3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?

[RiFF]

I believe based on the current pool of talent a reversal in the 3rd round makes the most sense. So, for 2007 3RR would seem appropriate. But, for sake of discussion let's assume LT, LJ and Alexander all pulled a Tiki at year's end. Would 3RR still make sense? Or would picks in the later rounds now have a distinct advantage. I do not believe we will encounter this situation in 2007, but it could occur in 2008 or 2009 or in some later year. What happens then, switch to 5RR or go back to a straight serpentine draft. The problem I see with 3RR is that it MAY only be a short term solution and MAY have to be altered year to year to compensate for a changing environment. There will always be players that will be desired in the early part of the draft, but the huge differential that currently exists for the 1st couple of players may not exist in a couple years. I do not believe the Contest benefits with annual changes to its basic format. Any change is disruptive and if changes become routine it MAY hurt the long term viability of the Contest. If a change is made IT better be the right one.

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by Route C:
One thing I really like about the 3RR is you can have a bottom 4 draft slot and not feel like you HAVE TO take at least 1 stud WR because you WILL get one or an awfully good RB3 with the reversal.
Also a good point. There's more strategy with this than the current system, where you are almost forced (unless your last name is Zwickel) to go RB/RB or RB/WR with those late picks.

[Route Collectors]

Originally posted by RiFF:
I believe based on the current pool of talent a reversal in the 3rd round makes the most sense. So, for 2007 3RR would seem appropriate. But, for sake of discussion let's assume LT, LJ and Alexander all pulled a Tiki at year's end. Would 3RR still make sense? Or would picks in the later rounds now have a distinct advantage. I do not believe we will encounter this situation in 2007, but it could occur in 2008 or 2009 or in some later year. What happens then, switch to 5RR or go back to a straight serpentine draft. The problem I see with 3RR is that it MAY only be a short term solution and MAY have to be altered year to year to compensate for a changing environment. There will always be players that will be desired in the early part of the draft, but the huge differential that currently exists for the 1st couple of players may not exist in a couple years. I do not believe the Contest benefits with annual changes to its basic format. Any change is disruptive and if changes become routine it MAY hurt the long term viability of the Contest. If a change is made IT better be the right one.
I really agree with this analysis. The tough thing is we can't accurately predict what the 2008, 2009 and beyond seasons will have in store.

Maybe this solution is more of a walk before you run scenario. Greg never said never to BBDS...he just said not now. If I had to label good/better and best and best IMO isn't yet available...then I'm going for better because at least it's an improvement. Agree?

[Sound Advice]

Can you imagine the Gekko's championship team with the switch at round 3?
LOL.
Instead of the Godfather, we'd have to call him the Pope.

[renman]

Riff,

That is the point I was making. This and last year we had clear advantages from being at the top of the draft board (which fuels much of this healthy discussion along with some paranoia) but not all years are like that. Going forward if we were to be changing the format it would be based on projections and perceptions. I am not sure we want to do that route either.

My question a few posts ago was what happens when we get to those seasons where there are not a couple players that stand out far and above the rest in round one. I do remember seasons where I did not want to be "saddled" with the 1st pick. I know there are seasons when one might prefer pick 14 and 15 over 1 and 28. During these seasons would we be giving too much of a penalty to those drafting at the top?

[ November 29, 2006, 11:24 AM: Message edited by: renman ]

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by RiFF:
I believe based on the current pool of talent a reversal in the 3rd round makes the most sense. So, for 2007 3RR would seem appropriate. But, for sake of discussion let's assume LT, LJ and Alexander all pulled a Tiki at year's end. Would 3RR still make sense? Or would picks in the later rounds now have a distinct advantage. I do not believe we will encounter this situation in 2007, but it could occur in 2008 or 2009 or in some later year. What happens then, switch to 5RR or go back to a straight serpentine draft. The problem I see with 3RR is that it MAY only be a short term solution and MAY have to be altered year to year to compensate for a changing environment. There will always be players that will be desired in the early part of the draft, but the huge differential that currently exists for the 1st couple of players may not exist in a couple years. I do not believe the Contest benefits with annual changes to its basic format. Any change is disruptive and if changes become routine it MAY hurt the long term viability of the Contest. If a change is made IT better be the right one.
Let me just say that I DON'T see this as a 1-year phenomenon and that 3RR would work for each past year and each year going forward. Why do I say that? Because having the first and second picks is obviously an advantage and then having 28-29 or 27-30 is another huge advantage for those teams. When you then go 1, 28, 42, it obviously levels the playing field for the back-end teams that now will go 14, 15, 29. EVERY year that will balance things out whether LT is LT or if he becomes Marshall Faulk of 2002.

It's interesting that some folks are asking if we're now giving TOO MUCH value to the back-end teams. Well, does anyone really believe that 19 of 32 of our top scoring teams next year will come from those last three draft spots? Right now that is the equation for the first three draft spots, so maybe we should look at some changes. This is one possible change.

It's a small change, but the third round is very key for all teams and at the very least the perception of teams that get later picks aren't so handcuffed anymore. They have that third round advantage now.

I believe it does hurt 4 and 5 slightly (6 moves 3 spots in the third round) and that deserves some consideration. But this is not a 1-year fix because of what happened this year. This is an idea that has merit for those of us who have played fantasy football for two decades and have seen the top picks in football benefit slightly. Maybe this is a solution. Maybe it's not.

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by RiFF:
There will always be players that will be desired in the early part of the draft, but the huge differential that currently exists for the 1st couple of players may not exist in a couple years.For as long as I can remember, there's always been a Top 3 or 4 or 5, then a drop-off. Someone like UFS probably has data on this to prove it. True, it's never been as precipitous as it is right now, but that desire for a top pick will always ring true.

With 3RR, I still believe that most people would like Tomlinson, Johnson or Alexander in 2007 -- even with the 3rd and 5th round "penalty." Whatever the case, it certainly won't be 100% like it is under the current system.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by King of Queens:
[QUOTE]Greg, do you have Top 70 ADP figures from 2004 and 2005? It might help to see the differences had 3RR/KDS been in play. It would also let us know if SNAKE's "24-46 talent drop-off" is an accurate representation of the truth.
I thought I had 2005 ADP, but I can't find that now. I'll keep looking. Sorry.