What's different in 2011?

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Thu Nov 03, 2011 1:48 pm

I was thinking about how fantasy football has changed over the past few years and actually came to a couple of conclusions.

1. Fewer stud players. It seems like there are so many teams spreading the ball around to a LOT more players than they used to. We have 3rd down backs, goal line backs, change of pace guys. At WR you have many teams going 4 deep and really spreading the ball around. You even have teams consistently using 2 TE's.

2. More depth. For the same reasons above you have far more players who contribute to fantasy production. It sounds good on the surface but in reality it makes sit/start decisions much more difficult if not kind of random. There are just a lot more players with similar production who could go off any week. This really makes setting starting lineups a very frustrating task.

3. Waiver wire - more teams seem to be keeping information away from the media. Teams are not being truthful about who is injured and we are just left guessing. It seems that coaching has become more about misinformation thus making waiver wire work more difficult.

4. Committees - they aren't just two deep anymore. New Orleans uses 3 RB's, now it looks like NE has 4. Teams like Pittsburgh and New Orleans use 4 WR's in most games. There is no way of knowing who they will go to game to game.

5. Injuries - they always seem bad - every year. It seems like we have less IR players this year but far more hamstring injuries. Training camps DO matter.

6. It's a passing league - QB production is going through the roof. The overall points at QB are much higher than they used to be.

7. Information - it's readily available. You don't have to do much of anything on your own anymore. There is tons of information out there on the web for anyone was has $19.99. The best fantasy players still prep but the average ones are much better prepared.

I know these are just random thoughts but it's interesting to watch how different this game is from a few years ago.

Wayne

[ November 03, 2011, 07:54 PM: Message edited by: Coltsfan ]

Diesel · Post by **Diesel** » Thu Nov 03, 2011 11:18 pm

I always thought there was no need to pay for information because there's always been information to be found for free. It just takes a little more leg work. However, there comes a time when you have to keep up with the Jones', and I feel that if you are paying $650+ for any league, another $20-$40 for updated, quick info is essential.

I also think that after the first round, ADP can be thrown out the window. I used to use the low priced drafts as ADP reference...Not anynore. I still do the low priced drafts at the beignning of the pre season, but I do that to get a good deep knowledge of players taken from top to bottom...Not where they will be drafted. Every draft is different, and with the amount of "non-stud" players producing more often than in the past, any draft you do today has nothing in common with a draft you'd do tomorrow.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:20 am

Good post, Wayne. Looking at your list, No. 7 has been constantly evolving over the years. The increased amount of free information has grown by leaps and bounds. Fantasy sports has really become an Internet game. The days of being able to gain a leg up on your competition due to your ability to procure information has become increasingly difficult.

No. 1 is what really jumps out at me, though. There seem to be fewer stud talents that you can consistently depend on. It's a crazy league when Laurent Robinson outproduces Miles Austin or Eric Decker makes Vincent Jackson look bad. That kind of thing seems to happen more and more. That's one of the reasons why I've strongly advocated getting a top QB if possible. Sure, you can hit on a lesser player here or there and top players can have bad weeks like everyone else, but with so much guessing involved why not just take a stud and enjoy the ride?

It's why I really liked the idea of taking Aaron Rodgers midway through the first round this year. It's also why I believe the top part of the first round has an advantage and why 3RR (shameless NFFC plug inserted here

) is so beneficial. If you landed Foster, Peterson, Rice or McCoy, for example, you were in such a strong position (even taking Foster's early season hamstring issue into account). There's so little guessing to do as the season goes along if you can secure a player like that.

It's still a great game and I love it but there's no doubt fantasy football has really evolved into a week-to-week proposition. The point being there are fewer players you can trust over the long haul so you do what you can each week to get you the points you need. It's certainly made the game more intense and a lot more nerve-wracking than it was 5-10 years ago.

da bears · Post by **da bears** » Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:23 am

Good stuff Wayne. No doubt the sit/start decisions seem tougher this year especially in the 12-team leagues. I must admit thats why I still like the 14-team format more because there are fewer weekly lineup decisions.

renman · Post by **renman** » Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:26 am

Tom,

You make a great points. To me, FF is always a constantly evolving entity. In 2002 we were talking about how different things were compared to 1995. Being ahead of the trends and zigging when everyone else is zagging is what separates the better players from the pack.

Obviously bad luck can kill a team in any particular league or season. But the players who work and prepare hardest who make the right calls, scout and target the right guys, avoid the proper land mines, over the larger sample, end up having the better results.

[ November 04, 2011, 08:26 AM: Message edited by: Renman ]

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:54 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

No. 1 is what really jumps out at me, though. There seem to be fewer stud talents that you can consistently depend on. It's a crazy league when Laurent Robinson outproduces Miles Austin or Eric Decker makes Vincent Jackson look bad. That kind of thing seems to happen more and more. That's one of the reasons why I've strongly advocated getting a top QB if possible. Sure, you can hit on a lesser player here or there and top players can have bad weeks like everyone else, but with so much guessing involved why not just take a stud and enjoy the ride?

This is precisely why you need to push QB's back. Solid steady players are increasingly flighty these days so you need to grab as many as you can and see what sticks.

For example : (V.Jackson, M.Wallace and Eli (8th rd) or V.Jackson, Vick and Burleson (8th rd) ?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:57 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

No. 1 is what really jumps out at me, though. There seem to be fewer stud talents that you can consistently depend on. It's a crazy league when Laurent Robinson outproduces Miles Austin or Eric Decker makes Vincent Jackson look bad. That kind of thing seems to happen more and more. That's one of the reasons why I've strongly advocated getting a top QB if possible. Sure, you can hit on a lesser player here or there and top players can have bad weeks like everyone else, but with so much guessing involved why not just take a stud and enjoy the ride?

This is precisely why you need to push QB's back. Solid steady players are increasingly flighty these days so you need to grab as many as you can and see what sticks.

For example : (V.Jackson, M.Wallace and Eli (8th rd) or V.Jackson, Vick and Burleson (8th rd) ? [/QUOTE]What about Rodgers/Jennings/Welker?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:22 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

No. 1 is what really jumps out at me, though. There seem to be fewer stud talents that you can consistently depend on. It's a crazy league when Laurent Robinson outproduces Miles Austin or Eric Decker makes Vincent Jackson look bad. That kind of thing seems to happen more and more. That's one of the reasons why I've strongly advocated getting a top QB if possible. Sure, you can hit on a lesser player here or there and top players can have bad weeks like everyone else, but with so much guessing involved why not just take a stud and enjoy the ride?

This is precisely why you need to push QB's back. Solid steady players are increasingly flighty these days so you need to grab as many as you can and see what sticks.

For example : (V.Jackson, M.Wallace and Eli (8th rd) or V.Jackson, Vick and Burleson (8th rd) ? [/QUOTE]What about Rodgers/Jennings/Welker? [/QUOTE]Well of course if you're clairvoyant you can cherry pick every round. But if you're not... If you need to hit on 3 RB/WR's in the 1st 4 rds to win it all then it pays to have 4 bullets in the chamber instead of 3.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:26 am

IOW, fantasy football is now about on the same LUCK level as lottery scratch tickets.

All the draft prep, waiver transactions and astute lineup decisions go out the window when each week virtual nobodies - including DSTs - go off every week while numerous perceived-studs fail to break double digits.

We will seriously reconsider continuing high stakes games next year with this environment.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:26 am

I was just having some fun, Steve. But my approach is to secure as many stud talents as possible in the early rounds. That's especially true with regard to the first point Wayne made and I expounded upon. With fewer and fewer plug-and-play options available I want to get as many as I can. The fewer weekly lineup decisions I have to make - especially at critical positions - the happier I am. And we all know the NFL has become a passing league and yes that means you can mine for production with lesser players. But it also means the truly elite players will get you considerably more production and typically on a more consistent basis. Rodgers is the prime example of that this season.

Now, I'm not taking Rodgers over a stud RB because I still believe having at least one stud RB on your roster is a huge asset in winning a fantasy championship. But once the stud RBs are gone, if the choice is between Rodgers and an elite WR such as Megatron or a healthy Andre Johnson, I'm going Rodgers.