13th Spot Has Highest Scoring Average

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 7:10 am

This information was going to get lost in another thread, so I grabbed it and posted it here. Courtesy of MrX, here's the scoring breakdown by position of draft slot for the Las Vegas NFFC Leagues:

Greg - Here are the averages for Vegas:
Draft Positon - Avg Score (dropped all fractions)
1-750
2-716
3-676
4-648 (lo)
5-683
6-725
7-696
8-702
9-726
10-676
11-663
12-662
13-804 (hi)
14-678

Interesting that #13 is best, but #12 and #14 suck.

Thanks MrX. Good stuff and if anyone else has this information for Chicago and/or New York, feel free to post them here. Keep it up MrX and let us know if the numbers change next week at all.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 7:28 am

The impact of a player like Deuce McAllister being out for 4-5 weeks (most teams missed his week 5 start, plus he was a -.9 in week 2) is clearly apparent for slots 3-5 (since that is almost certainly where he went.) Add to that the fact that some of these teams took S. Davis in round two and this analysis is considerably tainted.

Run it again when the season is over and there will be more validity to it. I guarantee any team that was lucky enough to land Deuce would gladly go back and time and be “stuck” with the 14 pick.

The previous exchanges about winning from any slot are valid. However, THIS year in hindsight there was an inherent disadvantage to the teams drafting 3-5 because of the Deuce / S. Davis factor.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 7:32 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
This information was going to get lost in another thread, so I grabbed it and posted it here. Courtesy of MrX, here's the scoring breakdown by position of draft slot for the Las Vegas NFFC Leagues:

Greg - Here are the averages for Vegas:
Draft Positon - Avg Score (dropped all fractions)
1-750
2-716
3-676
4-648 (lo)
5-683
6-725
7-696
8-702
9-726
10-676
11-663
12-662
13-804 (hi)
14-678

Interesting that #13 is best, but #12 and #14 suck.

Thanks MrX. Good stuff and if anyone else has this information for Chicago and/or New York, feel free to post them here. Keep it up MrX and let us know if the numbers change next week at all. Interesting.

Something is strange with the 13 slot. If we ignore that slot, the correlation coefficient between slot and score is -.52 which is indeed a real correlation. 0 would be no correlation and 1 (or -1) would be a perfect correlation.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 7:36 am

Originally posted by nnoy:
The impact of a player like Deuce McAllister being out for 4-5 weeks (most teams missed his week 5 start, plus he was a -.9 in week 2) is clearly apparent for slots 3-5 (since that is almost certainly where he went.) Add to that the fact that some of these teams took S. Davis in round two and this analysis is considerably tainted.

Run it again when the season is over and there will be more validity to it. I guarantee any team that was lucky enough to land Deuce would gladly go back and time and be “stuck” with the 14 pick.

The previous exchanges about winning from any slot are valid. However, THIS year in hindsight there was an inherent disadvantage to the teams drafting 3-5 because of the Deuce / S. Davis factor. Factor in Ahman Green and Clinton Portis (so far) having sub-par years as well. Green, Deuce and Portis were likely the 3-5 picks in many leagues so it's no surprise to see those spots be among the lowest-scoring spots to this point.

fcphantom · Post by **fcphantom** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 7:37 am

With only 6 leagues being looked at this could simply be a coincidence. I drafted 13th in LV2 and got Barber and J. Walker at that slot which is a big part of the reason my team is doing well.

I'd love to see the results from all 16 leagues.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 7:48 am

sample size is to small to draw any conclusions. btw, steve smith was the worst injury to date. probably teams in the top 10 slots were most hurt.

LB Big Richards · Post by **LB Big Richards** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 7:51 am

Greg, based on these results (and the fact that I picked 4th), can you factor in a weighted scoring system (i.e. degree of difficulty in diving or gymnastics) for the overall standings?

Just a thought considering everyone else isn't shy about changes

.

mrx · Post by **mrx** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:37 am

Originally posted by Rob K:
With only 6 leagues being looked at this could simply be a coincidence. I drafted 13th in LV2 and got Barber and J. Walker at that slot which is a big part of the reason my team is doing well.

I'd love to see the results from all 16 leagues. Barber and Walker make sense for #13 in Vegas, as do Tom's observations about the mediocre performances of certain top 'prospects.' I'll pull data for the other leagues.

TradeStar28 · Post by **TradeStar28** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 9:10 am

I have an awesome idea, folks!

NExt year we should have everyone use FAAB to bid on draft positions just like we do on the waiver wire!

Obviously, we see that you can only win this event if you draft from the 13th spot

:rolleyes:

fcphantom · Post by **fcphantom** » Fri Oct 22, 2004 9:13 am

Do you really want to open that can of worms