Number of Decisions and Complexity in Game with higher minimum skill of competitors

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 10:42 am

This was from Sportsbettingman on another thread and I thought it was worth pursueing this thought and consequenses but not as interuption to AFFL thread.

"That opens up the debate that a minimum skill level among high stakes players has to be assumed.

The difference between 12-15 high stakes players is much less than that of 12-15 random people off the street.

When people of similar skill sets play poker...(example...High Stakes Poker)...the winners often have to rely more on luck than usual.

That's why they are always looking for a juicy game with lesser skilled players...they make much more money without needing the luck as much.

~Lance"

SBM- I agree with this and this is why when designing/choosing a High Stakes contest I think it should lean towards creating more decisions and have some level of complexity that raises the attainable Ceiling of skill. If the floor level of skill is Higher, then to get the same desired degree of seperation of competitors, I feel you have to provide more opportunities for competitors to demonstrate addition skills or at least their skills more times each week and/or over season. So when a contest is deciding on rules/setup I feel they should lean towards providing the setup that has more decisions built in and is the most complex that will be accepted by enough of their customers to be feasible.
Example- I think many would say an Auction provides more opportunities to make more decisions than a serpentine draft (in league of 14 you only decide/participate in 1/14th of the serpentine drafts decisions) so the ceiling level of skill is higher in an Auction. BUT not enough customers are ready to go auction over Serpentine so it isn't done yet in big contests. There are other formats that provide even more decisions than an Auction might...and there are things like a Draft Champions Serpentine Draft that has even less decisions involved than a Typical league because there aren't even any start/bench decisions involved. I know some things that add decisions (like Trading) have some issues that large contests have trouble addressing (although there are ways even in draft leagues)...but when faced with deciding between rules I think contests should err on side of maximizing player options/decisions (when it is acceptable to enough of it's customer base) over the time frame of their game so that the Ceiling level of skill attainable is high enough above the floor level of it's competitors to reveal that it really is a game of skill (which these definately are..just need to add even more skill aspects/opportunities to them as level of competition gets better). When ceiling level of game stops appearing high enough then competitors will look for higher ceilings somewhere else. JMO These are all games of skill..how much skill is determined by how much the customers demand

[ February 28, 2008, 04:50 PM: Message edited by: Lightning Fast Whip ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:16 am

I agree.

What do you see in poker?

The internet age caught up enough in skill and aggression to the professionals...so now they all want to switch games to pot limit omaha high/low 8 or better.

They have the advantage on all the "hold'em" players, and will make money off a whole slew of new books on different poker games.

Now HORSE or HOSE are gaining a lot of steam in poker tournaments.

They increase the complexity of the game, and add more games to the mix to increase their skill advantage to make easier money. (less grinding, less days of not winning.)

I'd guess there are many less popular forms of fantasy football that can be introduced...NFC or AFC only leagues, 20 team leagues...more starting positions, 2QB's, DEFENSIVE players!

We'll see what the market evolves toward.

~Lance

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:59 am

SBM- there are formats such as Serpentine,Auction,Salary Cap,Stock Market style Trading (I haven't tried this yet but saw new site and plan to try it next season),Roto Scoring,Start them once etc etc....I'm sure there are ideas I haven't heard or thought about too. I've seen new twists from some companies already that look very intriging....I think Fantasy Football will continue to evolve as creative guys think up new or combinations of ways to add to the fun/skill involved ...but as AFFL and TURF WAR showed and Greg states - it's buyer beware on who to trust.
I just hope industry keeps growing and evolving despite the fear that these companies going belly up is going to cause.

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 12:04 pm

Poker Pros change game then try to make money catching the crowd up by selling the more books? HAHA...if a new style of play got popular I suppose the old Websites would make money teaching the masses how to avoid getting rolled too easily too. :rolleyes:

[ February 28, 2008, 09:24 PM: Message edited by: Lightning Fast Whip ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 12:29 pm

Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
Poker Pros change game then try to make money catching the crowd up by selling the more books? HAHA...if a new style of play got popular I suppose the old Websites would make money teaching the masses how to not get rolled too easily too. :rolleyes: Yup!

Sammy Farha, Mike the Mouth's coming out with one on Omaha, etc.

Just for a side note...I scan the poker area of the giant Barnes and Noble bookstore nearby each time I go there...they used to have TWO FULL nose high shelves full of hold'em books.

Since that law passed...it looks like they haven't ordered another book to fill the void of a sold one. They are down to a single shelf maybe 70% poker and it now has chess and horse betting and craps mixed in.

The only new books to come in are "other" poker game books like Omaha.

I hear McCain is very anti-gambling and even anti "UFC" style MMA...F-THAT!

He needs to let the american public make up their own minds re: free time and expendable income.

~Lance

Diesel · Post by **Diesel** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 12:29 pm

LFW, I've said before that the Auction format is BY FAR, the most fun and most fair way to play this game. However, it will NEVER be implemented into the Main Event soley because it's confusing enough at times while ONE Auction is going on. Imagine 7-12 Auction drafts in ONE ROOM. There would be argument after argument over who heard who say LT2 for $82, when it was someone at the next draft table...lol...It would be MASS CHAOS. You would need a seperate room for every auction. Near impossible.

wayne123 · Post by **wayne123** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 2:00 pm

Originally posted by Diesel:
LFW, I've said before that the Auction format is BY FAR, the most fun and most fair way to play this game. However, it will NEVER be implemented into the Main Event soley because it's confusing enough at times while ONE Auction is going on. Imagine 7-12 Auction drafts in ONE ROOM. There would be argument after argument over who heard who say LT2 for $82, when it was someone at the next draft table...lol...It would be MASS CHAOS. You would need a seperate room for every auction. Near impossible. Perhaps bids could be made with paddles. Actually, with the advent and use of 3RR, I am satisfied with the fairness of the draft, but the luck factor in the game remains far too high. Perhaps an auction draft would lower this, unless of course, a top player lands in a very weak league. In that case, the luck of the draw for league could exceed the luck of the draw for draft choice. Could you imagine if 4 or 5 teams in the same league way overspent for the first few picks (this is quite likely)? The result could be some very strong and deep teams comming from the same league and dominating the playoff round. So, I think the game may need to remain a certain level of minimum luck (serpentine draft w/3RR) to keep a highly skilled players from pulling to far ahead of other highly skilled players based on league assignment.

wayne123 · Post by **wayne123** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 2:06 pm

Geeeez! Sorry about the tense usage in the last post. Anyway, my point is...if the game is too "skill based" it could result in complete domination by a few teams based on good fortune during the initial league assignment. Therefore, due to the league structure and playoff system, it may be better to accept a "luckier" draft system in order to preserve the overall competitive nature of the league.

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 3:12 pm

Originally posted by Diesel:
LFW, I've said before that the Auction format is BY FAR, the most fun and most fair way to play this game. However, it will NEVER be implemented into the Main Event soley because it's confusing enough at times while ONE Auction is going on. Imagine 7-12 Auction drafts in ONE ROOM. There would be argument after argument over who heard who say LT2 for $82, when it was someone at the next draft table...lol...It would be MASS CHAOS. You would need a seperate room for every auction. Near impossible. Diesel- My favorite style of play (CDM Salary cap Roto) doesn't particularly lend itself to a LIVE format either. Sort of for an opposite reason in that creating the teams doesn't involve interaction needed from live format. Auction needs it so much it can't have nearby distractions. Maybe the paddles (to cut out extra noise) if someone really wanted to give it a shot? I only used Auction as an example because NFFC already uses Auctions in some leagues so I knew some here are familar with it's added complexity. I don't think that big live events should change yet or to what.. but if the perceived difference in skill levels SBM alluded to get too close in too many players opinions then there will be incentive to think about it. As of now the Big serpentine main events continue to grow so plenty feel they work well enough.
But when designing new contests I'd like to think the new contests will try to add to number of decisions required and complexity where reasonable to raise the ceiling on potential skill levels available because the minimum skill level has and will continue to go up imo.

[ February 28, 2008, 09:25 PM: Message edited by: Lightning Fast Whip ]