3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:13 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:
. KDS options will be spread out opening more chances to land a 1,2 pick if so desired PLUS thwarting the edge the 1,2,3 seem to have drafting #1 in the 1st and 3rd rounds.

Q [/QB]Others have posted that this year's results would have had close to 100% of favored KDS preference in the 1st few draft slots. Which I suspect is correct. They also indicated that this number would probably be around 55-60% with 3RR/KDS. This post, although not specific to percentages also seems to imply that there will be a significant reversal to having early slots as the dominant KDS preference with the advent of 3RR/KDS.
Although, as I've previously stated, I believe 3RR/KDS is an improvement to the current system
based on the curreent player pool; I would spectulate that the early draft slots will still be in the 90%+ range of KDS preferences for both #1 and #2.
So, although 3RR/KDS will tip the competitive scales a bit for the later draft slots and, imo, hurt the competitive balance for at least slots 5 and 6, it will do VERY little, imo, in altering the early draft slots as the most favored KDS slots. It will increase the later slots as secondary choices and will dramatically decrease the mid-early slots as a secondary favorites. I do agree that more participants will benefit in getting a higher KDS choice, due to the fact "some" participants will either not fully comprehend the change or will not bother altering their KDS preference from the default setting.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:22 am

The only way to absolutely level the draft slots would be to have each pair of rounds change the draft order - something like

Round 1 - Teams 1-14 (going up)
Round 2 - Teams 14-1 (going down)
Round 3 - Teams 7-6 (going up)
Round 4 - Teams 6-7 (going down)

For perfect distribution, this would be a 14 round draft; each team would draft from each of the draft positions in different round.

Yes, it is a little complicated, but it can and has been done (likely only in home leagues).
I have asked Greg if we could set up a satellite next year to test drive the draft order.

williamhare · Post by **williamhare** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:56 am

Hook-
I like what you did to round #3. Round #5 could
start with team 8, Round #7 team 9, etc.

Rounds 15-18 could just go back to 1-14 serp-style since little impact at that stage of the draft.
HMAN/PIRANHA-MAN

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:01 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:
The only way to absolutely level the draft slots would be to have each pair of rounds change the draft order - something like

Round 1 - Teams 1-14 (going up)
Round 2 - Teams 14-1 (going down)
Round 3 - Teams 7-6 (going up)
Round 4 - Teams 6-7 (going down)

For perfect distribution, this would be a 14 round draft; each team would draft from each of the draft positions in different round.

Yes, it is a little complicated, but it can and has been done (likely only in home leagues).
I have asked Greg if we could set up a satellite next year to test drive the draft order. Capt., you probably have a more significant bank of experience to call upon in these matters, but intuitively I do not see where a system like this would do much in leveling the playing field. For instance, pick #1 would get picks, #1, 28, 29 and 56 in a "normal" serpentine draft. Under your scenario, I believe, pick #1 would get picks #1, 28, 35 and 56. So "slightly" worse. the middle picks would do better in rounds 3 and 4 because they are choosing early in both those rounds but the later picks would do worse because they would be getting later picks in round 4. So, this system hurts the picks at both ends and helps the middle picks. I do not see how that would help level the playing field. And, of course benefitting with an earlier pick in the later rounds has negligible value, as after the first 6 or 7 rounds picks become somewhat homogenous. Although there is certainly benefit, it isn't material in later rounds.

joetreff · Post by **joetreff** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:44 am

Felix,
Data is showing that players coming out of the 1-2-3 spot are WAY dominant over the rest of the field. LT/LJ, SA last yr, LT before that, Priest and his TD years, same with M.Faulk, E.Smith, B.Sanders etc

Quahogs, what data? The data I have is from the 10 years of local fantasy leagues. Jamal Lewis in his 2000 yard season was a #7 pick at best. Priest Holmes was a #1 pick for fantasy 1 time because he never got the respect, Barry Sanders was always a top pick but never ended up #1 at the end of the year.

Only data that backs up 3RR is how many years did the consensus #1 pick end up #1 in fantasy points...How many years did the consensus 1-3 picks end up 1-3 in points, etc...

For every great year that Emmitt/Barry/Terrell Davis had there was at least one Natrone Means, Ricky Watters or Barry Foster who slid past them into the #1 slot for that year in total points. This year with LT and LJ is pretty silly. Last year wasn't silly, they outpaced the other top Rbs by only 4-6 points per week.

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:48 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
[ Good post Pete. You drafted from the back this year, so you should know.

This is NOT a one year phenomenon with LT. And not only that, but this isn't about the first round picks. This is about leveling the field in the third round, where many of the key picks are had near the top of the third round. Switching that levels things out for all 14 teams, hopefully. [/QB][/quote]

This has got to be pounded into people! This is exactly what it's about.

LT teams would still dominate this year, just not to the same degree.

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:50 am

Originally posted by SNAKE:
...SNAKE fully understands the potential beneficial ramifications of 3RR for those owners drafting from the back of the draft and the potential pitfalls for those owners drafting from the front of the draft (thus potentially achieving the objective of leveling the playing field), but unless SNAKE is missing something here, WHAT exactly are the potential benefits and/or pitfalls regarding those owners drafting from the middle slots?...thanks...SNAKE Picks 4-7 get to pick earlier in round 4 than they did before.

Everyone needs to go look at their draft results from this year. You will see that this isn't that drastic of a change.

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:17 am

Greg,

Is there any way to get all 23 drafts in one document in either a word or excel format? If so, I will evaluate them and outline what this change could have done to this years season.

joetreff · Post by **joetreff** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:33 am

Its called slippery slope I think, Humans rely too much on one example to prove patterns or to expect a pattern. There is one year that the league winner distribution could look the way it does, 2006.

Show me a fantasy football magazine from 2005 or earlier and show me where they got the top 2 picks correct. Show me a year where the top scorer had 8 more points per week AND was the top pick before the season started...

I would love to bid actual points for slots, this would work individually for each league but the overall contest would be tainted somehow, there seems no way around it.

I say Vote no for 3RR, Fantasy Football has never needed it for a good reason other then LT in 2006.