

Weeks of Regular Season Play:
NFFC Classic: 13 weeks
NFFC Primetime: 13 weeks
WCOFF: 11 weeks; 2 weeks of playoffs for four teams
FFPC: 11 weeks; 2 weeks of playoffs for four teams

League Prizes:
NFFC Classic: $5,000, $2,500, $1,250
NFFC Primetime: $5,000, $2,500, $700
WCOFF: $5,500, $1,500, $500 ($1250 to h2h champ and $1250 to most points champ)
FFPC: $4,000, $1,500, $500 ($2,000 to h2h champ and $2,000 to most points champ)

Projected Revenue & Projected Prizes:
NFFC Classic: $450,800 and $341,450
NFFC Primetime: $470,400 and $369,800
WCOFF: $2,200,000 and $1,466,250
FFPC: $1,023,000 and $800,000

Payout Percentage:
NFFC Classic: 75.70%
NFFC Primetime: 78.60%
WCOFF: 66.0%
FFPC: 78.20%

Venues for Live Events:
NFFC Classic: Las Vegas, New York, Chicago, Online on Sept. 3rd
NFFC Primetime: Las Vegas, New York, Chicago, Online on Sept. 3; Sept. 9-10 in Las Vegas and Online
WCOFF: Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Chicago, Florida on Sept. 9-10
FFPC: Las Vegas and Online Sept. 9-10

Those are the black-and-white facts and I think everyone should see those as they make their decisions going forward. Now obviously not everyone is going to reach their targeted number of teams and thus the payout percentages could be greater than what is listed here. The NFFC Classic has sold out only once since 2004 and thus we’ve paid 80% or higher the majority of our seven seasons; same with NFFC Primetime the last three years. The WCOFF also has paid more than 66% the last three years because they haven’t come close to 1,200 teams and FFPC didn’t sell out in 2008 and 2009, thus paying higher than their projected 78.2%.

But if everyone reached their goals – and obviously everyone is trying to do that or they wouldn’t guarantee these prizes at these levels – then you can see where the best ROI is. And it makes sense for everyone to examine these numbers.

Other areas to look at:
Playoff formats: If you like the 11-game regular season and that 2-week league playoff for a difference of $4,000 or $2,500 on one game, then WCOFF and FFPC is the format for you. If you like the most dominant team in your league during the regular season winning the most money after 13 weeks of action, then both NFFC contests are for you. You can win $5,000 in each of those formats. In the FFPC, you can win up to $6,000; in the WCOFF you can win up to $7,000. As for second place, runner-up in both NFFC leagues is guaranteed $2,500, but only $1,500 is guaranteed in the FFPC and WCOFF.

Entry Fees: Not a big difference between the contests outside of WCOFF’s $1,850 price. League prizes based on entry fees are as follows: NFFC Classic 44.6%; NFFC Primetime 48.8%; WCOFF 45.0%; FFPC 53.7%.

Overall Prizes: To increase league prizes, FFPC chose to increase number of teams from 312 in 2010 to 660 this year and increase the grand prize to $200,000. But second place overall is just $12,500, lower than every other contest. Here’s a look at the overall prizes AFTER the big grand prize and how they compare:

NFFC Classic: 322 teams: $36,000
NFFC Primetime: 336 teams: $36,000
WCOFF: 1,200 teams, $100,000+ (I’ll admit I don’t understand the value of those Gold and Silver Passports)
FFPC: 660 teams, $51,000

KDS and 3RR: I forgot to add this originally, but both NFFC events are the only contests in the industry to offer Third Round Reversal and KDS. 3RR has proven to balance out the power among all draft spots in both the 14-team and 12-team formats, while KDS puts the power of draft spot selection back where it belongs, in the hands of the players not the game operators. FFPC and WCOFF both have straight 12-team serpentine drafts for all of their contests where owners take what draft spots they are given.

I think these facts lead to an intelligent conversation on what each game offers and I hope we can have it here. Obviously the biggest question that consumers have is getting paid on time and in full. Are there guarantees that every game operator listed here can do that this year? You’d hope so, but it’s up to the game operators to ensure that confidence with their proven financial backing, past history and setups for 2011. If you have any concerns about any of the parties – heck, including us – you should seriously look at the other options. That’s the beauty of this game: There are plenty of good games you can trust in already out there.

Let’s keep this thread informative and above board as much as possible. I think this is a worthwhile discussion and certainly “opens the books” as the NFLPA has requested on this space. I have the same data for the Online Championship contests, which I will present shortly. But let’s start here and work on what you like, dislike and would like improved about any of these contests. It should be a fun discussion. Thanks all.

[ May 20, 2011, 08:26 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

[King of Queens]

[EDIT: additional information was obtained making this post inaccurate. Entry was removed.]

[ May 18, 2011, 08:25 PM: Message edited by: King of Queens ]

[King of Queens]

Another important consideration with HSFF main events is the maximum possible league prize (as a multiple of the entry fee). Here's what I show:

NFFC Classic
$1,400 entry fee
$5,000 maximum league prize
3.6x

NFFC Primetime
$1,400 entry fee
$5,000 maximum league prize
3.6x

WCOFF
$1,850 entry fee
$8,000 maximum league prize
4.3x

FFPC
$1,550 entry fee
$6,000 maximum league prize
3.9x

By this, it appears that the NFFC is the worst deal. However, based on the playoff systems in each event, the NFFC has the easiest path to achieve the maximum league prize. If you're dominating the league through 11 weeks (best record and most points in the league), then have a bad Week 12, you're barely getting your money back in the FFPC ($2,000 or $2,500 vs. $1,550 entry fee) and WCOFF ($2,500 or $3,000 vs. $1,850 entry fee). In the NFFC, you're still in the driver's seat for the full $5,000 prize. It's a huge deal to me, and will definitely impact my main event entries.

[King of Queens]

Another important distinction between the events: the NFFC and WCOFF allow you to "sweep" the H2H and points titles, while the FFPC does not. I understand the game operator's logic is to award as many teams as possible (keeps them coming back!). However, I feel that an extra-special regular season deserves a sweep of the prizes.

[King of Queens]

Two more points regarding ROI and payout percentages.

1. Although Greg chose not to include events fees, co-managers fees, and discounts in his calculations, they are important considerations for every individual. Some may choose to take advantage of early bird specials or multi-team packages that eliminate many of these fees. For example, the FFPC offers the opportunity to draft a main event team online and NOT pay the events fee. The NFFC is running a limited-time promotion in which they will waive events/co-manager fees if you buy two main events teams. WCOFF has a second team discount, as does the FFPC. As a consumer, it is important to be aware of specials in order to get the best deal for YOU.

2. The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (or UIGEA) states the following:

All prizes and awards offered to winning participants are established and made known to the participants in advance of the game or contest and their value is not determined by the number of participants or the amount of any fees paid by those participants.

Thus, the players always know what the "worst-case" payout percentage will be. The best-case, for the players, is if the operator goes forward with the contest but with fewer than anticipated entries. With 4 main events vying for 2,500 entries, this will almost certainly be the case in 2011.

[DoubleG]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

I’m not trying to form opinions for people with this thread, just looking at the pure facts, the ROI on the various contests and the game formats. I’m sure everyone can make their own decisions on the draft venues, league setups, league prizes and odds of winning the overall titles without my help. It’s all here in black and white. Greg - When considering ROI, one has to factor in the probability of actually receiving your money if you win. Anyone can offer a fantastic ROI if they are running a ponzi/pyramid scheme.

Big props to the NFFC for paying out every year. Same with FFPC.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Nice analysis Glenn. Very fair and noteworthy analysis for consumers. Honest and balanced coverage, like Fox News proclaims!!

[Glenneration X]

Thanks for putting this together for us Greg and thanks for your added input Glenn.

As you guys both know, I've played all three contests each of my couple years as a high stakes fantasy customer. I've enjoyed all three contests as each has brought something different that I appreciate to the table. I know that not everyone is capable or willing to dedicate the time and/or money necessary to compete in all three. Choices are made.

As many are aware, the WCOFF currently has issues much more important to the fantasy player than ROI. How they resolve those issues will go a long way towards determining what choices customers make if they aren't already made. The NFFC moving to a pair of $100K contests and two weekends and the FFPC doubling their guaranteed overall prize to $200K and increasing their league prizes further changes the dynamics of the high stakes world.

I'm very interested in seeing how the fantasy landscape plays out this year with the WCOFF having their issues and both the NFFC and FFPC making significant moves and changes to get a bigger share of the market. With the lockout throwing an additional twist into the mix, it should be fascinating to see where everyone stands come September.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Glenneration X:
Thanks for putting this together for us Greg and thanks for your added input Glenn.

As you guys both know, I've played all three contests each of my couple years as a high stakes fantasy customer. I've enjoyed all three contests as each has brought something different that I appreciate to the table. I know that not everyone is capable or willing to dedicate the time and/or money necessary to compete in all three. Choices are made.

As many are aware, the WCOFF currently has issues much more important to the fantasy player than ROI. How they resolve those issues will go a long way towards determining what choices customers make if they aren't already made. The NFFC moving to a pair of $100K contests and two weekends and the FFPC doubling their guaranteed overall prize to $200K and increasing their league prizes further changes the dynamics of the high stakes world.

I'm very interested in seeing how the fantasy landscape plays out this year with the WCOFF having their issues and both the NFFC and FFPC making significant moves and changes to get a bigger share of the market. With the lockout throwing an additional twist into the mix, it should be fascinating to see where everyone stands come September. You're absolutely right Glenn, something is going to have to give this year in the HSFF market and the consumers will make that choice happen. As I've stated previously, in 2010 there were less than 1,500 teams among the four Main Event contests and this year the plans for all four contests call for 2,500+ teams. With the lockout now in place, there's no way that all four contests reach their goals. It's just not possible because there just aren't that many high-stakes players in our industry at this point.

As for WCOFF, it's well-known that many players -- including some who play here in the NFFC -- haven't been paid yet for 2010. The total is in the hundreds of thousands of dollars and players are rightfully upset. That's what has led us and the FFPC to step up and fill the apparent void. Dustin has said there is a "transaction" that will be announced in June and players seem to be awaiting that word and their prize payouts. Hopefully for our industry it will happen and trust me I want to see everyone get paid in full. It does no one any good to have players go unpaid; we've seen this too many times in this area of the market and it's terrible. The game operators have to be held accountable for their decisions and we are no different.

Let's see what June brings from the WCOFF and the NFL. I have a feeling we'll have a better view of the landscape in a few short weeks. But from our standpoint, we're just trying to take care of business and meet the goals we've set in all of our contests.

[Diesel]

I understand that you are being fair by posting all 3 events in this thread, but the NFFC and FFPC are the only two left that can be trusted, in my opinion. I hope the WCOFF can prove over time that they will fix their financial problem, but in my experience, when I see a company at the point the WCOFF is in right now, you'll see a final phase where they are "treading water"...This never ends well. Again, I hope they prove me wrong, but the HSFF business is not a huge profit business. Getting out of a hole like the one they are in would take an acquisition by Donald Trump to get them out of this.