Odds to win NFFC overall Contest

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:13 am

Alex,

no odds for anyone other than GG. If you still want action at even odds, email me.

That includes a H2H with you too. $100 would be fine for any event we are in together. That would be the 2 main events here as they are the only high stakes leagues I will be playing in this year.

Maybe the "One Per Point" needs to get fired up?

mikeybok · Post by **mikeybok** » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:21 am

Originally posted by bmiller:
quote:Originally posted by Z-Men:

So essentially a top FF'er has about a 2.5 out of 6 chance of making it into the NFFC championship bracket.

Now, the championship bracket, to me at least, is mostly a luck thing and skill plays a minor role. So let's just say the skilled owner has a very small edge in outplaying the field.

Let's suppose there are 60-70 teams in the playoffs, I'll go out on a limb and say the truly talented FF'er has about a 1 out of 50 shot of hitting the big prize.

So running the numbers we have (2.5/6) x (1/50) approximately equals a 1 out of 120 shot for the top players in the NFFC.

But, I know some that are better than the best, so I would agree with Gekko in that there's a small handful of people who I'd put money on 100-1 to win the NFFC main. -z- Even this logic is very flawed. None of these things take into account variables that all statisical odds are derived from. What happens if two "elite FF" are in the same league? Even with the semi-ridiculous 2.5/6 odds for each there is only a 17% chance both will make the playoffs. Other variables include injuries, suspensions, benchings, free agents within league, draft pick, other league mates, city, ADP of league their in, the list is endless. Each variable affects the odds a certain amount until you try and have less than a 5% error due to including enough of the pertinent variables. At that point you might be able to derive some odds, but all this pulling out of the air would make odds makers bust a gut.

Sorry for the stat dork reply but I couldn't help it. [/QUOTE]lol ... you are actually arguing the same side of the argument as Z-men ... just more conservative.

You missed the thread where someone said GG was 50 to 1 to win BOTH (yes I said BOTH) leagues. 7 to 1 to win the classic NFFC. So we have moved this group of optimists from 7 to 1 ... to 50 to 1 ... it is progress ... just funny that someone could think ANYONE is 7 to 1 to win the main event.

I don't think even GG would rank himself better than 10 to 1 ... although he didn't seem to have a problem or argue with the 7 to 1 odds ...

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:23 am

GG, keep dancing around the topic, which was supposed to be about the Main event.

I have admitted that my satellite performance has not been good in any of the 3 years that have participated in the NFFC events but somehow I manage to do well when it matters to ME most? Go figure. I guess I am just lucky when it counts? You know what, I still do not give two schlitz about satellite hits or misses based on drafts taking place in June and July. They are basically weather balloons sent up to test the atmosphere and look for data for the real deal.

To answer your question, last year I did not cash at all in NFFC and I was in several leagues (sats and 3 main weekend drafts - "O'fer" sums it up, playoffs in a couple but no wins). Financially it was a bad loss all the way around but that was last year. At least I got to write off those losses ve the 100K I rcvd in Jan 2007.

Note: 2 of 3 years here I have cashed nicely, even with no sat wins.

[ August 05, 2008, 10:26 AM: Message edited by: Ted's Cracked Head ]

TOMDOG · Post by **TOMDOG** » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:29 am

TAKE NO PRISONERS ,ROB

YOU DA MAN!!!!!!

Inf4life · Post by **Inf4life** » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:32 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Go Getta:
Stop instigating!!!!!

[/QUOTE]I can't help it. It's always funny watching a johnson measuring contest.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:38 am

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
GG, keep dancing around the topic, which was supposed to be about the Main event.

I have admitted that my satellite performance has not been good in any of the 3 years that have participated in the NFFC events but somehow I manage to do well when it matters to ME most? Go figure. I guess I am just lucky when it counts? You know what, I still do not give two schlitz about satellite hits or misses based on drafts taking place in June and July. They are basically weather balloons sent up to test the atmosphere and look for data for the real deal.

To answer your question, last year I did not cash at all in NFFC and I was in several leagues (sats and 3 main weekend drafts - "O'fer" sums it up, playoffs in a couple but no wins). Financially it was a bad loss all the way around but that was last year. At least I got to write off those losses ve the 100K I rcvd in Jan 2007.

Note: 2 of 3 years here I have cashed nicely, even with no sat wins. so u were an 0fer last year in simply cashing

your 2008 satellite results that i've seen paint a very similar picture as last year.

as for your question on "how can you turn it on when it counts"...there's a rumor that is circulating the fantasy football war rooms that goes like this...you play in as many satellite leagues as you can (with very lackluster results as you've even admitted)...you "sponge" all the info/players you can from the "good" owners. you select those players on draft day.

again, this is just a rumor, but it sure fits the picture i painted earlier, doesn't it? if u play chess, that would be checkmate.

[ August 05, 2008, 10:39 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Inf4life · Post by **Inf4life** » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:44 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
GG, keep dancing around the topic, which was supposed to be about the Main event.

I have admitted that my satellite performance has not been good in any of the 3 years that have participated in the NFFC events but somehow I manage to do well when it matters to ME most? Go figure. I guess I am just lucky when it counts? You know what, I still do not give two schlitz about satellite hits or misses based on drafts taking place in June and July. They are basically weather balloons sent up to test the atmosphere and look for data for the real deal.

To answer your question, last year I did not cash at all in NFFC and I was in several leagues (sats and 3 main weekend drafts - "O'fer" sums it up, playoffs in a couple but no wins). Financially it was a bad loss all the way around but that was last year. At least I got to write off those losses ve the 100K I rcvd in Jan 2007.

Note: 2 of 3 years here I have cashed nicely, even with no sat wins. so u were an 0fer last year in simply cashing

your 2008 satellite results that i've seen paint a very similar picture as last year.

as for your question on "how can you turn it on when it counts"...there's a rumor that is circulating the fantasy football war rooms that goes like this...you play in as many satellite leagues as you can (with very lackluster results as you've even admitted)...you "sponge" all the info/players you can from the "good" owners. you select those players on draft day.

again, this is just a rumor, but it sure fits the picture i painted earlier, doesn't it? if u play chess, that would be checkmate. [/QUOTE]Oh snap!!!

Sound Advice · Post by **Sound Advice** » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:50 am

Rob - You can beat GG by 100 spots in the main for the next 20 years, he'll still be talking, that's what he does. Talk.

Anyone worth their salt in FF knows GG is nowhere near half as good as he thinks.

He's a 364 to 1 braggart. If that.

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:51 am

Rumors. I love it. You are a funny little guy and if people are underestimating me, pefect. Maybe my odds will go up then when they come out?

That system didn't work too well last year.

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:56 am

I learned so much from my opponents from the drafts in May, June and July that I only have one more satellite scheduled for August, the Billy Waz DC. I must have joined so I can get one last look at the "experts" picks.

I will have to schedule a few more to get a better look at who the other players think I should take. Thanks for reminding me.

Thanks to the gang who has drafted with me up to this point for pointing me in the right direction.