3RR/KDS, What Do You Think?

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:46 am

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
Greg,

Is there any way to get all 23 drafts in one document in either a word or excel format? If so, I will evaluate them and outline what this change could have done to this years season. TCH, this would be an extremely interesting analysis and I fully eccourage you to do it; but how relevant is it? Changing the draft order from round 3 on seems like it would alter choices fairly significantly. Possibly even altering many choices prior to round 3. Although most of the same players would be drafted more or less near there ADP, many would be on different teams than your analysis may suggest. But in attempting to analyze the potential 3RR/KDS change this may be as good a starting point as any. I do admire your willingness in providing the masses with a significant amount of topical data.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:02 am

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
Greg,

Is there any way to get all 23 drafts in one document in either a word or excel format? If so, I will evaluate them and outline what this change could have done to this years season. I don't have that, but I'll look. We have the ADP list from STATS and maybe they can combine that for us. We do have all or most of the individual leagues and I could get started e-mailing many of those to you. I'm sure that would help.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:07 am

Originally posted by felixflamingo:
Felix,
Data is showing that players coming out of the 1-2-3 spot are WAY dominant over the rest of the field. LT/LJ, SA last yr, LT before that, Priest and his TD years, same with M.Faulk, E.Smith, B.Sanders etc

Quahogs, what data? The data I have is from the 10 years of local fantasy leagues. Jamal Lewis in his 2000 yard season was a #7 pick at best. Priest Holmes was a #1 pick for fantasy 1 time because he never got the respect, Barry Sanders was always a top pick but never ended up #1 at the end of the year.

Only data that backs up 3RR is how many years did the consensus #1 pick end up #1 in fantasy points...How many years did the consensus 1-3 picks end up 1-3 in points, etc...

For every great year that Emmitt/Barry/Terrell Davis had there was at least one Natrone Means, Ricky Watters or Barry Foster who slid past them into the #1 slot for that year in total points. This year with LT and LJ is pretty silly. Last year wasn't silly, they outpaced the other top Rbs by only 4-6 points per week. ok, last year wasn't silly, yet (as per GG) 43% of the top 28 spots came from spots 1-3. For the years 1998-2001 M.Faulk averaged 20.36/22.40/25.95/23.89 pts per game. For sure he would have been a top 3. I do not recall his competition but I'm sure those #'s gave you a leg up on the other spots. I don't feel this is a 1 yr and done kind of trend.

Q

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:14 am

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
Greg,

Is there any way to get all 23 drafts in one document in either a word or excel format? If so, I will evaluate them and outline what this change could have done to this years season. Greg, please don't do this. Draft strategies would change a lot at beginning of round 2, end of rd 2, beginning of rd 3, etc...

Just analyze as many mocks as you can coming up.

[ November 30, 2006, 03:16 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:14 am

Natrone Means, that is a name I haven't thought about for a while. One of the last Bowling Ball RBs in the game and maybe the last of a dying breed?

joetreff · Post by **joetreff** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:16 am

So 57% came from 4-14? Thats more then half, I think that shows its not balanced. How can we make it 50-50?

joetreff · Post by **joetreff** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:17 am

Yeah, for some reason I remember Natrone was a top 3 pick the first year I did FF. I could be wrong.

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:20 am

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
quote: I don't have that, but I'll look. We have the ADP list from STATS and maybe they can combine that for us. We do have all or most of the individual leagues and I could get started e-mailing many of those to you. I'm sure that would help.
I do not want to create more work for you, I just thought that if they were in a nice neat package, I could save myself from pulling them from each league. I will go ahead and do that if you do not have them in a "clean format".

This data could provide some scenarios along the lines of who could have dropped to whom this year using the real draft data from rounds 3-6 or so? or is this the same as using the adp and a waste of effort? [/QUOTE]How would any of this data be meaninful when the draft strategies for every pick change? Some would change significantly.

joetreff · Post by **joetreff** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:20 am

Sorry, not a top 3 pick, but ended up being a top 3 player.

1994, 1585 total yards, 39 receptions, 12 TDS

not bad, not great though, it was a bad example

joetreff · Post by **joetreff** » Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:39 am

Hey, why not bid for the draft slots with REAL MONEY.