3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?

[Quahogs]

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
Q,

Thanks for looking at the facts (rare here) and no I will not be posting them again. TCH - bummer. To me it really ran up some red flags.

Q

[Gordon Gekko]

snake - stop with the BBDS talk. start another thread if you want to talk about it. this comes from the Godfather

[renman]

King Of Queen,

GREAT STUFF! That is the kind of info that can be helpful. Clearly the 3rd found reverse spreads things out some this year.

Here is a question among numerous that can be asked. This particular year we have one epic all time season from LT and another stud season from LJ. One of the reasons these guys stand out so much is how about 9 of the remaining 1st round picks are underperforming which widens the advantages of having a LT or LJ.

Not all seasons are like this. Can anyone see a circumstances where through 3RR there would end up being a massive advantage being at the back end of the draft board?

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by SNAKE:
...now please stop playing around with this second rate idea/concept of KDS/3RR and please implement the better and less complicated BBDS using points for next year so that we can significantly up the owner count here (all the comrades around will flock in droves to play the best game in town) and raise the overall top payout to $500,000You make some good points, SNAKE, but the operator of this contest has already gone on record stating that BBDS will not be a part of the main event for the foreseeable future. I'm not thrilled about it either, as I would like more control with my draft pick as well. However, the topic of discussion here is not about BBDS. The pros and cons of 3RR/KDS need to be hashed out to determine if it can be a part of the NFFC in 2007.

Of all the ideas that have been discussed, this is probably the one that has a chance of actually happening for next year's main event. If the idea has merit, or is an improvement over the current system, you should let your feelings be known.

[Route Collectors]

quote:
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Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

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Originally posted by Route C:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
[qb]
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Jeff, if we switched to 3RR/KDS next year, do you think 19 of the top 32 overall point leaders would come from 12, 13, 14? If so, then it would be a dramatic switch and one we'd have to evaluate. But I honestly don't think it would swing that far and in fact might even equalize things a bit. Thoughts?
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We could (as rainman suggested) do a mock draft to gain some insight. Maybe at the end of the season we could do 2 mocks...one that switches after 3 rounds and one after 5. It would be easy to see if any advantages/disadvantages are present using up to date points.

This should be a computer generated mock or at least a mock that's controlled by you or Tom since you have a good feel for the pulse of NFFC drafting. After you're done add up the #'s for discussion. Probably need to mock at least 7 or 8 rounds to get really good data.

KoQ's ADP is OK but needs to be tweeked in a mock to reflect drafting on a need basis. This will give us a better view of possible impact.

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by renman:
Can anyone see a circumstances where through 3RR there would end up being a massive advantage being at the back end of the draft board? that would be a tough sell. the folks drafting 1/2/3 all had a chance to draft whoever is being drafted by the 12/13/14 slots.

[Ted's Cracked Head]

quote:
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Originally posted by King of Queens:
2006 ADP using 3RR (reverse beginning Round 3):

1. LJ, Owens, S.Moss, T.Jones, Stallworth
2. LT2, Chambers, J.Lewis, Houshmandzadeh, Lundy
3. SA, Chester, Dillon, Mason, Maroney
4. Tiki, R.Moss, Burress, M.Bell, E.Manning
5. Brown, Dunn, Ward, A.Green, Addai
6. SJax, K.Jones, Driver, Rhodes, T.Glenn
7. Jordan, Bush, Gore, J.Walker, Gonzalez
8. Rudi, Boldin, Foster, Shockey, R.Smith
9. E.James, Harrison, Droughns, T.Bell, Hasselbeck
10. C.Williams, Portis, J.Jones, F.Taylor, McNabb
11. C.Johnson, Westbrook, Ry.Williams, A.Johnson, McAllister
12. S.Smith, Fitzgerald, Palmer, DJax, Horn
13. McGahee, Holt, Gates, Galloway, Brady
14. Parker, P.Manning, Wayne, Evans, Heap

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Now that's good analysis. There is NO QUESTION that 12, 13 and 14 have been helped greatly by the 3RR and yet they do lose some value in the fourth round. It certainly makes those final draft slots more desireable.

Have we hurt 1-3 too much? Probably not. 7-8 obviously isn't affected and 9, 10 and 11 are helped a little. Thoughts on 4 through 6??
It is a nice data and very well done (kudos) but analysis it is not.

Do this 25-50-100 more times with 14 people drafting and then it could be considered analysis. IMO, ADP gets thrown out the window in round 3 and beyond as that is where drafters start throwing darts and going after players they covet.

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by SNAKE:
...sorry as SNAKE ain't buying the compromise of KDS/3RR here for the SIMPLE FACT that granted this year it might have made a difference because this year there was CLEARLY a sizeable talent dropoff after the top 32 players ISHO...that fact will change from year to year and has fluctuated anywhere between 24-46 players in any given year in the last 5 years alone...Greg, do you have Top 70 ADP figures from 2004 and 2005? It might help to see the differences had 3RR/KDS been in play. It would also let us know if SNAKE's "24-46 talent drop-off" is an accurate representation of the truth.

If I recall, in 2005 there were 5 WRs to target (Holt, Moss, Johnson, Owens, Harrison) in the 2nd round. 2005 NFFC Champ Josh Ferenc drafted 1st and took Tomlinson, and then was able to secure two of these 5 WRs. Sure, he had a great draft after that (T.Jones, S.Moss, etc.), but getting two of those top 5 WRs was a huge difference maker. All it took was a couple of unorthodox picks ahead of him in the second round to make that happen. With 3RR, this would not have happened.

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
IMO, ADP gets thrown out the window in round 3 and beyond as that is where drafters start throwing darts and going after players they covet. I disagree -- it's more like Round 4 or 5. Especially for the teams drafting 1-2-3, there is often 2nd round talent available in the 3rd round.

Also, it's an obvious point, but one worth mentioning: main event teams did not use this ADP data to draft their teams. More than likely, the above scenario is how it would have played out using 3RR.

[Route Collectors]

One thing I really like about the 3RR is you can have a bottom 4 draft slot and not feel like you HAVE TO take at least 1 stud WR because you WILL get one or an awfully good RB3 with the reversal.

One thing I hate about drafting near the back is the pressure to draft defensively instead of building my team the way I want to. Under the current format if I'm picking 11th and 12/13/14 all go RB/RB then I almost have to pick WR/WR or at least RB/WR just to help prevent the top 3 from starting out so strong. Even at that...I'm still playing catch up for the rest of the draft.

I say all this as an LT owner this year.