Odds to win NFFC overall Contest

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Mon Aug 04, 2008 6:17 am

Does the phone hook-up guys get a bump in there odds?

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Mon Aug 04, 2008 6:23 am

Assuming the same final numbers as last year (364), there will be 26 leagues. So, 52 teams make the playoffs. Assume another 4 make it under the 10% rules, so there will be a total of 56 playoff teams. I suppose someone could argue before the start of the season that some of those 56 teams have a better advantage of winning the Grand Prize than others, but considering you won't know who those teams are until after week 13, that's a tough argument. After week 13 certain teams will probably look stronger than others and some will believe they have a better overall chance. But, for these purposes, let's assume all teams have about an equal chance of winning.
So, under that scenario the best anyone would have is a 1 in 56 chance of winning. But, that assumes the player in question has a 100% chance of making the playoffs. 4 Years is much too small a sample to make any definitive conclusions, but has anyone made the playoffs all 4 years? I'm sure some have probably made it 3 out of 4 and I'm sure many have made it 2 out of 4; but again 4 years is not a big enough sample to make solid conclusions. But, for these purposes let's assume there are a core group of players that will make it 3 out of 4 years.(which over a long period I believe would be extremely tough to do) But taking that into account the odds go from 1 in 56 to 1 in 75. So, the highest I would rank anybody is 75-1, and even that seems too high.
And, btw, if anyone has been in the playoffs all 4 years how have they done in the playoffs? What about the teams that have made it 3 out of 4 years? My only point is, even if a team consistently makes the playoffs (50-75%) does it improve there chances in any given year over the other playoff teams? That 3 week "dash for the cash" , imo, is pretty much dependent on what team has the right set of players that get "hot" at the right time. And that's not a knock on anyone that has won.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Mon Aug 04, 2008 6:46 am

Good post Riff.

No one has made the playoffs all 4 years, and only 3 teams have made it 3 out 4.

Couldn't agree more about once you "get there", the skill that got you goes way down IMO, as 50% of the teams hae a legit shot at the 100K (not sure what the farthest back anyone has won from to date). You just gotta hope that your guys "get hot" and you are one of the few teams that have them at the time.

That too is not a knock on anyone who has won the whole thing. It is certainly what we all are shooting for.

Getting there is the trick though, as you have ZERO shot of winning the 100K if you can't get to the championship round!

TexasHeat · Post by **TexasHeat** » Mon Aug 04, 2008 6:58 am

I consider myself 827 to 1

mikeybok · Post by **mikeybok** » Mon Aug 04, 2008 7:09 am

Originally posted by TexasHeat:
I consider myself 827 to 1

... come on ... your at least 811 to 1!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Aug 04, 2008 9:09 am

I can think of a couple people I'd put money on at 100-1

Inf4life · Post by **Inf4life** » Mon Aug 04, 2008 9:10 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
I can think of a couple people I'd put money on at 100-1 Who would that be??

mikeybok · Post by **mikeybok** » Mon Aug 04, 2008 9:14 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
I can think of a couple people I'd put money on at 100-1 only because it's a long shot odds bet.

if you really think the last three weeks are a crap shoot (say you give this team the benefit if better prep in the draft and you make them a 40 - 1 (instead of 56-1)) ... they would have to be a 5 - 2 to get to the playoffs (40%). I might make the bet for fun too ... but only because it's a long shot bet where $20 makes $2000.

TexasHeat · Post by **TexasHeat** » Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:18 am

I've done alot of reading today and feel like I've shown some things in my preparation this week.

My updated odds are 744 to 1.