Odds to win NFFC overall Contest

[Ted's Cracked Head]

I give myself a one in three chance of making the championship round and have a shot at the big cash where anything can happen. Those are good enough odds for me to pony up the cash.

This reminds me of the scene in Dumb and Dumber when Carey establishes his one in a million "hope". That scene is a tad less absurd though than this thread.

Off the cuff...

50-1
Lumpy Anderson
Shawn Childs

75-1
Billy Waz
KoQ
These guys are all great but I will volunteer to take book on anyone at 100-1 or greater. GG, you want all 4 for $100 each.

I guess I better work on odds for the "field" after all of the "experts" odds are set.

[Ted's Cracked Head]

GG,

If you want odds, I'll give you 3/2 that you don't finish higher than me in each of the main events. $100 total points, 16 weeks? or a combined total for both events over 16 weeks? or both?

[ August 05, 2008, 09:14 AM: Message edited by: Ted's Cracked Head ]

[mikeybok]

Originally posted by Z-Men:
quote:Originally posted by Ugly Yellow Tomatoes:
quote:Originally posted by Z-Men:

So running the numbers we have (2.5/6) x (1/50) approximately equals a 1 out of 120 shot for the top players in the NFFC.

But, I know some that are better than the best, so I would agree with Gekko in that there's a small handful of people who I'd put money on 100-1 to win the NFFC main. -z- I can agree with this ... so assuming both events filled up ... the best of the best have a 10,000 to 1 shot at the $1,000,000. the top players have a 15,000 to 1 shot ... but it's still "A SHOT AT A MILLION BUCKS"! [/QUOTE]Unless they draft similar players, then it could be back down to less than 500-1 or thereabouts, depending on how many similar players are drafted. -z- [/QUOTE]In auctions ... I agree.

Tough to get two teams to look the same when you have 12 vs 14 team leagues where it's serpentine.

I guess the overlap could be on flyer's ... but the 100 to 1 on any 396 player NFFC contest seems like the very low to me. Even the 50 to 1 and 75 to 1 and 100 to 1 have problems here. Lumpy would be my favorite to win also ... but twice as likely to win their league as the third or fourth best player ... I don't see it. So if GG is 2 to 1 to make the playoffs ... I guess Lumpy is 1 to 1???

[bmiller]

[/QUOTE]These guys are all great but I will volunteer to take book on anyone at 100-1 or greater. GG, you want all 4 for $100 each.

I guess I better work on odds for the "field" after all of the "experts" odds are set. [/QB][/quote]

I will be more than happy to take that field bet too when all the back patters are done (at least at their odds) I should be able to get around 340 teams at 1-1.

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
GG,

If you want odds, I'll give you 3/2 that you don't finish higher than me in each of the main events. $100 total points, 16 weeks? or a combined total for both events over 16 weeks? or both? rob - are you having someone help you in the main? seriously your recent DC's are among the worst i've seen from anyone, let alone from a past nffc champ

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
These guys are all great but I will volunteer to take book on anyone at 100-1 or greater. GG, you want all 4 for $100 each.

I guess I better work on odds for the "field" after all of the "experts" odds are set. the nathon nnoy school of financial management says not to make "bets"

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by bmiller:
back patters

[Inf4life]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
GG,

If you want odds, I'll give you 3/2 that you don't finish higher than me in each of the main events. $100 total points, 16 weeks? or a combined total for both events over 16 weeks? or both? rob - are you having someone help you in the main? seriously your recent DC's are among the worst i've seen from anyone, let alone from a past nffc champ [/QUOTE]*has popcorn ready*

[bmiller]

Originally posted by Z-Men:

So essentially a top FF'er has about a 2.5 out of 6 chance of making it into the NFFC championship bracket.

Now, the championship bracket, to me at least, is mostly a luck thing and skill plays a minor role. So let's just say the skilled owner has a very small edge in outplaying the field.

Let's suppose there are 60-70 teams in the playoffs, I'll go out on a limb and say the truly talented FF'er has about a 1 out of 50 shot of hitting the big prize.

So running the numbers we have (2.5/6) x (1/50) approximately equals a 1 out of 120 shot for the top players in the NFFC.

But, I know some that are better than the best, so I would agree with Gekko in that there's a small handful of people who I'd put money on 100-1 to win the NFFC main. -z- Even this logic is very flawed. None of these things take into account variables that all statisical odds are derived from. What happens if two "elite FF" are in the same league? Even with the semi-ridiculous 2.5/6 odds for each there is only a 17% chance both will make the playoffs. Other variables include injuries, suspensions, benchings, free agents within league, draft pick, other league mates, city, ADP of league their in, the list is endless. Each variable affects the odds a certain amount until you try and have less than a 5% error due to including enough of the pertinent variables. At that point you might be able to derive some odds, but all this pulling out of the air would make odds makers bust a gut.

Sorry for the stat dork reply but I couldn't help it.

[ August 05, 2008, 09:54 AM: Message edited by: bmiller ]

[Ted's Cracked Head]

You are here saying that you are maybe 50/1 to win this, doesn't your entry fee suggest you are wagering on your apparent talent? Isn't that a bet?

GG, The only year you finished ahead of me in the Main is the year I didn't even know it existed.

Put your money where your mouth is. I am giving you 3/2 odds and since you already have me beat.....it seems like you would be remiss to not take the bet. It would sure seem that you are passing on a great chance to supplement your income.