Please forgive me if I'm breaking "live chat" protocol by offering my own opinions in Greg's thread, but...
Though most people will likely take Rice before Gore, be careful w/ that. As I've said in other threads, many who are ranking Rice ahead of Gore must be assuming that Boldin's and Stallworth's arrival will have NO impact on Rice?
But if we figure Boldin for 75+ catches and Stallworth for at least 40, unless we just assume that BAL will throw 115 more completions than last year (which would require about 170 more pass attempts), then SOMEONE has to take a hit in the receiving game. I believe that's Rice because unlike last year where Flacco's primary/only downfield read was Mason, then a dumpoff to Rice, now he'll also have Boldin (and maybe Stallworth to look for). If Rice's receptions go down from 78 last year to more like 40 (plus the loss of roughly half of his receiving yardage), then his NFFC points would also go down to around 230 instead of last year's 285. On top of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see his rushes reduced too; if they're throwing more, they're running less, no? That kind of possibility would make me think long and hard about drafting a WR (or QB) before Rice.
Gore, OTOH, does have the injury risk. But w/ the new linemen and Singletary's commitment to increased running, plus an easy schedule, even if Gore misses a couple games, he should easily be able to match last year's stat line of around 250+ NFFC points. If he manages to play all 16 games (which he's done only once, in 2006), he can approach 300 rushes and 50+ receptions, giving him 300-point NFFC upside.
In summary, Gore's team has made off-season moves and appears poised to INCREASE their running; BAL's moves seem to be in the opposite direction, to open things up a bit more for Flacco.
Contrarian opinion or not, I'd take Gore over Rice and not just blindly pay for last year's stats.
[ July 18, 2010, 11:35 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
See ya tomorrow.
