The Targeted Player Plan

richieprimo
Posts: 818
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 6:00 pm

The Targeted Player Plan

Post by richieprimo » Sat Sep 20, 2008 5:00 am

Slithery One...On the serious note, I did have a few picks in mind on Draft Day.

At 1.13 I was hoping for Lynch(1.8) or T.O.(1.12) and wound up with...eeewww...Lumpy Johnson

At 2.2 I wanted A. Johnson(2.1) and settled for R.Wayne (not too bad)

Was kinda happy with Fast Willie at 4.13 and McNabb at 5.2 (if he can stay on the field)

The rest is as they say...equine excrement
Paying Top Dollar For All 12 and 10 cent Superhero Comics. Send PM...You may have money packed in your garage or attic.

Sandman62
Posts: 3538
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2008 6:00 pm
Location: RI

The Targeted Player Plan

Post by Sandman62 » Sun Sep 21, 2008 1:32 am

My son and I did dozens of mock drafts all summer to get a feel for who would go where. Based on those, we set our NBC KDS at 7, figuring we could get either Gore, MBIII or Portis, yet still land 2 top WRs in rounds 2 and 3. We also knew we wanted Cutler and were prepared to pay a 5th round pick for him, after seeing him go in the 6th or 7th in so many mocks. Based on this league's scoring system, we went into the draft willing to be weak at RB2 in exchange for strength at RB1, WR1, WR2 and QB.

In round 1, we had our choice of either of our desired RBs and we took MBIII; but it was close between him and Gore. We really liked Gore's fantasy playoff schedule much better than Barber's; but in the end, we opted for "Let's try to GET there first". ;)

For our WR1, we targeted Colston, mainly based on him having more receptions in his first 2 years than any other NFL receiver (or something like that). Also the fact that he's a beast and plays for a powerful offense whose D isn't the greatest. Another WR "strategy" we employed - tho we have no idea if it actually worked or was just plain luck - was that my son wore his Housh jersey and I wore my Braylon, in the hopes that people might think we wanted them badly and might take them before Colston. Again, could be pure coincidence, but at 2.04 and 2.05, they both went, right before us. Of course, the Coston injury hurts, seeing we spent our 2nd round pick on him. But if we can survive until his return, hopefully he will repay us.

We also targeted Boldin as our WR2, as we feel like he's really more like the last of the WR1s. Yet again and again, we saw him fall in mocks, so we felt confident from the 7th draft spot in the NBC that we could land him (and we did).

With our first 3 draft picks going according to plan, the 4th round was planned to be a BPA. Had another strong WR or RB fallen to us there, we would've taken him. But instead, we were faced with starting what we felt would've been the next tier of either WR or RB. Rather than do that, w/ only 1 TE off the board (Witten), we opted to take Winslow. We never take TEs this early, but when value stares you in the face, you take advantage.

Cutler was our 5th round pick, and was probably a round or 2 before anyone else would've drafted him. But everything we'd read about his being set for a breakout year made the man-crush strong. :D

In the 6th, we finally took our RB2. In most of the mocks we'd done, Young seemed to fall that late (along w/ guys like Edge, Lendale). I should have my head examined for taking a Denver RB tho (after having played the Bell/Bell/Anderson game a few years ago!). But we also knew we could pickup Andre Hall many rounds later. (Of course, little did we know that Pittman would rob all the TDs! :( ) Thank God Julius was still there in the 7th for our RB3. He was another RB2/3 in our opinion whose value was way down w/ Morris being named the starter. But we felt that Julius would ultimately learn the SEA system and within a month or so pass Morris as the starter. Of course, injuries have a way of expediting things sometimes. ;) And along w/ a helpful schedule in weeks 2 and 3, Julius is off to a nice start. Hopefully he can secure the job all season and be our RB2.

Our pre-draft plan also included targeting our RB1's handcuff after we had secured all of the above positions. So we penciled in Felix for round 9 right after we drafted MBIII in round 1. Unfortunately, he went 1 pick before us (someone looking on our sheet?). So we took Chester Taylor, finding it unbelievable that, w/ him being the overall 1st pick in our draft, his owner hadn't gone after him already? (We're starting him this week, whether AP plays or not.)

Another "strategy" we employed was targeting players w/ older, perhaps more injury-prone players, in front of them. As much of a beast as TO is (and we've had him as our top keeper in another league for 5 years, so we do love him :D ), we targeted Crayton as our WR3. A strong offense w/ a 34 (or 35?) year old in front of him = big potential upside. Along the same line, we targeted Bryant Johnson, w/ the mid-30s Bruce in front of him. We also targeted both Hilliard and Bryant, w/ the even older, more fragile Galloway in front of them. We drafted all 4 of them. :D

Lastly, for a very late round in the draft, we targeted non-high-profile backup RBs whose starters in front of them are older and maybe more fragile: Hightower (Edge), Pierre (Deuce) and Foster (Gore). We ended up w/ Foster in the 16th.

So in summary, we had a pretty deep master plan of targeted players, and we got an awful lot of them. So far, so good. Fingers crossed from here on, and anxiously awaiting Colston's return so we can stop struggling w/ our flex decision so much each week, between: Hilliard, Bryant, Young and now CTaylor.

Mike Costaglio
Posts: 146
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2006 6:00 pm

The Targeted Player Plan

Post by Mike Costaglio » Sun Sep 21, 2008 4:24 am

Plan? Looks like the basic ADP draft to me. LOL

Sandman62
Posts: 3538
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2008 6:00 pm
Location: RI

The Targeted Player Plan

Post by Sandman62 » Sun Sep 21, 2008 4:32 am

Perhaps, but we DID target specific players and get them. Wasn't that the question asked in this thread?
... identify a few players at each respective position that they want and then do their utmost to procure those players during the draft.He didn't really ask WHY we targeted players, which it would stand to reason that people's perceived value (yes, likely related to ADP) would factor into WHY we targeted certain players.

Wouldn't the "basic ADP draft" just take whomever had the best value at each point in the draft based on ADP? If so, then specific players would not be on our watch list, would they? For instance, at draft time, was Cutler a "good" pick in rd. 5 based on his ADP in mocks? (doubtful, as if he'd tanked, we'd be telling ourselves "we reached in the 5th for him".) I would offer that our "man crush" had more to do w/ us picking him there than his ADP. :D

[ September 21, 2008, 10:39 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

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