Okay, back on topic - my view is that THE fairest method would be too complicated for people to handle right away (=equalizing all draft picks by changing the order every pair of rounds so that all teams draft once from each spot; second from each spot; etc last from each).
Absent that the 3RR+KDS is absolutely the best that can be done to equalize the draft picks for as many slots as possible and give each owner input as to their draft slot preferences.
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
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ultimatefs
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3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by King of Queens:
2006 ADP under existing serpentine system:
1. LJ, Owens, Wayne, Evans, Heap
2. LT2, Chambers, Gates, Galloway, Brady
3. SA, Chester, Palmer, DJax, Horn
4. Tiki, R.Moss, Ry.Williams, A.Johnson, McAllister
5. Brown, Dunn, J.Jones, F.Taylor, McNabb
6. SJax, K.Jones, Droughns, T.Bell, Hasselbeck
7. Jordan, Bush, Foster, Shockey, R.Smith
8. Rudi, Boldin, Gore, J.Walker, Gonzalez
9. E.James, Harrison, Driver, Rhodes, T.Glenn
10. C.Williams, Portis, Ward, A.Green, Addai
11. C.Johnson, Westbrook, Burress, M.Bell, E.Manning
12. S.Smith, Fitzgerald, Dillon, Mason, Maroney
13. McGahee, Holt, J.Lewis, Houshmandzadeh, Lundy
14. Parker, P.Manning, S.Moss, T.Jones, Stallworth
2006 ADP using 3RR (reverse beginning Round 3):
1. LJ, Owens, S.Moss, T.Jones, Stallworth
2. LT2, Chambers, J.Lewis, Houshmandzadeh, Lundy
3. SA, Chester, Dillon, Mason, Maroney
4. Tiki, R.Moss, Burress, M.Bell, E.Manning
5. Brown, Dunn, Ward, A.Green, Addai
6. SJax, K.Jones, Driver, Rhodes, T.Glenn
7. Jordan, Bush, Gore, J.Walker, Gonzalez
8. Rudi, Boldin, Foster, Shockey, R.Smith
9. E.James, Harrison, Droughns, T.Bell, Hasselbeck
10. C.Williams, Portis, J.Jones, F.Taylor, McNabb
11. C.Johnson, Westbrook, Ry.Williams, A.Johnson, McAllister
12. S.Smith, Fitzgerald, Palmer, DJax, Horn
13. McGahee, Holt, Gates, Galloway, Brady
14. Parker, P.Manning, Wayne, Evans, Heap
Beginning the reverse in the 5th round would provide only a marginal difference. 3rd round makes more sense, but perhaps another switch later on (9th round or 11th round) back to the original 1-14 would even things off a bit. The downside there is that you are overcomplicating things. Switching later is irreleveant. Teams are picking for need at that time. ADP's at that time always show these picks could be had by anyone those rounds.
Good work on the data!
2006 ADP under existing serpentine system:
1. LJ, Owens, Wayne, Evans, Heap
2. LT2, Chambers, Gates, Galloway, Brady
3. SA, Chester, Palmer, DJax, Horn
4. Tiki, R.Moss, Ry.Williams, A.Johnson, McAllister
5. Brown, Dunn, J.Jones, F.Taylor, McNabb
6. SJax, K.Jones, Droughns, T.Bell, Hasselbeck
7. Jordan, Bush, Foster, Shockey, R.Smith
8. Rudi, Boldin, Gore, J.Walker, Gonzalez
9. E.James, Harrison, Driver, Rhodes, T.Glenn
10. C.Williams, Portis, Ward, A.Green, Addai
11. C.Johnson, Westbrook, Burress, M.Bell, E.Manning
12. S.Smith, Fitzgerald, Dillon, Mason, Maroney
13. McGahee, Holt, J.Lewis, Houshmandzadeh, Lundy
14. Parker, P.Manning, S.Moss, T.Jones, Stallworth
2006 ADP using 3RR (reverse beginning Round 3):
1. LJ, Owens, S.Moss, T.Jones, Stallworth
2. LT2, Chambers, J.Lewis, Houshmandzadeh, Lundy
3. SA, Chester, Dillon, Mason, Maroney
4. Tiki, R.Moss, Burress, M.Bell, E.Manning
5. Brown, Dunn, Ward, A.Green, Addai
6. SJax, K.Jones, Driver, Rhodes, T.Glenn
7. Jordan, Bush, Gore, J.Walker, Gonzalez
8. Rudi, Boldin, Foster, Shockey, R.Smith
9. E.James, Harrison, Droughns, T.Bell, Hasselbeck
10. C.Williams, Portis, J.Jones, F.Taylor, McNabb
11. C.Johnson, Westbrook, Ry.Williams, A.Johnson, McAllister
12. S.Smith, Fitzgerald, Palmer, DJax, Horn
13. McGahee, Holt, Gates, Galloway, Brady
14. Parker, P.Manning, Wayne, Evans, Heap
Beginning the reverse in the 5th round would provide only a marginal difference. 3rd round makes more sense, but perhaps another switch later on (9th round or 11th round) back to the original 1-14 would even things off a bit. The downside there is that you are overcomplicating things. Switching later is irreleveant. Teams are picking for need at that time. ADP's at that time always show these picks could be had by anyone those rounds.
Good work on the data!
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
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ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
quote: quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by King of Queens:
2006 ADP using 3RR (reverse beginning Round 3):
1. LJ, Owens, S.Moss, T.Jones, Stallworth
2. LT2, Chambers, J.Lewis, Houshmandzadeh, Lundy
3. SA, Chester, Dillon, Mason, Maroney
4. Tiki, R.Moss, Burress, M.Bell, E.Manning
5. Brown, Dunn, Ward, A.Green, Addai
6. SJax, K.Jones, Driver, Rhodes, T.Glenn
7. Jordan, Bush, Gore, J.Walker, Gonzalez
8. Rudi, Boldin, Foster, Shockey, R.Smith
9. E.James, Harrison, Droughns, T.Bell, Hasselbeck
10. C.Williams, Portis, J.Jones, F.Taylor, McNabb
11. C.Johnson, Westbrook, Ry.Williams, A.Johnson, McAllister
12. S.Smith, Fitzgerald, Palmer, DJax, Horn
13. McGahee, Holt, Gates, Galloway, Brady
14. Parker, P.Manning, Wayne, Evans, Heap
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now that's good analysis. There is NO QUESTION that 12, 13 and 14 have been helped greatly by the 3RR and yet they do lose some value in the fourth round. It certainly makes those final draft slots more desireable.
Have we hurt 1-3 too much? Probably not. 7-8 obviously isn't affected and 9, 10 and 11 are helped a little. Thoughts on 4 through 6??
It is a nice data and very well done (kudos) but analysis it is not.
Do this 25-50-100 more times with 14 people drafting and then it could be considered analysis. IMO, ADP gets thrown out the window in round 3 and beyond as that is where drafters start throwing darts and going after players they covet. [/QUOTE]You can really say this after looking at NFFC ADP this year? Come on.
Please look at 29-32 and tell me those are darts.
quote: quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by King of Queens:
2006 ADP using 3RR (reverse beginning Round 3):
1. LJ, Owens, S.Moss, T.Jones, Stallworth
2. LT2, Chambers, J.Lewis, Houshmandzadeh, Lundy
3. SA, Chester, Dillon, Mason, Maroney
4. Tiki, R.Moss, Burress, M.Bell, E.Manning
5. Brown, Dunn, Ward, A.Green, Addai
6. SJax, K.Jones, Driver, Rhodes, T.Glenn
7. Jordan, Bush, Gore, J.Walker, Gonzalez
8. Rudi, Boldin, Foster, Shockey, R.Smith
9. E.James, Harrison, Droughns, T.Bell, Hasselbeck
10. C.Williams, Portis, J.Jones, F.Taylor, McNabb
11. C.Johnson, Westbrook, Ry.Williams, A.Johnson, McAllister
12. S.Smith, Fitzgerald, Palmer, DJax, Horn
13. McGahee, Holt, Gates, Galloway, Brady
14. Parker, P.Manning, Wayne, Evans, Heap
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now that's good analysis. There is NO QUESTION that 12, 13 and 14 have been helped greatly by the 3RR and yet they do lose some value in the fourth round. It certainly makes those final draft slots more desireable.
Have we hurt 1-3 too much? Probably not. 7-8 obviously isn't affected and 9, 10 and 11 are helped a little. Thoughts on 4 through 6??
It is a nice data and very well done (kudos) but analysis it is not.
Do this 25-50-100 more times with 14 people drafting and then it could be considered analysis. IMO, ADP gets thrown out the window in round 3 and beyond as that is where drafters start throwing darts and going after players they covet. [/QUOTE]You can really say this after looking at NFFC ADP this year? Come on.
Please look at 29-32 and tell me those are darts.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
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Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 36410
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by King of Queens:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Rich, what were the three least desirable picks in 2006? I can answer that question --
(1) Anything other than picks 1-3
(2) Anything other than picks 1-3
(3) Anything other than picks 1-3
[/QUOTE]When you compare where we are now to 3RR/KDS, the middle picks need discussing because we all agree it equalizes for a bit the top three spots and the bottom three spots. How about the middle 8?
1) Pick 7 moves from 35 to 36, but then moves up to 49 from 50.
2) Pick 8 moves from 36 to 35, but then moves down from 49 to 50.
3) Pick 6 moves from 34 to 37 and then from 51 to 48.
4) Pick 9 moves from 38 to 33 and then from 47 to 52.
5) Pick 5 moves from 33 to 38 and then from 52 to 47.
6) Pick 10 moves from 38 to 33 and then from 47 to 52.
7) Pick 4 moves from 32 to 39 and from 53 to 46.
8) And Pick 11 moves from 39 to 32 and from 46 to 53.
Is this fair or not? After Round 4, then the talent seems to be more even and owners go after players and positions they need and want. So Round 3 is the area to target if a serviceable change is to be made. Just my two cents.
[ November 29, 2006, 12:58 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Rich, what were the three least desirable picks in 2006? I can answer that question --
(1) Anything other than picks 1-3
(2) Anything other than picks 1-3
(3) Anything other than picks 1-3
[/QUOTE]When you compare where we are now to 3RR/KDS, the middle picks need discussing because we all agree it equalizes for a bit the top three spots and the bottom three spots. How about the middle 8?1) Pick 7 moves from 35 to 36, but then moves up to 49 from 50.
2) Pick 8 moves from 36 to 35, but then moves down from 49 to 50.
3) Pick 6 moves from 34 to 37 and then from 51 to 48.
4) Pick 9 moves from 38 to 33 and then from 47 to 52.
5) Pick 5 moves from 33 to 38 and then from 52 to 47.
6) Pick 10 moves from 38 to 33 and then from 47 to 52.
7) Pick 4 moves from 32 to 39 and from 53 to 46.
8) And Pick 11 moves from 39 to 32 and from 46 to 53.
Is this fair or not? After Round 4, then the talent seems to be more even and owners go after players and positions they need and want. So Round 3 is the area to target if a serviceable change is to be made. Just my two cents.
[ November 29, 2006, 12:58 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by RiFF:
I suspect there is a very real possibilty picks 4, 5, and 6 will be even less desirable in 2007 than were the 3 least desirable picks in 2006. ... I'd be willing to bet that 4-5-6 would NOT be least desirable as measured by actual KDS results ...
A portion of fantasy players would have a couple of guys in the 1st round that they REALLY want --- anyone for Steven Jackson or Kevin Jones in '07?? -- and would perceive dropping down a few spots in the 3rd as a minor inconvenience that they would overcome by grabbing a guy that they believe is undervalued, and they would be getting a better pick in the 4th.
I do believe there will be a contingent that absolutely don't want those slots, but they will not be a majority and thus the odds of them getting "stuck" with a 4 or 5 slot would be rare, if it happened at all. I suspect a huge number of players got "stuck" with a 10-14 pick they didnt want this year, and most of those would have far preferred getting stuck with a 4-6 with 3RR.
I suspect there is a very real possibilty picks 4, 5, and 6 will be even less desirable in 2007 than were the 3 least desirable picks in 2006. ... I'd be willing to bet that 4-5-6 would NOT be least desirable as measured by actual KDS results ...
A portion of fantasy players would have a couple of guys in the 1st round that they REALLY want --- anyone for Steven Jackson or Kevin Jones in '07?? -- and would perceive dropping down a few spots in the 3rd as a minor inconvenience that they would overcome by grabbing a guy that they believe is undervalued, and they would be getting a better pick in the 4th.
I do believe there will be a contingent that absolutely don't want those slots, but they will not be a majority and thus the odds of them getting "stuck" with a 4 or 5 slot would be rare, if it happened at all. I suspect a huge number of players got "stuck" with a 10-14 pick they didnt want this year, and most of those would have far preferred getting stuck with a 4-6 with 3RR.
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ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by King of Queens:
quote:Originally posted by SNAKE:
...sorry as SNAKE ain't buying the compromise of KDS/3RR here for the SIMPLE FACT that granted this year it might have made a difference because this year there was CLEARLY a sizeable talent dropoff after the top 32 players ISHO...that fact will change from year to year and has fluctuated anywhere between 24-46 players in any given year in the last 5 years alone...Greg, do you have Top 70 ADP figures from 2004 and 2005? It might help to see the differences had 3RR/KDS been in play. It would also let us know if SNAKE's "24-46 talent drop-off" is an accurate representation of the truth.
If I recall, in 2005 there were 5 WRs to target (Holt, Moss, Johnson, Owens, Harrison) in the 2nd round. 2005 NFFC Champ Josh Ferenc drafted 1st and took Tomlinson, and then was able to secure two of these 5 WRs. Sure, he had a great draft after that (T.Jones, S.Moss, etc.), but getting two of those top 5 WRs was a huge difference maker. All it took was a couple of unorthodox picks ahead of him in the second round to make that happen. With 3RR, this would not have happened. [/QUOTE]Word of caution...again..
Draft strategies would change SIGNIFICANTLY.
Using old data is not very wise.
Yes, I know that goes against post above, but players LIKE THEM FALL to TOP 1-4 teams in Rd 3 every year.
quote:Originally posted by SNAKE:
...sorry as SNAKE ain't buying the compromise of KDS/3RR here for the SIMPLE FACT that granted this year it might have made a difference because this year there was CLEARLY a sizeable talent dropoff after the top 32 players ISHO...that fact will change from year to year and has fluctuated anywhere between 24-46 players in any given year in the last 5 years alone...Greg, do you have Top 70 ADP figures from 2004 and 2005? It might help to see the differences had 3RR/KDS been in play. It would also let us know if SNAKE's "24-46 talent drop-off" is an accurate representation of the truth.
If I recall, in 2005 there were 5 WRs to target (Holt, Moss, Johnson, Owens, Harrison) in the 2nd round. 2005 NFFC Champ Josh Ferenc drafted 1st and took Tomlinson, and then was able to secure two of these 5 WRs. Sure, he had a great draft after that (T.Jones, S.Moss, etc.), but getting two of those top 5 WRs was a huge difference maker. All it took was a couple of unorthodox picks ahead of him in the second round to make that happen. With 3RR, this would not have happened. [/QUOTE]Word of caution...again..
Draft strategies would change SIGNIFICANTLY.
Using old data is not very wise.
Yes, I know that goes against post above, but players LIKE THEM FALL to TOP 1-4 teams in Rd 3 every year.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
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ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by Route C:
One thing I really like about the 3RR is you can have a bottom 4 draft slot and not feel like you HAVE TO take at least 1 stud WR because you WILL get one or an awfully good RB3 with the reversal.
One thing I hate about drafting near the back is the pressure to draft defensively instead of building my team the way I want to. Under the current format if I'm picking 11th and 12/13/14 all go RB/RB then I almost have to pick WR/WR or at least RB/WR just to help prevent the top 3 from starting out so strong. Even at that...I'm still playing catch up for the rest of the draft.
I say all this as an LT owner this year. Very nice.
The other thing I hate is the top picks don't have to make TOUGH decisions in first three rounds like other picks.
This debate has me know thinking this that is BY FAR the most important reason to switch.
That's really the even playing field we all desire.
One thing I really like about the 3RR is you can have a bottom 4 draft slot and not feel like you HAVE TO take at least 1 stud WR because you WILL get one or an awfully good RB3 with the reversal.
One thing I hate about drafting near the back is the pressure to draft defensively instead of building my team the way I want to. Under the current format if I'm picking 11th and 12/13/14 all go RB/RB then I almost have to pick WR/WR or at least RB/WR just to help prevent the top 3 from starting out so strong. Even at that...I'm still playing catch up for the rest of the draft.
I say all this as an LT owner this year. Very nice.
The other thing I hate is the top picks don't have to make TOUGH decisions in first three rounds like other picks.
This debate has me know thinking this that is BY FAR the most important reason to switch.
That's really the even playing field we all desire.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
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Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 36410
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by Captain Hook:
Okay, back on topic - my view is that THE fairest method would be too complicated for people to handle right away (=equalizing all draft picks by changing the order every pair of rounds so that all teams draft once from each spot; second from each spot; etc last from each).
Absent that the 3RR+KDS is absolutely the best that can be done to equalize the draft picks for as many slots as possible and give each owner input as to their draft slot preferences. Interesting Perry. This has to be done simple if at all, and changing one round can certainly be understood by the masses. For Tom and I, the key is informing everyone about this change and getting them to set KDS preferences because this would now be a big part of the Draft Day process. But it looks like more than a few veteran fantasy football participants see some upside with this concept.
Okay, back on topic - my view is that THE fairest method would be too complicated for people to handle right away (=equalizing all draft picks by changing the order every pair of rounds so that all teams draft once from each spot; second from each spot; etc last from each).
Absent that the 3RR+KDS is absolutely the best that can be done to equalize the draft picks for as many slots as possible and give each owner input as to their draft slot preferences. Interesting Perry. This has to be done simple if at all, and changing one round can certainly be understood by the masses. For Tom and I, the key is informing everyone about this change and getting them to set KDS preferences because this would now be a big part of the Draft Day process. But it looks like more than a few veteran fantasy football participants see some upside with this concept.
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I suspect there is a very real possibilty picks 4, 5, and 6 will be even less desirable in 2007 than were the 3 least desirable picks in 2006. ... I'd be willing to bet that 4-5-6 would NOT be least desirable as measured by actual KDS results ...
A portion of fantasy players would have a couple of guys in the 1st round that they REALLY want --- anyone for Steven Jackson or Kevin Jones in '07?? -- and would perceive dropping down a few spots in the 3rd as a minor inconvenience that they would overcome by grabbing a guy that they believe is undervalued, and they would be getting a better pick in the 4th.
I do believe there will be a contingent that absolutely don't want those slots, but they will not be a majority and thus the odds of them getting "stuck" with a 4 or 5 slot would be rare, if it happened at all. I suspect a huge number of players got "stuck" with a 10-14 pick they didnt want this year, and most of those would have far preferred getting stuck with a 4-6 with 3RR. [/QUOTE]We can agree...too disagree.
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I suspect there is a very real possibilty picks 4, 5, and 6 will be even less desirable in 2007 than were the 3 least desirable picks in 2006. ... I'd be willing to bet that 4-5-6 would NOT be least desirable as measured by actual KDS results ...
A portion of fantasy players would have a couple of guys in the 1st round that they REALLY want --- anyone for Steven Jackson or Kevin Jones in '07?? -- and would perceive dropping down a few spots in the 3rd as a minor inconvenience that they would overcome by grabbing a guy that they believe is undervalued, and they would be getting a better pick in the 4th.
I do believe there will be a contingent that absolutely don't want those slots, but they will not be a majority and thus the odds of them getting "stuck" with a 4 or 5 slot would be rare, if it happened at all. I suspect a huge number of players got "stuck" with a 10-14 pick they didnt want this year, and most of those would have far preferred getting stuck with a 4-6 with 3RR. [/QUOTE]We can agree...too disagree.
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I suspect there is a very real possibilty picks 4, 5, and 6 will be even less desirable in 2007 than were the 3 least desirable picks in 2006. ... I'd be willing to bet that 4-5-6 would NOT be least desirable as measured by actual KDS results ...
A portion of fantasy players would have a couple of guys in the 1st round that they REALLY want --- anyone for Steven Jackson or Kevin Jones in '07?? -- and would perceive dropping down a few spots in the 3rd as a minor inconvenience that they would overcome by grabbing a guy that they believe is undervalued, and they would be getting a better pick in the 4th.
I do believe there will be a contingent that absolutely don't want those slots, but they will not be a majority and thus the odds of them getting "stuck" with a 4 or 5 slot would be rare, if it happened at all. I suspect a huge number of players got "stuck" with a 10-14 pick they didnt want this year, and most of those would have far preferred getting stuck with a 4-6 with 3RR. [/QUOTE]We can agree...too disagree. [/QUOTE]What do you disagree with Riff? Do you believe that everyone will perceive 4-6 as the worst slots? If so, yeah we disagree.
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I suspect there is a very real possibilty picks 4, 5, and 6 will be even less desirable in 2007 than were the 3 least desirable picks in 2006. ... I'd be willing to bet that 4-5-6 would NOT be least desirable as measured by actual KDS results ...
A portion of fantasy players would have a couple of guys in the 1st round that they REALLY want --- anyone for Steven Jackson or Kevin Jones in '07?? -- and would perceive dropping down a few spots in the 3rd as a minor inconvenience that they would overcome by grabbing a guy that they believe is undervalued, and they would be getting a better pick in the 4th.
I do believe there will be a contingent that absolutely don't want those slots, but they will not be a majority and thus the odds of them getting "stuck" with a 4 or 5 slot would be rare, if it happened at all. I suspect a huge number of players got "stuck" with a 10-14 pick they didnt want this year, and most of those would have far preferred getting stuck with a 4-6 with 3RR. [/QUOTE]We can agree...too disagree. [/QUOTE]What do you disagree with Riff? Do you believe that everyone will perceive 4-6 as the worst slots? If so, yeah we disagree.