3RR impact

Route Collectors
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Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 6:00 pm

3RR impact

Post by Route Collectors » Wed Nov 21, 2007 6:07 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Route C:
[QB] quote:Good post renman. [/QUOTE]It must be the holiday season when you see this coming from Route C!! :D [/QUOTE]Ha ha! :D renman and I are cool. We get on each others nerves from time to time but we're mature enough to get past it. Happy holidays Greg.

3INTBOY
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3RR impact

Post by 3INTBOY » Wed Nov 21, 2007 6:37 am

Funny stuff, because each post about the "facts" includes some kind of change or rationale of the "facts"

Please explain why 33% of the Top 36 (guaranteed) spots remain from the Top 3, even in a year of immense injuries. That incude Steven Jackson and Frank Gore.

The remaining 24 guaranteed spots are NOT evenly distributed to the remaining 11 draft slots.

3RR has little impact, which to answer Raiders ?, I don't think anyone ever said they didn't like it. I think what has been said time and again is PLEASE don't justify it as having an actual impact. It doesn't.

KDS is a very good idea, and is really the main impact on drafts that does lead to control.

So my contention is again proven correct, the numbers show 3RR is of no impact. Just a false hurdle to draft over for Top Picks. And it made people feel warm and fuzzy with lower draft slots.

By the end of the next two weeks it will be very interesting to see how many Top 3 selections are in the guaranteed 36.

As someone said yesterday, currently it's a 7-8 team decrease. I would suggest it would be exactly the same number if we again had 2 400+ point RBs up there.

I'm very familiar with the math attempts here, problem is there continues to be an effort to implement stagnant players into a moving draft position.

Can't argue with the makeup of the Top 36. The proof is in the pudding as they say. So please, just admit it's a feeling, and move on from the numbers, they don;t add up.

3'

[ November 21, 2007, 12:39 PM: Message edited by: 3INT/BFDFANTASYfootball.com ]

BillyWaz
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3RR impact

Post by BillyWaz » Wed Nov 21, 2007 6:39 am

Having a SAY in where you draft is ALWAYS a good thing, whether or not the statistics back up why a "different" way to draft is implemented.

Yes, for the last (too many years to remember), having the #1 pick was a VERY big advantage in your standard serpentine draft as players like Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, LT, etc. were "head and shoulders above the rest". Of course, the year that the NFFC (and one other contest I know of) decide to use 3RR, this isn't the case.

This of course will bring out all the naysayers that will say 3RR "didn't work". My question is very simple......why does it have to "work"????? :confused:

Some other questions to ponder?

1) Has 3RR given OTHER draft spots a big advantage?

And if so, then instead of the majority setting
their KDS 1,2,3 etc., they will set it
14,13,12, etc. and now those will be every
"other" leagues 1,2,3 etc. (for the record, I
don't believe it has).

2) Has 3RR (with KDS) made it so someone who PREFERS to draft near the back, in the middle, etc. the opportunity for a better shot at getting their desired spot?

3) Has 3RR/KDS made people "feel better" about
their draft spot?

As it has pointed out, most everyone agrees that it has made people "feel better". While some want to downplay that, I think that is BIG factor that is overlooked.

The CONTROL we have in selecting (KDS), paired with the OPPORTUNITIES (3RR) that are only available in one other high stakes league are unparalleled.

The people who play in other contests (myself included) that have no KDS or 3RR, CANNOT tell me they are happy or "feel as good" when they get slot #10 for example, and their buddy who is equal in fantasy prowess gets a #1 or #2.

The numbers may or may not support 3RR from year to year simply because of the later rounds, free agency, etc.

That all being said, this is my 21st year of FF, and have played in NUMEROUS high stakes leagues, contests, etc. and I would challenge ANYONE to tell me that given a choice between 2 leagues (for the sake of argument lets make them both 12 teamers at $1,000 a pop and has the same payouts) that they would choose league A which gives you ZERO say in your draft spot with no KDS or 3RR, over league B which uses KDS/3RR.

Giving people CHOICES is what makes KDS/3RR work IMO. If it isn't making ANOTHER draft spot more desirable "year in and year out" and gives people CHOICES, it CANNOT be bad IMO.

Although people laugh at ADP, we ALL get sucked into it, and don't draft certain players "too early" because they just might fall. Conversely, 3RR (with KDS) DOES WORK, because if I want to put together a specific set of players I want to obtain, looking at ADP I can figure out IN MOST CASES "who will be there and who won't" even into the 8th, 9th round, etc.

And to add one more thing, EVERYONE "worth their salt" knows that EVERY year there are players in the 4th, 5th, 6th round, etc. AND ON THE WAIVER WIRE that are TRUE difference makers in EVERY fantasy league (like Felix Flamingo mentioned) that we ALL could draft/pick-up NUMEROUS times.

3RR or no 3RR that will never change.

Giving people a SAY is what 3RR/KDS is all about. The NFFC is different as there are no other leagues that I am aware of that have 14 teams, KDS & 3RR. When you are throwing down $1,300 or more to play fantasy football I personally think that is a VERY big deal that some people are overlooking.

Just my .02 ;)

[ November 21, 2007, 01:04 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

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kjduke
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3RR impact

Post by kjduke » Wed Nov 21, 2007 6:53 am

Originally posted by 3INT/BFDFANTASYfootball.com:
Funny stuff, because each post about the "facts" includes some kind of change or rationale of the "facts"

Please explain why 33% of the Top 36 (guaranteed) spots remain from the Top 3, even in a year of immense injuries. That incude Steven Jackson and Frank Gore.

The remaining 24 guaranteed spots are NOT evenly distributed to the remaining 11 draft slots.

3RR has little impact, which to answer Raiders ?, I don't think anyone ever said they didn't like it. I think what has been said time and again is PLEASE don't justify it as having an actual impact. It doesn't.

KDS is a very good idea, and is really the main impact on drafts that does lead to control.

So my contention is again proven correct, the numbers show 3RR is of no impact. Just a false hurdle to draft over for Top Picks. And it made people feel warm and fuzzy with lower draft slots.

By the end of the next two weeks it will be very interesting to see how many Top 3 selections are in the guaranteed 36.

As someone said yesterday, currently it's a 7-8 team decrease. I would suggest it would be exactly the same number if we again had 2 400+ point RBs up there.

I'm very familiar with the math attempts here, problem is there continues to be an effort to implement stagnant players into a moving draft position.

Can't argue with the makeup of the Top 36. The proof is in the pudding as they say. So please, just admit it's a feeling, and move on from the numbers, they don;t add up.

3' I disagree, Lou.

Your "proof is in the pudding" statement has no merit - distribution of the top 36 says nothing about 3RR.

3RR gives one a greater opportunity to get better value in round 3 because of the reversal that round. If slot #1 and slot #14 both wanted Tom Brady or Randy Moss in round 3, slot #1 would've got one of them without 3RR (making that particular #1 team even more dominant), whereas slot #14 would've got one of them under 3RR (providing greater league balance).

3RR balances opportunity, everyone is still free to make bad or unlucky decisions. Without 3RR the top slots would have had the opportunity to control even more of the top 36 slots.

[ November 21, 2007, 01:07 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Greg Ambrosius
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Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm

3RR impact

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:20 am

Originally posted by 3INT/BFDFANTASYfootball.com:
The remaining 24 guaranteed spots are NOT evenly distributed to the remaining 11 draft slots. No. 4 - 3 teams
No. 5 - 2 teams
No. 6 - 0 teams
No. 7 - 2 teams
No. 8 - 4 teams
No. 9 - 2 teams
No. 10 - 2 teams
No. 11 - 2 teams
No. 12 - 3 teams
No. 13 - 2 teams
No. 14 - 1 team
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius

BillyWaz
Posts: 10913
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:00 pm

3RR impact

Post by BillyWaz » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:24 am

Originally posted by 3INT/BFDFANTASYfootball.com:

Please explain why 33% of the Top 36 (guaranteed) spots remain from the Top 3, even in a year of immense injuries. That incude Steven Jackson and Frank Gore.
Just like you and the other naysayers are saying that 3RR should not have been implemented based on the history of MANY #1 picks dominating, you now have someone else dominating this year....

TOM BRADY.

Out of the top 36 (to no surprise), Brady is currently on 11 teams (10 of the top 22!) Out of those 11 teams SEVEN of them had top 3 picks.

Now I have no idea where the other 15 Brady owners NOT in the top 36 in the NFFC took him from (may try and figure that out later), but it seems safe to that when 64% of them (in the top 36) drafted Brady from a top 3 spot that would have been a place you would want to be, and would obviously skew the numbers to where the top 3 is still "king".

Now lets pretend that Brady's ADP WAS NOT mainly in the top 3 picks and was somewhere else. Wouldn't that balance the numbers out more? OF COURSE! So because of ADP and where all the other QB's were going, while a bunch of people "missed" and took Palmer, Brees, Bulger, etc. others got THE QB in that "group"... Brady.

Yes, you can take numbers from ONE (not even a full year)year, and say "I was right, I was right!" However, there has NEVER been a player not taken with a top 3 pick that STOOD ALONE and had such a wide gap on the competition as Brady has in all the years I have played.

Add in the fact that he WAS drafted in 7 of 11 leagues with people picking in the top 3 picks
and OF COURSE it is going to look like 3RR doesn't work.

Basically, Brady is an INCREDIBLE "outlier" that has skewed many stats.

first, everyone needs to wait a few years to base their information. Next, wait until someone like him does not have an ADP where he is going on the 3/4 turn to the top 3, and I will GUARANTEE the numbers will be more equal.

Chances are we will NEVER see someone dominate this much that was not taken with a top 3 pick ever again.

[ November 21, 2007, 01:28 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

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kjduke
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3RR impact

Post by kjduke » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:28 am

Good post Waz, seems like next season Brady replaces Manning in the late 1st/early 2nd. Will be interesting to see if he pays off there as it seems Manning has only once in maybe 4-5 years from that top slot.

ultimatefs
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3RR impact

Post by ultimatefs » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:47 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by 3INT/BFDFANTASYfootball.com:
The remaining 24 guaranteed spots are NOT evenly distributed to the remaining 11 draft slots. No. 4 - 3 teams
No. 5 - 2 teams
No. 6 - 0 teams
No. 7 - 2 teams
No. 8 - 4 teams
No. 9 - 2 teams
No. 10 - 2 teams
No. 11 - 2 teams
No. 12 - 3 teams
No. 13 - 2 teams
No. 14 - 1 team
[/QUOTE]ROFLMAO.

send 2 from #8 to #6 and it almost perfect.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.

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kjduke
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3RR impact

Post by kjduke » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:49 am

Would be interesting to see how many top 36 are either Brady or Moss, or both, both generally 3rd rounders.

ToddZ
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3RR impact

Post by ToddZ » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:50 am

So please, just admit it's a feeling, and move on from the numbers, they don;t add up.
No, they do.

As suggested, you can't look at a single year in a vacuum. They don't add up this season because the ADP is going to differ wildly than the end of season ranking. But in years they are more similar, it helps. And overall, looking at a longer time frame of several years, the ADp and end of season rankings have decent correlation.
"No one cares about your team but you."

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