3RR impact

[BillyWaz]

Originally posted by JohnZ:
quote:Originally posted by BillyWaz:
quote:Originally posted by 3INT/BFDFANTASYfootball.com:

Please explain why 33% of the Top 36 (guaranteed) spots remain from the Top 3, even in a year of immense injuries. That incude Steven Jackson and Frank Gore.
Just like you and the other naysayers are saying that 3RR should not have been implemented based on the history of MANY #1 picks dominating, you now have someone else dominating this year....

TOM BRADY.

Out of the top 36 (to no surprise), Brady is currently on 11 teams (10 of the top 22!) Out of those 11 teams SEVEN of them had top 3 picks.

Now I have no idea where the other 15 Brady owners NOT in the top 36 in the NFFC took him from (may try and figure that out later), but it seems safe to that when 64% of them (in the top 36) drafted Brady from a top 3 spot that would have been a place you would want to be, and would obviously skew the numbers to where the top 3 is still "king".

Now lets pretend that Brady's ADP WAS NOT mainly in the top 3 picks and was somewhere else. Wouldn't that balance the numbers out more? OF COURSE! So because of ADP and where all the other QB's were going, while a bunch of people "missed" and took Palmer, Brees, Bulger, etc. others got THE QB in that "group"... Brady.

Yes, you can take numbers from ONE (not even a full year)year, and say "I was right, I was right!" However, there has NEVER been a player not taken with a top 3 pick that STOOD ALONE and had such a wide gap on the competition as Brady has in all the years I have played.

Add in the fact that he WAS drafted in 7 of 11 leagues with people picking in the top 3 picks
and OF COURSE it is going to look like 3RR doesn't work.

Basically, Brady is an INCREDIBLE "outlier" that has skewed many stats.

first, everyone needs to wait a few years to base their information. Next, wait until someone like him does not have an ADP where he is going on the 3/4 turn to the top 3, and I will GUARANTEE the numbers will be more equal.

Chances are we will NEVER see someone dominate this much that was not taken with a top 3 pick ever again. [/QUOTE]I posted the Brady draft spots last week.

Brady was taken #8 or #9 in 10 of the 26 drafts, or 38.6%

found it...

Here's Brady Breakdown

Pick #/# of teams
1 1
2 2
3 2
4 1
5 3
6 1
7 0
8 6
9 4
10 1
11 0
12 2
13 2
14 1

Top 7 10
Bot 7 16

He was picked 8th or 9th in 10 of 26 leagues. [/QUOTE]John,

I had completely different numbers for what spot Brady was selected.

1- 1
2- 4
3- 4
4- 1
5- 4
6- 3
7- 3
8- 3
9- 2
10- 0
11- 0
12- 0
13- 0
14- 1

Breakdown for where Brady was selected in each league and city...

Tampa 1- #5
Tampa 2- #6
Tampa 3- #3

Chicago 1- #9
Chicago 2- #3
Chicago 3- #5
Chicago 4- #8
Chicago 5- #5
Chicago 6- #3

NY 1- #14
NY 2- #9
NY 3- #8
NY 4- #2
NY 5- #6
NY 6- #7
NY 7- #2
NY 8- #6
NY 9- #1

LV 1- #8
LV 2- #4
LV 3- #2
LV 4- #5
LV 5- #3
LV 6- #7
LV 7- #2
LV 8- #7

Based on my numbers (and I will check them again, and if someone could also check it would be mich appreciated!)

Top 7 - 20
Bottom 7- 6

OBVIOUSLY with a season that Brady is having he is going to skew the stats, and since he was selected in the TOP half of the draft in 20 of 26 leagues 3RR is going to APPEAR not to work.

Again, it is ONE year with a RIDICULOUS "outlier". All the naysayers and those who think it works need to wait more than ONE year to make an assessment on whether it works.

And again..... WHO CARES IF IT "WORKS"?????

I don't know ANYONE who wouldn't rather have the 14th pick WITH 3RR, than the 14th pick WITHOUT 3RR. But obviously some people STILL prefer the #1 with 3RR.

Sounds fair and equitable to me.

[ November 21, 2007, 02:15 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

[RiFF]

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
I disagree, Lou.

Your "proof is in the pudding" statement has no merit - distribution of the top 36 says nothing about 3RR.

3RR gives one a greater opportunity to get better value in round 3 because of the reversal that round. If slot #1 and slot #14 both wanted Tom Brady or Randy Moss in round 3, slot #1 would've got one of them without 3RR (making that particular #1 team even more dominant), whereas slot #14 would've got one of them under 3RR (providing greater league balance).

3RR balances opportunity, everyone is still free to make bad or unlucky decisions. Without 3RR the top slots would have had the opportunity to control even more of the top 36 slots. [/quote]


Although all of this is a moot point, as Greg has stated repeatedly; 3RR is here to stay in NFFC;
but Kevin, your point about opportunity is exactly what concerned me about 3RR when it was initially discussed. That is, the opportunity for the early draft slots to be even stronger with 3RR than a serpentine draft. As you stated, in hindsight, team one could have gotten Brady and Moss with their 2nd and 3rd picks in most NFFC drafts this year using a serpentine draft. Well in hindsight if the production of Brady and Moss had been known (or even suspected) prior to the draft they would have both been drafted in the 1st round before the late picks even had a shot at them. Of course, their production wasn't known and I suspect in most NFFC drafts the early picks could have had both of them with their 3rd and 4th round picks. I know in LV 2 they could have been drafted there. So Kevin, instead of LT, TJ, Ahman and Branch you could have been sitting with LT, TJ, Brady and Moss.
And in fact the overall leader did that by taking S Jax, Brady, Moss and A Peterson with his first 4 picks. Imagine what his score would be if S Jax hadn't been hurt most of the season!!
My point was, and still is, 3RR gives the "opportunity" for the early draft slots to draft an even stronger team by getting picks 42 and 43 instead of picks 29 and 56. This year players like Brady, Moss, Peterson, Edwards were available in many NFFC drafts at the 3/4 turn. Last year it was players like TJ, Andre Johnson, Javon Walker who were available there. In very few instances were these players still available at the 4/5 turn. Again, giving the early slots the "opportunity" to start with a stronger team with 3RR. I know I'm still in the minority thinking 3RR strenghtens the early slots potential, but again this year the results so far seem to once again indicate that's the case. But regardless of slot its still imperative to select the "right" player. But, as i've also stated previously, I don't believe 3RR has much of an actual impact on results, but if it makes participants feel more in control that's a plus. But, the real control factor in my opinion is KDS, which is leaps and bounds more valuable than 3RR.

[Gordon Gekko]

Customers buy a lot of things because of the way it makes them feel.

People buy lottery tickets because for a few minutes people think they will be millionaires, EVEN THOUGH THE ODDS OF WINNING THE BIG PRIZE IS ALMOST ZERO.

People buy McDonalds food because it tastes good and is supposedly fast, EVEN THOUGH IT'S "BAD" FOR YOU.

People buy SUV's for the way it makes them feel, EVEN THOUGH THEY MIGHT BE GAS GUZZLERS

With 3RR, the perception of being able to win from any draft slot is much more clear than a non-3RR draft.

As for if 3RR works from the standpoint of leveling out which draft slots ultimately succeed? Who knows? How will you prove it? Is it "proveable" one way or the other? One year there might be significant injuries that cloud the picture. Another year the consensus #1 player could score 500+ points.

I guess my question is does it really matter, as long as the perception is there? How many cheeseburgers has McDonalds sold? LOL

[ November 21, 2007, 02:35 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

[CC's Desperados]

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Of the Top 32 in total points at the end of the regular season, they drafted from the following spots:

No. 1 - 6
No. 2 - 8
No. 3 - 4
No. 4 - 1
No. 5 - 0
No. 6 - 1
No. 7 - 1
No. 8 - 1
No. 9 - 3
No. 10 - 0
No. 11 - 1
No. 12 - 2
No. 13 - 1
No. 14 - 3

That's 18 of the top 32 teams (56%) from the top three spots and 6 of the top 32 teams (19%) from the last three spots. Those are the facts.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I guess Lou's and Nag's point is: if Tomlinson and Jackson repeated the numbers of the top 3 picks from last year, this years top 3 draft spots would looks similar to last year.

But the problem with that is: Tomlinson was the biggest impact. He was spead out over the top 3 picks. Alexander was hurt half the year. Johnson was very good and Steve Jackson was very good. Jackson did most of his damaged after the regular season was over.

Last year's numbers were 56% top 3. This year we are at 33%. If the top picks performed like last year, the number would be higher. This year Brady is the biggest impact for teams. He is raising the number for the top 3 picks. Therefore, if he wasn't involved the top 3 would be lower, you then could add back a normal year from the top 3 picks. You would be about 40% which is good number. They front still has an edge, but not a huge edge as seen in 2006.

If I don't come across too clear, I'm sure Todd could translate for me!!

This simplest way to prove this with numbers is get the ADP for the top 28 picks for the last 4 years. Put the points to the picks 1-28, add the first two round together. Whatever picks have the most points have the edge after two rounds. The egde will only increase with the early 3rd round picks

[Raiders]

So every team could have drafted Brady,TO,Moss,Romo,All Day.

I guess it comes down to a small part we some times forget.

It's not were we draft, It's How.
I'll be going to AC, to win what I lost here.
Then spend Thanksgiving with the Family.
So all enjoy your Thanksgiving!

[ November 21, 2007, 02:44 PM: Message edited by: Raiders ]

[mkrucek]

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
Breakdown for what TEAM selected Brady in each league and city...

Tampa 1- #5
Tampa 2- #6
Tampa 3- #3

Chicago 1- #9
Chicago 2- #3
Chicago 3- #5
Chicago 4- #8
Chicago 5- #5
Chicago 6- #12

NY 1- #14
NY 2- #9
NY 3- #8
NY 4- #2
NY 5- #6
NY 6- #7
NY 7- #2
NY 8- #6
NY 9- #1

LV 1- #8
LV 2- #4
LV 3- #2
LV 4- #5
LV 5- #3
LV 6- #8
LV 7- #2
LV 8- #8

Drafted by top 7 teams - 17
Drafted by bottom 7 teams - 9 I know Chicago 6 is not correct as Brady was drafted by team 3.

[ultimatefs]

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Last year's numbers were 56% top 3. This year we are at 33%. Shawn, thanks... When 3RR first came up last year, I predicted the 33% would be 35%.

That was based on my stats of using 3rr in hoops and applying them to a more random FB game.

[mkrucek]

Silver Knuckle was the 3rd pick in the draft and he is the Brady owner. The draft results have never been right on the site as it shows things like Rudi picked at 3rd overall. Silver Knuckle drafted Brady with the 3rd pick of the 4th round.

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by 4D:
Silver Knuckle was the 3rd pick in the draft and he is the Brady owner. The draft results have never been right on the site as it shows things like Rudi picked at 3rd overall. Silver Knuckle drafted Brady with the 3rd pick of the 4th round. I'm sure this would be the only error here, 4D.

Crunch on!

~Lance

[Gordon Gekko]

On what page # will we get to the punchline