Originally posted by Route C:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I believe based on the current pool of talent a reversal in the 3rd round makes the most sense. So, for 2007 3RR would seem appropriate. But, for sake of discussion let's assume LT, LJ and Alexander all pulled a Tiki at year's end. Would 3RR still make sense? Or would picks in the later rounds now have a distinct advantage. I do not believe we will encounter this situation in 2007, but it could occur in 2008 or 2009 or in some later year. What happens then, switch to 5RR or go back to a straight serpentine draft. The problem I see with 3RR is that it MAY only be a short term solution and MAY have to be altered year to year to compensate for a changing environment. There will always be players that will be desired in the early part of the draft, but the huge differential that currently exists for the 1st couple of players may not exist in a couple years. I do not believe the Contest benefits with annual changes to its basic format. Any change is disruptive and if changes become routine it MAY hurt the long term viability of the Contest. If a change is made IT better be the right one.
I really agree with this analysis. The tough thing is we can't accurately predict what the 2008, 2009 and beyond seasons will have in store.
Maybe this solution is more of a walk before you run scenario. Greg never said never to BBDS...he just said not now. If I had to label good/better and best and best IMO isn't yet available...then I'm going for better because at least it's an improvement. Agree? [/QUOTE]I don't think there will ever be a year where you would have more KDS at #14 than #1 with 3rr.
Right now, KDS for top 3 was in the 95% range. That will NEVER change if you leave things the same.
All 3rr is knock this down to 55-65% IMO.
This isn't about LT.
The #1 pick already falls into the #1 slots lap.
Why should the 29th pick fall into their lap too?
It's THAT pick that makes it 95% KDS.
It's not the 57th pick to start round 5.
It's not the 113th pick to start roind 9.
Those picks won't change a thing.
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
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ultimatefs
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3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
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williamhare
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3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Greg, Perry--
See my post under "NFFC week #12" p. 14. I agree
the middle rounds can not be left out of the
re-distrib of buying power. This can be
presented to the masses in one paragraph. Will
just need alert facilitators.
Bill/HMAN83
See my post under "NFFC week #12" p. 14. I agree
the middle rounds can not be left out of the
re-distrib of buying power. This can be
presented to the masses in one paragraph. Will
just need alert facilitators.
Bill/HMAN83
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ultimatefs
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- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by Sound Advice:
Can you imagine the Gekko's championship team with the switch at round 3?
LOL.
Instead of the Godfather, we'd have to call him the Pope. GG had agreat draft and great FAAB pickups.
He key drafted player was Muhammad, who would not have been affected by this 3rr.
Can you imagine the Gekko's championship team with the switch at round 3?
LOL.
Instead of the Godfather, we'd have to call him the Pope. GG had agreat draft and great FAAB pickups.
He key drafted player was Muhammad, who would not have been affected by this 3rr.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
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Greg Ambrosius
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3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
It's interesting to note that MockDraftCentral.com can accommodate this 3RR setup for us, so there's no concern about doing this with the satellite leagues. I'm certainly interested in that for 2007. We'll see about all of them or the live drafts.
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
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ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I believe based on the current pool of talent a reversal in the 3rd round makes the most sense. So, for 2007 3RR would seem appropriate. But, for sake of discussion let's assume LT, LJ and Alexander all pulled a Tiki at year's end. Would 3RR still make sense? Or would picks in the later rounds now have a distinct advantage. I do not believe we will encounter this situation in 2007, but it could occur in 2008 or 2009 or in some later year. What happens then, switch to 5RR or go back to a straight serpentine draft. The problem I see with 3RR is that it MAY only be a short term solution and MAY have to be altered year to year to compensate for a changing environment. There will always be players that will be desired in the early part of the draft, but the huge differential that currently exists for the 1st couple of players may not exist in a couple years. I do not believe the Contest benefits with annual changes to its basic format. Any change is disruptive and if changes become routine it MAY hurt the long term viability of the Contest. If a change is made IT better be the right one.
Let me just say that I DON'T see this as a 1-year phenomenon and that 3RR would work for each past year and each year going forward. Why do I say that? Because having the first and second picks is obviously an advantage and then having 28-29 or 27-30 is another huge advantage for those teams. When you then go 1, 28, 42, it obviously levels the playing field for the back-end teams that now will go 14, 15, 29. EVERY year that will balance things out whether LT is LT or if he becomes Marshall Faulk of 2002.
It's interesting that some folks are asking if we're now giving TOO MUCH value to the back-end teams. Well, does anyone really believe that 19 of 32 of our top scoring teams next year will come from those last three draft spots? Right now that is the equation for the first three draft spots, so maybe we should look at some changes. This is one possible change.
It's a small change, but the third round is very key for all teams and at the very least the perception of teams that get later picks aren't so handcuffed anymore. They have that third round advantage now.
I believe it does hurt 4 and 5 slightly (6 moves 3 spots in the third round) and that deserves some consideration. But this is not a 1-year fix because of what happened this year. This is an idea that has merit for those of us who have played fantasy football for two decades and have seen the top picks in football benefit slightly. Maybe this is a solution. Maybe it's not. [/QUOTE]I posted this on the other thread..
The 19 would be down to 12-13 IMO. The LT performance is one for the ages and you're going to see uneven distribution on these occurences.
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I believe based on the current pool of talent a reversal in the 3rd round makes the most sense. So, for 2007 3RR would seem appropriate. But, for sake of discussion let's assume LT, LJ and Alexander all pulled a Tiki at year's end. Would 3RR still make sense? Or would picks in the later rounds now have a distinct advantage. I do not believe we will encounter this situation in 2007, but it could occur in 2008 or 2009 or in some later year. What happens then, switch to 5RR or go back to a straight serpentine draft. The problem I see with 3RR is that it MAY only be a short term solution and MAY have to be altered year to year to compensate for a changing environment. There will always be players that will be desired in the early part of the draft, but the huge differential that currently exists for the 1st couple of players may not exist in a couple years. I do not believe the Contest benefits with annual changes to its basic format. Any change is disruptive and if changes become routine it MAY hurt the long term viability of the Contest. If a change is made IT better be the right one.
Let me just say that I DON'T see this as a 1-year phenomenon and that 3RR would work for each past year and each year going forward. Why do I say that? Because having the first and second picks is obviously an advantage and then having 28-29 or 27-30 is another huge advantage for those teams. When you then go 1, 28, 42, it obviously levels the playing field for the back-end teams that now will go 14, 15, 29. EVERY year that will balance things out whether LT is LT or if he becomes Marshall Faulk of 2002.
It's interesting that some folks are asking if we're now giving TOO MUCH value to the back-end teams. Well, does anyone really believe that 19 of 32 of our top scoring teams next year will come from those last three draft spots? Right now that is the equation for the first three draft spots, so maybe we should look at some changes. This is one possible change.
It's a small change, but the third round is very key for all teams and at the very least the perception of teams that get later picks aren't so handcuffed anymore. They have that third round advantage now.
I believe it does hurt 4 and 5 slightly (6 moves 3 spots in the third round) and that deserves some consideration. But this is not a 1-year fix because of what happened this year. This is an idea that has merit for those of us who have played fantasy football for two decades and have seen the top picks in football benefit slightly. Maybe this is a solution. Maybe it's not. [/QUOTE]I posted this on the other thread..
The 19 would be down to 12-13 IMO. The LT performance is one for the ages and you're going to see uneven distribution on these occurences.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
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Greg Ambrosius
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3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Okay, I think it's time to do a mock draft for about 7 rounds and see how the players look. Only serious candidates please as I want to see the top 100 players drafted correctly. Everyone is talking about the poor fourth spot, so let's see what happens with Stephen Jackson (assuming, of course) and the rest of the picks.
I would need KDS from those 14 owners as well, so the draft won't happen tomorrow or even this week. The KDS will be a subject for scrutiny as well. I'll start a separate thread to seek the participants and nail down a date middle of next week to do this. Sound good?
I would need KDS from those 14 owners as well, so the draft won't happen tomorrow or even this week. The KDS will be a subject for scrutiny as well. I'll start a separate thread to seek the participants and nail down a date middle of next week to do this. Sound good?
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
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ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I believe based on the current pool of talent a reversal in the 3rd round makes the most sense. So, for 2007 3RR would seem appropriate. But, for sake of discussion let's assume LT, LJ and Alexander all pulled a Tiki at year's end. Would 3RR still make sense? Or would picks in the later rounds now have a distinct advantage. I do not believe we will encounter this situation in 2007, but it could occur in 2008 or 2009 or in some later year. What happens then, switch to 5RR or go back to a straight serpentine draft. The problem I see with 3RR is that it MAY only be a short term solution and MAY have to be altered year to year to compensate for a changing environment. There will always be players that will be desired in the early part of the draft, but the huge differential that currently exists for the 1st couple of players may not exist in a couple years. I do not believe the Contest benefits with annual changes to its basic format. Any change is disruptive and if changes become routine it MAY hurt the long term viability of the Contest. If a change is made IT better be the right one.
Let me just say that I DON'T see this as a 1-year phenomenon and that 3RR would work for each past year and each year going forward. Why do I say that? Because having the first and second picks is obviously an advantage and then having 28-29 or 27-30 is another huge advantage for those teams. When you then go 1, 28, 42, it obviously levels the playing field for the back-end teams that now will go 14, 15, 29. EVERY year that will balance things out whether LT is LT or if he becomes Marshall Faulk of 2002.
It's interesting that some folks are asking if we're now giving TOO MUCH value to the back-end teams. Well, does anyone really believe that 19 of 32 of our top scoring teams next year will come from those last three draft spots? Right now that is the equation for the first three draft spots, so maybe we should look at some changes. This is one possible change.
It's a small change, but the third round is very key for all teams and at the very least the perception of teams that get later picks aren't so handcuffed anymore. They have that third round advantage now.
I believe it does hurt 4 and 5 slightly (6 moves 3 spots in the third round) and that deserves some consideration. But this is not a 1-year fix because of what happened this year. This is an idea that has merit for those of us who have played fantasy football for two decades and have seen the top picks in football benefit slightly. Maybe this is a solution. Maybe it's not. [/QUOTE]You have played FF far longer than I have so I will trust your assessment that there is ALWAYS an advantage to being in the first few draft slots.
The point I do disagree with is that reversing the 3rd round in a "small" change. I believe its much more significant and that based on the CURRENT pool of talent helps to level the playing field. My concern would be in years beyond 2007 and what this change may mean. If you can unequivoically state that it will ALWAYS have the same desired effect, than you are in the wrong business. And don't put words into my mouth, I didn't say we may be giving too much advantage to later picks, I said there is a possibilty this may occur in the future with this change. [/QUOTE]Player performances in FF are way too unpredictable for this to be a "significant" change.
It's not going to make #14 the majority #1 KDS choice. That's just not going to happen.
All 3rr does is swing from the WAYYYYYY left to closer to the middle. That's all it does.
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I believe based on the current pool of talent a reversal in the 3rd round makes the most sense. So, for 2007 3RR would seem appropriate. But, for sake of discussion let's assume LT, LJ and Alexander all pulled a Tiki at year's end. Would 3RR still make sense? Or would picks in the later rounds now have a distinct advantage. I do not believe we will encounter this situation in 2007, but it could occur in 2008 or 2009 or in some later year. What happens then, switch to 5RR or go back to a straight serpentine draft. The problem I see with 3RR is that it MAY only be a short term solution and MAY have to be altered year to year to compensate for a changing environment. There will always be players that will be desired in the early part of the draft, but the huge differential that currently exists for the 1st couple of players may not exist in a couple years. I do not believe the Contest benefits with annual changes to its basic format. Any change is disruptive and if changes become routine it MAY hurt the long term viability of the Contest. If a change is made IT better be the right one.
Let me just say that I DON'T see this as a 1-year phenomenon and that 3RR would work for each past year and each year going forward. Why do I say that? Because having the first and second picks is obviously an advantage and then having 28-29 or 27-30 is another huge advantage for those teams. When you then go 1, 28, 42, it obviously levels the playing field for the back-end teams that now will go 14, 15, 29. EVERY year that will balance things out whether LT is LT or if he becomes Marshall Faulk of 2002.
It's interesting that some folks are asking if we're now giving TOO MUCH value to the back-end teams. Well, does anyone really believe that 19 of 32 of our top scoring teams next year will come from those last three draft spots? Right now that is the equation for the first three draft spots, so maybe we should look at some changes. This is one possible change.
It's a small change, but the third round is very key for all teams and at the very least the perception of teams that get later picks aren't so handcuffed anymore. They have that third round advantage now.
I believe it does hurt 4 and 5 slightly (6 moves 3 spots in the third round) and that deserves some consideration. But this is not a 1-year fix because of what happened this year. This is an idea that has merit for those of us who have played fantasy football for two decades and have seen the top picks in football benefit slightly. Maybe this is a solution. Maybe it's not. [/QUOTE]You have played FF far longer than I have so I will trust your assessment that there is ALWAYS an advantage to being in the first few draft slots.
The point I do disagree with is that reversing the 3rd round in a "small" change. I believe its much more significant and that based on the CURRENT pool of talent helps to level the playing field. My concern would be in years beyond 2007 and what this change may mean. If you can unequivoically state that it will ALWAYS have the same desired effect, than you are in the wrong business. And don't put words into my mouth, I didn't say we may be giving too much advantage to later picks, I said there is a possibilty this may occur in the future with this change. [/QUOTE]Player performances in FF are way too unpredictable for this to be a "significant" change.
It's not going to make #14 the majority #1 KDS choice. That's just not going to happen.
All 3rr does is swing from the WAYYYYYY left to closer to the middle. That's all it does.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
[]What do you disagree with Riff? Do you believe that everyone will perceive 4-6 as the worst slots? If so, yeah we disagree. Of course everyone won't. Just like in 2006 everyone didn't think slot 13 or 14 was the worst. As Greg indicated, some participants actually chose those slots as their most favored. I do believe the middle slots... 5, 6 and probably 4 will be viewed as less desirable overall under 3RR than were the 2 or 3 least desirable slots in 2006.
[]What do you disagree with Riff? Do you believe that everyone will perceive 4-6 as the worst slots? If so, yeah we disagree. Of course everyone won't. Just like in 2006 everyone didn't think slot 13 or 14 was the worst. As Greg indicated, some participants actually chose those slots as their most favored. I do believe the middle slots... 5, 6 and probably 4 will be viewed as less desirable overall under 3RR than were the 2 or 3 least desirable slots in 2006.
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ultimatefs
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3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by Team Canada:
I'm all for it anything to help equalize the top pick advantage is a step in the right direction. Good point. Many choose 1-14 by design.
I'm all for it anything to help equalize the top pick advantage is a step in the right direction. Good point. Many choose 1-14 by design.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
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ultimatefs
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3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
It's interesting to note that MockDraftCentral.com can accommodate this 3RR setup for us, so there's no concern about doing this with the satellite leagues. I'm certainly interested in that for 2007. We'll see about all of them or the live drafts. Yes they can!! I used it for hoops this year and it worked like a charm.
VERY easy set up for Mocks and SATS, so it doesn't matter who sets them up.
It's interesting to note that MockDraftCentral.com can accommodate this 3RR setup for us, so there's no concern about doing this with the satellite leagues. I'm certainly interested in that for 2007. We'll see about all of them or the live drafts. Yes they can!! I used it for hoops this year and it worked like a charm.
VERY easy set up for Mocks and SATS, so it doesn't matter who sets them up.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.