Ahhh Fooey on the early QB's...
Cam Newton
Fred Jacskon
Darren Sproles
Wes Welker
A.Boldin
Steve Smith
J.Graham or Hernandez or Pettigrew
KICKER
DEFENSE
Now that's an NFFC lineup. Enter any flex you'd like. Who needs a 1st round pick? Who need a stud QB in the first round? Why even study? Ahhhh fooey.
What's different in 2011?
What's different in 2011?
*Ranked #1 Average Fantasy Football Player in the Nation 2004-2013
"Fantasy sports are all about LUCK. Except when I win."
"Fantasy sports are all about LUCK. Except when I win."
-
King of Queens
- Posts: 5262
- Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 6:00 pm
What's different in 2011?
Originally posted by Sandman62:
IOW, fantasy football is now about on the same LUCK level as lottery scratch tickets.
All the draft prep, waiver transactions and astute lineup decisions go out the window when each week virtual nobodies - including DSTs - go off every week while numerous perceived-studs fail to break double digits.
We will seriously reconsider continuing high stakes games next year with this environment. Give it another year, Mike. With the lockout and "condensed" off-season, this degree of uncertainty should have been anticipated.
Now if it's like this again next season, I'll be doing some re-evaluation myself
IOW, fantasy football is now about on the same LUCK level as lottery scratch tickets.
All the draft prep, waiver transactions and astute lineup decisions go out the window when each week virtual nobodies - including DSTs - go off every week while numerous perceived-studs fail to break double digits. We will seriously reconsider continuing high stakes games next year with this environment. Give it another year, Mike. With the lockout and "condensed" off-season, this degree of uncertainty should have been anticipated.
Now if it's like this again next season, I'll be doing some re-evaluation myself
What's different in 2011?
Thanks Glenn. We did anticipate some of this given the lockout. But last year was pretty similar, and with no lockout. Too easy to negate the first few rounds of picks = what's the point of research? 
What's different in 2011?
Originally posted by Sandman62:
Thanks Glenn. We did anticipate some of this given the lockout. But last year was pretty similar, and with no lockout. Too easy to negate the first few rounds of picks = what's the point of research? The research will always matter. You aren't going to get it right every time, you can get the right RB but injuries in the O-line can kill his production, you can have the right WR but then his QB gets hurt. Yes that can all wreck your team or your game plan But it's when you do all of this and you nail it - that's what makes it worth while. Joe Blow can walk in off the street and beat me in any given league. But is he going to win 7/10? I think we just have to look at it big picture and set aside when a certain league or even a certain year doesn't go as planned.
Wayne
Thanks Glenn. We did anticipate some of this given the lockout. But last year was pretty similar, and with no lockout. Too easy to negate the first few rounds of picks = what's the point of research?
The research will always matter. You aren't going to get it right every time, you can get the right RB but injuries in the O-line can kill his production, you can have the right WR but then his QB gets hurt. Yes that can all wreck your team or your game plan But it's when you do all of this and you nail it - that's what makes it worth while. Joe Blow can walk in off the street and beat me in any given league. But is he going to win 7/10? I think we just have to look at it big picture and set aside when a certain league or even a certain year doesn't go as planned.Wayne
What's different in 2011?
Of course no probs Tom Hey if you launch a QB early you can't miss in rds 2-4. If you do miss you may be one or even two impact players behind the teams that also landed Eli or Cam or even Cutler out there. Those teams will be hard to catch. Now those teams DON'T have to be perfect - you do though.
What's different in 2011?
Originally posted by Sandman62:
IOW, fantasy football is now about on the same LUCK level as lottery scratch tickets. All the draft prep, waiver transactions and astute lineup decisions go out the window when each week virtual nobodies - including DSTs - go off every week while numerous perceived-studs fail to break double digits.
We will seriously reconsider continuing high stakes games next year with this environment. I think a skilled player (and you are in my opinion), who prepares hard, runs his team well, is on top of transactions, etc is going to have successful results 5 to 6 seasons out of 10 . And you hope (assuming it is high stakes) you have a chance once out of those 5 to 6 seasons to have a shot at a massive prize.
To me, that is how it has to go. The unfortunate reality of this above example is that 4 or 5 times out of every 10 the team is going to fall flat on it's face or at the very least, no cash.
If it isn't for the bad years, the good years wont feel that good.
[ November 04, 2011, 10:59 AM: Message edited by: Renman ]
IOW, fantasy football is now about on the same LUCK level as lottery scratch tickets.
All the draft prep, waiver transactions and astute lineup decisions go out the window when each week virtual nobodies - including DSTs - go off every week while numerous perceived-studs fail to break double digits. We will seriously reconsider continuing high stakes games next year with this environment. I think a skilled player (and you are in my opinion), who prepares hard, runs his team well, is on top of transactions, etc is going to have successful results 5 to 6 seasons out of 10 . And you hope (assuming it is high stakes) you have a chance once out of those 5 to 6 seasons to have a shot at a massive prize.
To me, that is how it has to go. The unfortunate reality of this above example is that 4 or 5 times out of every 10 the team is going to fall flat on it's face or at the very least, no cash.
If it isn't for the bad years, the good years wont feel that good.
[ November 04, 2011, 10:59 AM: Message edited by: Renman ]
What's different in 2011?
I agree with that James. Even high stakes card players don't win ALL the time. And they probably get just as annoyed when some young punk sucks out on them with inferior hands as we do getting clobbered by NFL nobodies while our drafted "studs" sh.t the bed!
We're pretty much out of the running already in 6 of 9 NFFC leagues. Thankfully, one of the 3 we still have a shot in is at least a Super - so there's still a chance to come out ahead this year, albeit requiring some good luck against some very good players.
This probably would fit better in Tom's weekly thread, but here's just a sample from this past week on how downright unpredictable fantasy football has become, from a weekly blog I do for a group of friends who like to follow our high stakes adventures.
The Scale Has Tilted From Skill To Luck In This Hobby
I thought I’d take a quick look at this week’s ridiculous random scoring, as IMO, fantasy football the past couple years seems to be less about good research, good drafts, well-justified lineup decisions, etc. and more about who gets luckiest with their mid-round picks and waiver wire acquisitions. We don’t even own most of these players, but still feel for their owners’ likely frustration. All week long, the media hypes up the great matchups some players have, only to disappoint anyway.
We doubt we’ll continue with high-stakes leagues next year, given that the luck factor seems to now be about on par with buying lottery tickets. Right now, we’re heavily leaning towards just doing local leagues again.
Some sickening week 8 scoring observations
WR
• Nobodies who scored like studs: Victor Cruz (who nearly doubled Nicks’ day, even though Nicks wasn’t injured until late in the 4th quarter), and other “household names” like Antonio Brown, Laurent Robinson, Jonathan Baldwin and Eric Decker all scored 19-23 points. Super-nobodies, Titus Young and Ben Obomanu, even had 16.6 and 14.7, respectively.
• Studs who scored like nobodies: Bowe, Welker, Marshall, Colston and VJax were all between 7.9-10; DeSean, Dez, Austin and Mike Thomas scored just 5.4-6.1!
RB
• The Good: Despite 7 true top RBs delivering 19-33 points, someone named Curtis Brinkley (formerly married to Billy Joel? ?) scored 16.2 and season-starting backups Jackie Battle, Maurice Morris, Javon Ringer and Mewelde Moore scored around 11.5-13. Even Donald Brown, Bernard Scott, Chris Ogbannaya, Knowshon Moreno, Kevin Faulk, Marshawn Lynch and Steve Slaton all had 6.7-9.9!
• The Bad: But early-round draftees like Bradshaw and Mendenhall barely broke 11 and 10. DeMarco Murray, coming off a 250+ yard rushing performance, couldn’t break 8 vs. the worst run D in the league. Chris Johnson failed to reach 7.
• The Ugly: Ryan Torain couldn’t score 3 despite being expected to carry the load now with Hightower out for the season. Jacobs couldn’t break 2 in his first week back from injury. Green-Ellis couldn’t break 1, yielding to Kevin Faulk, who just came off the PUP list. And Monterio Hardesty, despite getting the whole load to himself with Hillis inactive, also couldn’t break 1 stinkin’ point (due to injury)! Wow!
QB
• Youth: McCoy, Tebow, Dalton, Painter and Ponder – who almost all came off the waiver wire and combined barely have a season’s experience – all scored more (18-19 points) than Rivers, Brees and Romo’s pathetic 16-17! [Yes, that’s also just 6-7 points more than rookie cellar-dweller Blaine Gabbert!]
• Experience: Brady (21.9), coming off a bye, was unexpectedly, though not shockingly, outscored by Schaub and Fitzpatrick (22-23). Cam, Stafford, Vick, Ben and Eli – almost all drafted after Brady – blew him away, scoring 29-36 each!
TE
• One man’s trash is another’s treasure: Just about the time most owners had dropped Brent Celek and Dallas Clark, they scored 22.4 and 13.7, respectively. Waiver wire wonder, Scott Chandler, and TE2s Fred Davis and Greg Olsen also scored 17+. Even Heath Miller scored 15+!
• This year’s best TE though, Jimmy Graham, failed to break 8 points, and perennial studs, Jason Witten didn’t hit 7 and Vernon Davis didn’t score 6, despite facing STL, PHI and CLE, who are better known for their ability to cover wide receivers than TEs.
DST
• I realize that some top-drafted DSTs were on bye (GB, NYJ, ATL, CHI), but still... 3 of the top 14 NFFC overall scorers this week were DSTs who scored 24-29 points each – and not even ones that were expected/drafted to be reliable starters (DET, BUF, CIN)! The next 2 best DSTs were STL and TEN, both at 16.
• But BAL only scored 8, PIT and NE 7 and DAL 4.
• Can we please remove DSTs (and Ks) from fantasy football? They essentially equate to wildcards in poker, which randomly allow poor hands to prevail when they shouldn’t.
K
• Nothing too extreme here, as 16 points was the top kicker score, but Novak, Lindell, Cundiff, Succop, Bironas, Nugent, Suisham, Hanson, Feely, and Henery all broke 10.
• A couple of this year’s top kickers though were awful: Bailey 1, Kasay 3.
We're pretty much out of the running already in 6 of 9 NFFC leagues. Thankfully, one of the 3 we still have a shot in is at least a Super - so there's still a chance to come out ahead this year, albeit requiring some good luck against some very good players.
This probably would fit better in Tom's weekly thread, but here's just a sample from this past week on how downright unpredictable fantasy football has become, from a weekly blog I do for a group of friends who like to follow our high stakes adventures.
The Scale Has Tilted From Skill To Luck In This Hobby
I thought I’d take a quick look at this week’s ridiculous random scoring, as IMO, fantasy football the past couple years seems to be less about good research, good drafts, well-justified lineup decisions, etc. and more about who gets luckiest with their mid-round picks and waiver wire acquisitions. We don’t even own most of these players, but still feel for their owners’ likely frustration. All week long, the media hypes up the great matchups some players have, only to disappoint anyway.
We doubt we’ll continue with high-stakes leagues next year, given that the luck factor seems to now be about on par with buying lottery tickets.
Right now, we’re heavily leaning towards just doing local leagues again.Some sickening week 8 scoring observations
WR
• Nobodies who scored like studs: Victor Cruz (who nearly doubled Nicks’ day, even though Nicks wasn’t injured until late in the 4th quarter), and other “household names” like Antonio Brown, Laurent Robinson, Jonathan Baldwin and Eric Decker all scored 19-23 points. Super-nobodies, Titus Young and Ben Obomanu, even had 16.6 and 14.7, respectively.
• Studs who scored like nobodies: Bowe, Welker, Marshall, Colston and VJax were all between 7.9-10; DeSean, Dez, Austin and Mike Thomas scored just 5.4-6.1!
RB
• The Good: Despite 7 true top RBs delivering 19-33 points, someone named Curtis Brinkley (formerly married to Billy Joel? ?) scored 16.2 and season-starting backups Jackie Battle, Maurice Morris, Javon Ringer and Mewelde Moore scored around 11.5-13. Even Donald Brown, Bernard Scott, Chris Ogbannaya, Knowshon Moreno, Kevin Faulk, Marshawn Lynch and Steve Slaton all had 6.7-9.9!
• The Bad: But early-round draftees like Bradshaw and Mendenhall barely broke 11 and 10. DeMarco Murray, coming off a 250+ yard rushing performance, couldn’t break 8 vs. the worst run D in the league. Chris Johnson failed to reach 7.
• The Ugly: Ryan Torain couldn’t score 3 despite being expected to carry the load now with Hightower out for the season. Jacobs couldn’t break 2 in his first week back from injury. Green-Ellis couldn’t break 1, yielding to Kevin Faulk, who just came off the PUP list. And Monterio Hardesty, despite getting the whole load to himself with Hillis inactive, also couldn’t break 1 stinkin’ point (due to injury)! Wow!
QB
• Youth: McCoy, Tebow, Dalton, Painter and Ponder – who almost all came off the waiver wire and combined barely have a season’s experience – all scored more (18-19 points) than Rivers, Brees and Romo’s pathetic 16-17! [Yes, that’s also just 6-7 points more than rookie cellar-dweller Blaine Gabbert!]
• Experience: Brady (21.9), coming off a bye, was unexpectedly, though not shockingly, outscored by Schaub and Fitzpatrick (22-23). Cam, Stafford, Vick, Ben and Eli – almost all drafted after Brady – blew him away, scoring 29-36 each!
TE
• One man’s trash is another’s treasure: Just about the time most owners had dropped Brent Celek and Dallas Clark, they scored 22.4 and 13.7, respectively. Waiver wire wonder, Scott Chandler, and TE2s Fred Davis and Greg Olsen also scored 17+. Even Heath Miller scored 15+!
• This year’s best TE though, Jimmy Graham, failed to break 8 points, and perennial studs, Jason Witten didn’t hit 7 and Vernon Davis didn’t score 6, despite facing STL, PHI and CLE, who are better known for their ability to cover wide receivers than TEs.
DST
• I realize that some top-drafted DSTs were on bye (GB, NYJ, ATL, CHI), but still... 3 of the top 14 NFFC overall scorers this week were DSTs who scored 24-29 points each – and not even ones that were expected/drafted to be reliable starters (DET, BUF, CIN)! The next 2 best DSTs were STL and TEN, both at 16.
• But BAL only scored 8, PIT and NE 7 and DAL 4.
• Can we please remove DSTs (and Ks) from fantasy football? They essentially equate to wildcards in poker, which randomly allow poor hands to prevail when they shouldn’t.
K
• Nothing too extreme here, as 16 points was the top kicker score, but Novak, Lindell, Cundiff, Succop, Bironas, Nugent, Suisham, Hanson, Feely, and Henery all broke 10.
• A couple of this year’s top kickers though were awful: Bailey 1, Kasay 3.
What's different in 2011?
Sandman,
I get what you are saying. I guess "thats why they play the games." It would be boring if the teams and lineups who are projected to score the highest just automatically won.
A couple weeks ago I was venting about maybe being the only Aaron Rodgers owner who was 0-7.
Here is my draft from the 8th spot in an NFFC 12 teamer.
A. Johnson
A. Rodgers
Felix Jones
Stevie Johnson
S. Greene (at the time I thought was a steal)
Owen Daniels
Julio Jones
Followed by standard backups like Gresham, K. Hunter, Benn etc...
Left the draft feeling very good. The team is dead.
In my home league among friends I SOMEHOW ended up with the following starting lineup in a ppr league.
Ben/stafford
Wells
Hightower / R Bush
A Johnson
L. Fitzgerald
V. Jackson
A. Hernandez
k
def
1-7 record.
I know on PAPER these teams were very strong (especially my home league team, which was ridiculous in my opinion). Things haven't broken my way. However, over the long run and in a larger sample, I believe skill trumps luck even though in singular circumstances, luck will crush us.
[ November 04, 2011, 11:45 AM: Message edited by: Renman ]
I get what you are saying. I guess "thats why they play the games." It would be boring if the teams and lineups who are projected to score the highest just automatically won.
A couple weeks ago I was venting about maybe being the only Aaron Rodgers owner who was 0-7.
Here is my draft from the 8th spot in an NFFC 12 teamer.
A. Johnson
A. Rodgers
Felix Jones
Stevie Johnson
S. Greene (at the time I thought was a steal)
Owen Daniels
Julio Jones
Followed by standard backups like Gresham, K. Hunter, Benn etc...
Left the draft feeling very good. The team is dead.
In my home league among friends I SOMEHOW ended up with the following starting lineup in a ppr league.
Ben/stafford
Wells
Hightower / R Bush
A Johnson
L. Fitzgerald
V. Jackson
A. Hernandez
k
def
1-7 record.
I know on PAPER these teams were very strong (especially my home league team, which was ridiculous in my opinion). Things haven't broken my way. However, over the long run and in a larger sample, I believe skill trumps luck even though in singular circumstances, luck will crush us.
[ November 04, 2011, 11:45 AM: Message edited by: Renman ]
-
Tom Kessenich
- Posts: 30140
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
What's different in 2011?
Originally posted by Quahogs:
Of course no probs Tom Hey if you launch a QB early you can't miss in rds 2-4. If you do miss you may be one or even two impact players behind the teams that also landed Eli or Cam or even Cutler out there. Those teams will be hard to catch. Now those teams DON'T have to be perfect - you do though. I agree there's a little catch-up involved Steve but conversely getting a stud QB like Rodgers also means you have a little more room for error if you don't hit exactly on the right guys later. He's going to score so many points per week he can compensate if you come up short elsewhere.
Ultimately, though, you have to hit on the picks no matter which direction you go. Then you have to hope the season goes as planned even if you have stud talents. Ask Andre Johnson owners how tough life can be even though they clearly did not make a mistake in drafting him.
It's a tough game without a doubt.
Of course no probs Tom Hey if you launch a QB early you can't miss in rds 2-4. If you do miss you may be one or even two impact players behind the teams that also landed Eli or Cam or even Cutler out there. Those teams will be hard to catch. Now those teams DON'T have to be perfect - you do though. I agree there's a little catch-up involved Steve but conversely getting a stud QB like Rodgers also means you have a little more room for error if you don't hit exactly on the right guys later. He's going to score so many points per week he can compensate if you come up short elsewhere.
Ultimately, though, you have to hit on the picks no matter which direction you go. Then you have to hope the season goes as planned even if you have stud talents. Ask Andre Johnson owners how tough life can be even though they clearly did not make a mistake in drafting him.
It's a tough game without a doubt.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
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Chi_Town_FEW
- Posts: 280
- Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:00 pm
What's different in 2011?
2001/2011--- 2001/2011--- 2001/2011
--------RBS ------ WRs ------- QBs
1. 110.3/107.7--- 99.9/117.7--- 301.9/343.2
2. 98.7/103.0--- 95.2/114.8 --- 258.2/338.2
3. 97.5/99.8--- 92.0/100.5 --- 245.1/337.3
4. 97.2/96.4 --- 89.5/100.0 --- 245.1/303.9
5. 94.6/96.0 --- 88.2/96.7 --- 239.5/299.1
6. 89.5/92.5 --- 85.8/96.3--- 239.2/297.7
7. 87.6/88.7 --- 85.2/89.1--- 239.2/287.8
8. 86.7/88.7 --- 84.4/88.0--- 236.4/ 279.9
9. 85.5/87.7--- 82.5/86.1--- 235.2/272.4
10. 82.4/84.3 --- 79.1/82.1--- 228.3/264.8
I just took a look at average yards per game to see what has change over the last decade. TDs vary year to year so that is your "luck" factor.Whats changed? Not much, we are a crazy passing league now, but 70 yards per game separated 10 from 1 in the QBs in 01 and not much more now. RBs, same same. Wrs are where your new studs are. 1 and 2's averages per game this year will fall back some but the difference between 10 and 1 is greatest here than from 01.
Looking at the top ten players at position this year nothing stands out. 9 of the top ten RBs coming into the year were their teams #1 back. Not the order I had them ranked, but that is my bad. WRs, same thing, 9 out of 10 are #1s on their offense.
I think the amount of information available is a big factor for parody now. Friday rolls around and you don't have to do any homework for your free agent picks. So fewer players who can actually contribute on the wire this year. Not a back to speak of all year in my Classic.
I don't think the luck level has changed as much as how we go about building our teams on draft day. Where we will take a QB vs WR and so on. My teams suck but I will keep trying and reach for the consolation round glory.
Great post Wayne.
[ November 04, 2011, 01:45 PM: Message edited by: Chi_Town_FEW ]
--------RBS ------ WRs ------- QBs
1. 110.3/107.7--- 99.9/117.7--- 301.9/343.2
2. 98.7/103.0--- 95.2/114.8 --- 258.2/338.2
3. 97.5/99.8--- 92.0/100.5 --- 245.1/337.3
4. 97.2/96.4 --- 89.5/100.0 --- 245.1/303.9
5. 94.6/96.0 --- 88.2/96.7 --- 239.5/299.1
6. 89.5/92.5 --- 85.8/96.3--- 239.2/297.7
7. 87.6/88.7 --- 85.2/89.1--- 239.2/287.8
8. 86.7/88.7 --- 84.4/88.0--- 236.4/ 279.9
9. 85.5/87.7--- 82.5/86.1--- 235.2/272.4
10. 82.4/84.3 --- 79.1/82.1--- 228.3/264.8
I just took a look at average yards per game to see what has change over the last decade. TDs vary year to year so that is your "luck" factor.Whats changed? Not much, we are a crazy passing league now, but 70 yards per game separated 10 from 1 in the QBs in 01 and not much more now. RBs, same same. Wrs are where your new studs are. 1 and 2's averages per game this year will fall back some but the difference between 10 and 1 is greatest here than from 01.
Looking at the top ten players at position this year nothing stands out. 9 of the top ten RBs coming into the year were their teams #1 back. Not the order I had them ranked, but that is my bad. WRs, same thing, 9 out of 10 are #1s on their offense.
I think the amount of information available is a big factor for parody now. Friday rolls around and you don't have to do any homework for your free agent picks. So fewer players who can actually contribute on the wire this year. Not a back to speak of all year in my Classic.
I don't think the luck level has changed as much as how we go about building our teams on draft day. Where we will take a QB vs WR and so on. My teams suck but I will keep trying and reach for the consolation round glory.
Great post Wayne.
[ November 04, 2011, 01:45 PM: Message edited by: Chi_Town_FEW ]